United States Presidential election7 Nov 2028in 728 days Senate D 97% House D 58% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com United States
Closest results
United States · Election results history · 2004 president · Kentucky
Election 2004 Results

Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.

2004 presidential election in Kentucky

George W. Bush (Republican) beat John Kerry (Democrat) in Kentucky in 2004, 59.5% to 39.7%, a margin of 19.9 points and 356,706 votes.

Kentucky voted 17.4 points more Republican than the country as a whole, where the margin was R+2.5.

The Republican hold continued from 2000, when George W. Bush also won.

Republicans led in 108 of the 120 counties and Democrats in 12. The largest, Jefferson, cast 337,350 votes and went to the Democrat by 1.7 points. The closest was Magoffin, where 7 votes separated the two parties.

United States
Results
2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964 1963 1962 1961 1960 1959 1958 1957 1956 1955 1954 1953 1952 1951 1950 1949 1948 1947 1946 1945 1944 1943 1942 1941 1940 1939 1938 1937 1936 1935 1934 1933 1932 1931 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 1925 1924 1923 1922 1921 1920 1919 1918 1917 1916 1915 1914 1913 1912 1911 1910 1909 1908 1907 1906 1905 1904 1903 1902 1901 1900 1899 1898 1897 1896 1895 1894 1893 1892 1891 1890 1889 1888 1887 1886 1885 1884 1883 1882 1881 1880 1879 1878 1877 1876 1875 1874 1873 1872 1871 1870 1869 1868 1867 1866 1865
If only voted How this works
If the polls miss like

Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

Result

CandidatePartyVotesShare
George W. Bush won Republican 1,069,439 59.5%
John Kerry Democratic 712,733 39.7%
All other candidates 13,710 0.8%
Total1,795,882

