United States · changelog
What moved in the forecast, day by day
Every day our United States forecast changed, newest first: the chance of each chamber, the seat projections, the national House vote and every race whose rating moved. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.
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31 OctSaturday
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30 OctFriday
- Democratic Senate control: 68%, up 16 pts
- Democratic House majority: 83%, up 3 pts
- House projection: 236 Democrats (+5)
- Senate projection: 54 Democrats (+3)
- Alaska Senate: Leans R to Toss-up
- Louisiana Senate: Likely R to Leans R
- Nebraska Senate: Leans R to Toss-up
- Ohio Senate (special): Toss-up to Leans D
- Alaska governor: Leans R to Toss-up
- Alabama governor: Safe R to Likely R
- Florida governor: Likely R to Leans R
- Iowa governor: Leans D to Likely D
- Kansas governor: Likely R to Leans R
- New Mexico governor: Leans D to Likely D
- Ohio governor: Toss-up to Leans D
- Florida's 11th district: Likely R to Leans R
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29 OctThursday
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28 OctWednesday
- House projection: 231 Democrats (+1)
- Minnesota Senate: Leans D to Likely D
- Georgia governor: Leans R to Toss-up
- Tennessee governor: Safe R to Likely R
- North Carolina's 1st district: Leans D to Toss-up
- North Carolina's 11th district: Toss-up to Leans D
- New York's 17th district: Likely D to Leans D
- Ohio's 7th district: Toss-up to Leans R
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27 OctTuesday
- Democratic Senate control: 50%, up 12 pts
- Democratic House majority: 81%, up 4 pts
- House projection: 230 Democrats (+2)
- Senate projection: 51 Democrats (+1)
- National House vote margin: D+6.6 (toward the Democrats by 0.3)
- Iowa Senate: Leans R to Toss-up
- Maine Senate: Toss-up to Leans D
- Michigan governor: Leans D to Likely D
- Nevada governor: Leans R to Toss-up
- Texas governor: Likely R to Leans R
- Vermont governor: Likely R to Leans R
- Arizona's 2nd district: Likely R to Leans R
- Florida's 9th district: Likely R to Leans R
- Kentucky's 6th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Michigan's 4th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Michigan's 7th district: Leans D to Likely D
- Minnesota's 1st district: Likely R to Leans R
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26 OctMonday
- Democratic Senate control: 38%, down 5 pts
- Democratic House majority: 77%, up 4 pts
- House projection: 228 Democrats (+3)
- Senate projection: 50 Democrats (−1)
- National House vote margin: D+6.3 (toward the Democrats by 1.1)
- Nevada governor: Likely R to Leans R
- South Carolina governor: Likely R to Safe R
- South Carolina's 1st district: Likely R to Leans R
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25 OctSunday
- House projection: 225 Democrats (+1)
- Nevada governor: Leans R to Likely R
- Pennsylvania's 1st district: Toss-up to Leans D
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24 OctSaturday
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23 OctFriday
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22 OctThursday
- Democratic House majority: 73%, up 3 pts
- House projection: 225 Democrats (+3)
- Florida's 21st district: Likely R to Safe R
- Iowa's 1st district: Toss-up to Leans D
- Iowa's 2nd district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Kentucky's 6th district: Toss-up to Leans R
- Missouri's 2nd district: Leans R to Toss-up
- North Carolina's 11th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Ohio's 1st district: Likely D to Leans D
- Pennsylvania's 8th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Texas's 35th district: Leans R to Toss-up
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21 OctWednesday
- Democratic Senate control: 45%, down 6 pts
- Democratic House majority: 70%, down 7 pts
- House projection: 222 Democrats (−7)
- National House vote margin: D+5.3 (toward the Republicans by 1.2)
- Kansas Senate: Toss-up to Leans R
- Kentucky Senate: Likely R to Safe R
- Maine Senate: Leans D to Toss-up
- South Dakota Senate: Leans R to Likely R
- Iowa governor: Likely D to Leans D
- Ohio governor: Leans D to Toss-up
- Texas governor: Leans R to Likely R
- Vermont governor: Leans R to Likely R
- Arkansas's 2nd district: Leans R to Likely R
