United States Presidential election7 Nov 2028in 729 days Senate D 97% House D 58% Calendar Track record Research
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Election 2021 Results

Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.

2021 governor election results by state and county

Republican Glenn Youngkin won Virginia in 2021, ending eight years of Democratic governors, while Phil Murphy held New Jersey by just over three points.

2 governor races were held in 2021. Democrats won 1 and Republicans 1.

The closest were Virginia (R+1.9) and New Jersey (D+3.2). 1 governorship changed party: Virginia to the Republicans.

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If the polls miss like

Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

About the 2021 governor elections

New Jersey and Virginia voted for governor in 2021, the first year of Joe Biden's presidency, as his approval ratings fell after the withdrawal from Afghanistan and rising inflation. In Virginia, Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by about two points. Youngkin focused on schools and parents' role in education, and he won back suburban voters who had moved toward Democrats during the Trump years. Biden had carried Virginia by ten points a year earlier. In New Jersey, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy won a second term over Republican Jack Ciattarelli by about three points, a much narrower margin than polls had suggested. Murphy became the first Democratic governor of New Jersey re-elected since Brendan Byrne in 1977. The two results together pointed to trouble for Democrats in the 2022 midterms.

Every race

StateDemocratVotesRepublicanVotesOthersMargin
New Jersey Phil Murphy1,339,471 (51.2%) Jack Ciattarelli1,255,185 (48.0%) 20,174 D+3.2
Virginia flip Terence Richard McAuliffe1,599,470 (48.6%) Glenn Allen Youngkin1,663,158 (50.6%) 25,699 R+1.9

Margin: the Democrat's share of all votes minus the Republican's. Margins are Democrat minus Republican, of all votes. Certified results, from the states' own archives, the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Heideman (2026) and Algara & Amlani (2021). How these results were checked.

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