Every county

CountyDemocratRepublicanOthersTotalMargin
Jefferson 170,158 50.4% 164,566 48.8% 2,626 337,350 D+1.7
Fayette 57,994 46.2% 66,406 52.9% 1,176 125,576 R+6.7
Kenton 22,834 34.0% 43,664 65.1% 625 67,123 R+31.0
Boone 12,391 27.5% 32,329 71.7% 362 45,082 R+44.2
Daviess 15,788 38.1% 25,372 61.2% 323 41,483 R+23.1
Campbell 14,253 35.5% 25,540 63.6% 382 40,175 R+28.1
Warren 14,326 36.1% 25,100 63.2% 285 39,711 R+27.1
Hardin 11,507 31.6% 24,627 67.6% 307 36,441 R+36.0
Madison 11,525 37.5% 18,922 61.6% 260 30,707 R+24.1
McCracken 11,361 38.1% 18,218 61.1% 218 29,797 R+23.0
Bullitt 9,043 31.6% 19,433 67.9% 151 28,627 R+36.3
Oldham 8,080 29.8% 18,801 69.3% 251 27,132 R+39.5
Pike 14,002 52.3% 12,611 47.1% 157 26,770 D+5.2
Pulaski 5,829 22.8% 19,535 76.6% 152 25,516 R+53.7
Franklin 11,620 48.1% 12,281 50.9% 232 24,133 R+2.7
Laurel 5,297 23.8% 16,819 75.5% 148 22,264 R+51.8
Boyd 10,132 46.5% 11,501 52.8% 144 21,777 R+6.3
Christian 6,970 33.2% 13,935 66.3% 110 21,015 R+33.1
Hopkins 6,420 34.1% 12,314 65.4% 109 18,843 R+31.3
Henderson 8,101 43.3% 10,467 56.0% 133 18,701 R+12.7
Jessamine 5,476 29.5% 12,972 69.8% 132 18,580 R+40.3
Floyd 11,132 62.2% 6,612 37.0% 141 17,885 D+25.3
Scott 6,325 37.1% 10,600 62.2% 125 17,050 R+25.1
Nelson 6,524 38.7% 10,161 60.3% 159 16,844 R+21.6
Greenup 7,630 46.4% 8,696 52.9% 109 16,435 R+6.5
Shelby 5,277 32.3% 10,909 66.9% 127 16,313 R+34.5
Graves 6,206 38.2% 9,903 61.0% 120 16,229 R+22.8
Barren 5,216 32.3% 10,822 67.1% 102 16,140 R+34.7
Marshall 6,383 41.1% 9,049 58.3% 89 15,521 R+17.2
Clark 5,661 37.0% 9,540 62.3% 116 15,317 R+25.3
Calloway 5,728 37.8% 9,293 61.4% 124 15,145 R+23.5
Whitley 3,985 29.2% 9,559 70.1% 85 13,629 R+40.9
Muhlenberg 6,636 49.2% 6,749 50.1% 94 13,479 R+0.8
Boyle 4,646 37.2% 7,764 62.2% 80 12,490 R+25.0
Knox 3,822 31.8% 8,108 67.4% 98 12,028 R+35.6
Perry 5,400 46.3% 6,187 53.1% 68 11,655 R+6.8
Woodford 4,480 38.9% 6,937 60.3% 85 11,502 R+21.4
Carter 5,577 50.2% 5,422 48.8% 118 11,117 D+1.4
Harlan 4,332 39.1% 6,659 60.2% 79 11,070 R+21.0
Bell 4,210 38.3% 6,722 61.1% 70 11,002 R+22.8
Meade 3,724 34.0% 7,152 65.3% 75 10,951 R+31.3
Logan 3,768 35.4% 6,815 64.0% 61 10,644 R+28.6
Taylor 2,979 28.9% 7,247 70.4% 69 10,295 R+41.5
Montgomery 4,506 44.0% 5,647 55.2% 77 10,230 R+11.2
Grayson 2,905 28.6% 7,170 70.7% 68 10,143 R+42.0
Mercer 3,224 32.1% 6,745 67.3% 59 10,028 R+35.1
Ohio 3,627 36.2% 6,311 62.9% 90 10,028 R+26.8
Anderson 3,141 32.7% 6,363 66.3% 87 9,591 R+33.6
Johnson 3,288 35.3% 5,940 63.8% 76 9,304 R+28.5
Letcher 4,192 46.2% 4,801 53.0% 72 9,065 R+6.7
Lincoln 2,796 31.5% 5,996 67.7% 71 8,863 R+36.1
Grant 2,818 31.9% 5,951 67.4% 55 8,824 R+35.5
Rowan 4,556 52.3% 4,063 46.7% 87 8,706 D+5.7
Breckinridge 2,884 33.8% 5,580 65.5% 56 8,520 R+31.6
Bourbon 3,198 38.9% 4,953 60.3% 66 8,217 R+21.4
Russell 1,772 22.7% 6,009 76.8% 40 7,821 R+54.2
Harrison 2,807 36.3% 4,855 62.8% 69 7,731 R+26.5
Clay 1,901 24.7% 5,726 74.5% 60 7,687 R+49.8
Wayne 2,616 34.0% 5,027 65.4% 42 7,685 R+31.4
Adair 1,764 23.7% 5,628 75.6% 55 7,447 R+51.9
Knott 4,685 63.4% 2,648 35.8% 61 7,394 D+27.5
Marion 3,399 46.2% 3,905 53.1% 50 7,354 R+6.9
Allen 1,923 26.8% 5,202 72.6% 38 7,163 R+45.8
Mason 2,644 37.3% 4,381 61.9% 54 7,079 R+24.5
Simpson 2,730 38.8% 4,273 60.7% 40 7,043 R+21.9
Spencer 1,970 28.9% 4,816 70.6% 36 6,822 R+41.7
Hart 2,470 36.4% 4,269 62.9% 45 6,784 R+26.5
Garrard 1,841 27.7% 4,784 71.9% 33 6,658 R+44.2
Lawrence 2,705 41.5% 3,755 57.7% 53 6,513 R+16.1
Henry 2,366 36.4% 4,094 63.0% 39 6,499 R+26.6
Caldwell 2,245 35.4% 4,066 64.0% 38 6,349 R+28.7
Casey 1,174 18.6% 5,109 80.8% 38 6,321 R+62.3
Fleming 2,406 38.8% 3,749 60.4% 48 6,203 R+21.7
Rockcastle 1,320 21.4% 4,804 77.9% 42 6,166 R+56.5
Trigg 2,046 33.5% 4,023 65.8% 42 6,111 R+32.4
Pendleton 1,940 32.2% 4,045 67.1% 40 6,025 R+34.9
Union 2,398 40.1% 3,534 59.1% 45 5,977 R+19.0
Larue 1,823 30.5% 4,111 68.9% 34 5,968 R+38.3
Breathitt 3,327 56.0% 2,542 42.8% 75 5,944 D+13.2
Monroe 1,158 19.8% 4,657 79.7% 28 5,843 R+59.9
Magoffin 2,843 49.7% 2,836 49.6% 39 5,718 D+0.1
McCreary 1,530 26.9% 4,121 72.4% 42 5,693 R+45.5
Butler 1,436 25.7% 4,109 73.7% 33 5,578 R+47.9
Estill 1,907 34.2% 3,633 65.2% 35 5,575 R+31.0
Webster 2,304 41.5% 3,207 57.8% 36 5,547 R+16.3
Lewis 1,667 30.4% 3,778 68.9% 39 5,484 R+38.5
Edmonson 1,856 33.9% 3,595 65.6% 30 5,481 R+31.7
Morgan 2,532 48.0% 2,682 50.9% 58 5,272 R+2.8
Washington 1,724 32.9% 3,479 66.4% 33 5,236 R+33.5
Green 1,312 25.2% 3,866 74.3% 28 5,206 R+49.1
Jackson 769 14.9% 4,369 84.4% 40 5,178 R+69.5
Leslie 1,266 25.5% 3,661 73.8% 37 4,964 R+48.2
Powell 2,249 45.3% 2,687 54.2% 24 4,960 R+8.8
Bath 2,608 53.0% 2,269 46.1% 42 4,919 D+6.9
Todd 1,491 31.4% 3,242 68.2% 21 4,754 R+36.8
Owen 1,615 34.1% 3,084 65.0% 42 4,741 R+31.0
Livingston 2,007 42.6% 2,675 56.8% 24 4,706 R+14.2
Martin 1,504 33.1% 2,996 66.0% 39 4,539 R+32.9
McLean 1,823 41.1% 2,584 58.3% 28 4,435 R+17.2
Clinton 952 21.9% 3,369 77.4% 31 4,352 R+55.5
Crittenden 1,438 34.3% 2,726 65.1% 26 4,190 R+30.7
Ballard 1,759 42.1% 2,389 57.2% 29 4,177 R+15.1
Metcalfe 1,472 35.4% 2,645 63.6% 40 4,157 R+28.2
Hancock 1,709 42.4% 2,286 56.7% 34 4,029 R+14.3
Lyon 1,769 45.1% 2,132 54.3% 24 3,925 R+9.2
Carroll 1,688 43.3% 2,175 55.8% 34 3,897 R+12.5
Trimble 1,428 37.7% 2,332 61.5% 30 3,790 R+23.9
Bracken 1,213 33.6% 2,363 65.5% 34 3,610 R+31.9
Cumberland 848 26.2% 2,356 72.7% 35 3,239 R+46.6
Wolfe 1,744 55.3% 1,385 43.9% 26 3,155 D+11.4
Gallatin 1,188 38.7% 1,869 60.8% 16 3,073 R+22.2
Nicholas 1,332 43.5% 1,700 55.6% 27 3,059 R+12.0
Elliott 2,064 69.8% 871 29.5% 22 2,957 D+40.3
Lee 878 30.1% 2,018 69.1% 24 2,920 R+39.0
Fulton 1,340 46.4% 1,527 52.8% 23 2,890 R+6.5
Carlisle 1,102 38.7% 1,734 60.9% 9 2,845 R+22.2
Menifee 1,284 50.8% 1,215 48.1% 29 2,528 D+2.7
Hickman 926 39.5% 1,395 59.6% 21 2,342 R+20.0
Owsley 430 21.5% 1,558 77.9% 11 1,999 R+56.4
Robertson 413 37.9% 670 61.5% 7 1,090 R+23.6