- Florida's 5th district: Likely R to Safe R
- Florida's 11th district: Leans R to Likely R
- Florida's 13th district: Leans R to Likely R
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20 OctTuesday
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19 OctMonday
- Democratic Senate control: 53%, down 15 pts
- Democratic House majority: 77%, down 4 pts
- House projection: 229 Democrats (−4)
- Senate projection: 51 Democrats (−2)
- Alaska Senate: Toss-up to Leans R
- Minnesota Senate: Likely D to Leans D
- Nebraska Senate: Toss-up to Leans R
- Ohio Senate (special): Leans D to Toss-up
- Texas Senate: Leans D to Toss-up
- Florida governor: Leans R to Likely R
- Kansas governor: Leans R to Likely R
- New Mexico governor: Likely D to Leans D
- Oklahoma governor: Leans R to Likely R
- Maine's 2nd district: Leans D to Toss-up
- Missouri's 2nd district: Toss-up to Leans R
- Montana's 1st district: Toss-up to Leans R
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18 OctSunday
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17 OctSaturday
- House projection: 233 Democrats (+1)
- Pennsylvania's 10th district: Toss-up to Leans D
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16 OctFriday
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15 OctThursday
- Democratic Senate control: 64%, up 6 pts
- Democratic House majority: 81%, up 2 pts
- House projection: 232 Democrats (+1)
- Senate projection: 53 Democrats (+1)
- Georgia Senate: Likely D to Safe D
- Florida governor: Likely R to Leans R
- Kansas governor: Likely R to Leans R
- New Mexico governor: Leans D to Likely D
- California's 48th district: Likely D to Safe D
- Maine's 2nd district: Toss-up to Leans D
- Montana's 1st district: Leans R to Toss-up
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14 OctWednesday
- Democratic Senate control: 58%, up 3 pts
- House projection: 231 Democrats (+2)
- Alaska Senate: Leans R to Toss-up
- Idaho Senate: Toss-up to Likely R
- New York's 17th district: Leans D to Likely D
- Texas's 28th district: Likely D to Leans D
- Washington's 5th district: Likely R to Leans R
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13 OctTuesday
- Democratic Senate control: 55%, down 5 pts
- Democratic House majority: 77%, down 3 pts
- House projection: 229 Democrats (−4)
- National House vote margin: D+6.4 (toward the Republicans by 0.6)
- Alaska Senate: Toss-up to Leans R
- Florida governor: Leans R to Likely R
- Kansas governor: Leans R to Likely R
- Florida's 7th district: Toss-up to Leans R
- Florida's 12th district: Leans R to Likely R
- Florida's 25th district: Likely D to Leans D
- Florida's 26th district: Leans R to Likely R
- Georgia's 1st district: Leans R to Likely R
- Georgia's 12th district: Leans R to Likely R
- Iowa's 3rd district: Leans D to Toss-up
- Illinois's 16th district: Likely R to Safe R
- Missouri's 2nd district: Toss-up to Leans R
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10 OctSaturday
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9 OctFriday
- House projection: 233 Democrats (+1)
- Alabama governor: Likely R to Safe R
- Kentucky's 6th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Texas's 2nd district: Likely R to Safe R
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8 OctThursday
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7 OctWednesday
- House projection: 232 Democrats (+1)
- National House vote margin: D+7.0 (toward the Republicans by 0.3)
- Illinois Senate: Likely D to Safe D
- Nebraska Senate: Toss-up to Leans R
- New Mexico Senate: Likely D to Safe D
- South Dakota Senate: Likely R to Leans R
- Texas Senate: Leans D to Toss-up
- Alaska governor: Leans D to Toss-up
- Illinois governor: Likely D to Safe D
- Kansas governor: Likely R to Leans R
- Nebraska governor: Safe R to Likely R
- New Mexico governor: Likely D to Leans D
- Vermont governor: Likely R to Leans R
- Arizona's 1st district: Likely D to Leans D
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4 OctSunday
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28 SepMonday · rebuilt
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27 SepSunday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 62%, up 2 pts
- South Carolina Senate: Likely R to Leans R
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25 SepFriday · rebuilt
- House projection: 231 Democrats (−1)