Margin: the Democrat's share of all votes minus the Republican's. Sources and how the results were checked.

Kentucky in every presidential election we hold

YearWinnerMargin
2024 Donald Trump (R) R+30.5
2020 Donald Trump (R) R+25.9
2016 Donald Trump (R) R+29.8
2012 Mitt Romney (R) R+22.7
2008 John McCain (R) R+16.2
2004 George W. Bush (R) R+19.9
2000 George W. Bush (R) R+15.1
1996 Bill Clinton (D) D+1.0
1992 Bill Clinton (D) D+3.2
1988 George H. W. Bush (R) R+11.6
1984 Ronald Reagan (R) R+20.6
1980 Ronald Reagan (R) R+1.4
1976 Jimmy Carter (D) D+7.2
1972 Richard Nixon (R) R+28.6
1968 Richard Nixon (R) R+6.1
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson (D) D+28.4
1960 Richard Nixon (R) R+7.2
1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) R+9.1
1952 Adlai Stevenson II (D) D+0.1
1948 Harry S. Truman (D) D+15.3
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+9.2
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+15.1
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+18.6
1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+18.9
1928 Herbert Hoover (R) R+18.8
1924 Calvin Coolidge (R) R+3.0
1920 James M. Cox (D) D+0.6
1916 Woodrow Wilson (D) D+5.4
1912 Woodrow Wilson (D) D+23.0
1908 William Jennings Bryan (D) D+1.7
1904 Alton B. Parker (D) D+2.7
1900 William Jennings Bryan (D) D+1.7
1896 William McKinley (R) R+0.1
1892 Grover Cleveland (D) D+11.7
1888 Grover Cleveland (D) D+8.3
1884 Grover Cleveland (D) D+12.4
1880 Winfield Scott Hancock (D) D+15.9
1876 Samuel J. Tilden (D) D+24.0
1872 Third party (other)
1868 Horatio Seymour (D) D+49.4