- National House vote margin: D+7.5 (toward the Republicans by 0.2)
- Tennessee governor: Likely R to Safe R
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23 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- House projection: 232 Democrats (+1)
- Florida Senate (special): Leans R to Likely R
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22 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- Iowa Senate: Toss-up to Leans D
- Iowa governor: Leans D to Likely D
- Kansas governor: Leans R to Likely R
- New Mexico governor: Leans D to Likely D
- Texas governor: Likely R to Leans R
- California's 45th district: Likely D to Safe D
- Iowa's 3rd district: Toss-up to Leans D
- Pennsylvania's 10th district: Leans D to Toss-up
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21 SepMonday · rebuilt
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20 SepSunday · rebuilt
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19 SepSaturday · rebuilt
- House projection: 231 Democrats (−1)
- Texas Senate: Toss-up to Leans D
- Minnesota's 2nd district: Likely D to Safe D
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18 SepFriday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 57%, up 3 pts
- National House vote margin: D+7.5 (toward the Democrats by 0.3)
- Idaho Senate: Safe R to Toss-up
- Nebraska governor: Likely R to Safe R
- New York's 17th district: Leans D to Likely D
- Ohio's 7th district: Toss-up to Leans D
- Washington's 5th district: Likely R to Leans R
- Washington's 8th district: Likely D to Safe D
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16 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 53%, down 3 pts
- House projection: 232 Democrats (+1)
- Senate projection: 52 Democrats (−1)
- National House vote margin: D+7.3 (toward the Democrats by 0.3)
- Minnesota Senate: Likely D to Leans D
- California's 25th district: Likely D to Safe D
- Florida's 16th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Florida's 25th district: Leans D to Likely D
- Montana's 1st district: Leans R to Toss-up
- North Carolina's 1st district: Toss-up to Leans D
- New Jersey's 7th district: Leans D to Likely D
- New Mexico's 3rd district: Likely D to Safe D
- Texas's 35th district: Leans R to Toss-up
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15 SepTuesday · rebuilt
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14 SepMonday · rebuilt
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13 SepSunday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 56%, up 3 pts
- Senate projection: 53 Democrats (+1)
- Alaska Senate: Leans R to Toss-up
- Alaska governor: Safe R to Leans D
- Alaska's at-large district: Likely R to Safe R
- Maryland's 6th district: Likely D to Safe D
- New York's 18th district: Likely D to Safe D
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12 SepSaturday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 53%, up 4 pts
- Senate projection: 52 Democrats (+1)
- Kansas Senate: Likely R to Leans R
- New Hampshire Senate: Leans D to Likely D
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11 SepFriday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 49%, up 5 pts
- Democratic House majority: 76%, up 3 pts
- House projection: 231 Democrats (+2)
- National House vote margin: D+7.1 (toward the Democrats by 0.6)
- Florida Senate (special): Likely R to Leans R
- Minnesota Senate: Leans D to Likely D
- Ohio Senate (special): Toss-up to Leans D
- Oregon governor: Likely D to Leans D
- Connecticut's 5th district: Likely D to Safe D
- Florida's 7th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Florida's 12th district: Likely R to Leans R
- Florida's 26th district: Likely R to Leans R
- Georgia's 12th district: Likely R to Leans R
- Illinois's 14th district: Likely D to Safe D
- Maine's 2nd district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Minnesota's 8th district: Likely R to Leans R
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10 SepThursday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 44%, up 3 pts
- Democratic House majority: 72%, up 3 pts
- House projection: 229 Democrats (+4)
- National House vote margin: D+6.5 (toward the Democrats by 0.6)
- Iowa Senate: Leans R to Toss-up
- Nevada governor: Likely R to Leans R
- Arizona's 4th district: Likely D to Safe D
- California's 22nd district: Leans D to Likely D
- Georgia's 1st district: Likely R to Leans R
- Iowa's 2nd district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Michigan's 3rd district: Likely D to Safe D
- Michigan's 7th district: Toss-up to Leans D
- North Carolina's 11th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Oregon's 5th district: Likely D to Safe D
- Pennsylvania's 8th district: Leans R to Toss-up
- Texas's 28th district: Leans D to Likely D
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8 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- Democratic House majority: 70%, up 3 pts
- House projection: 225 Democrats (+2)
- National House vote margin: D+5.9 (toward the Democrats by 0.7)
- Connecticut's 2nd district: Likely D to Safe D
- Georgia's 2nd district: Likely D to Safe D
- New York's 22nd district: Likely D to Safe D
- Pennsylvania's 7th district: Toss-up to Leans D
- Rhode Island's 2nd district: Likely D to Safe D
- Texas's 34th district: Toss-up to Leans D
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5 SepSaturday · rebuilt
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4 SepFriday · rebuilt
- House projection: 223 Democrats (+2)
- National House vote margin: D+5.2 (toward the Democrats by 0.4)
- California's 1st district: Likely D to Safe D
- New Jersey's 6th district: Likely D to Safe D
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3 SepThursday · rebuilt
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2 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- Democratic House majority: 64%, down 2 pts
- House projection: 221 Democrats (−2)
- National House vote margin: D+4.8 (toward the Republicans by 0.4)
- Texas's 35th district: Toss-up to Leans R
- Virginia's 6th district: Likely R to Safe R
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1 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- House projection: 223 Democrats (−1)
- National House vote margin: D+5.2 (toward the Republicans by 0.2)
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30 AugSunday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 41%, up 3 pts
- Iowa Senate: Leans R to Toss-up
- Maine Senate: Toss-up to Leans D
- South Carolina Senate: Leans R to Likely R
- New Mexico governor: Likely D to Leans D
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29 AugSaturday · rebuilt
- Democratic House majority: 67%, up 5 pts
- House projection: 224 Democrats (+4)
- National House vote margin: D+5.4 (toward the Democrats by 1.0)
- New York governor: Likely D to Safe D
- Florida's 13th district: Likely R to Leans R
- Michigan's 8th district: Leans D to Likely D
- Minnesota's 1st district: Likely R to Leans R
- New Jersey's 3rd district: Likely D to Safe D
- Ohio's 1st district: Leans D to Likely D
- Virginia's 2nd district: Toss-up to Leans D
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28 AugFriday · rebuilt
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27 AugThursday · rebuilt
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26 AugWednesday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 39%, down 4 pts
- Democratic House majority: 62%, down 5 pts
- House projection: 220 Democrats (−4)
- National House vote margin: D+4.5 (toward the Republicans by 1.1)
- New Hampshire Senate: Likely D to Leans D
- Arkansas's 3rd district: Likely R to Safe R
- Florida's 12th district: Leans R to Likely R
- Florida's 26th district: Leans R to Likely R
- Georgia's 1st district: Leans R to Likely R
- Georgia's 12th district: Leans R to Likely R
- Iowa's 2nd district: Toss-up to Leans R
- Indiana's 2nd district: Likely R to Safe R
- Michigan's 8th district: Likely D to Leans D
- North Carolina's 11th district: Toss-up to Leans R
- Ohio's 10th district: Leans R to Likely R
- Pennsylvania's 8th district: Toss-up to Leans R
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25 AugTuesday · rebuilt
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24 AugMonday · rebuilt
- Democratic Senate control: 43%, up 2 pts
- Iowa Senate: Toss-up to Leans R
- South Carolina Senate: Likely R to Leans R
- Rhode Island governor: Likely D to Safe D
- Minnesota's 8th district: Leans R to Likely R
- New Jersey's 11th district: Likely D to Safe D
- Oregon's 2nd district: Likely R to Safe R
- Texas's 28th district: Toss-up to Leans D
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23 AugSunday · rebuilt
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22 AugSaturday · rebuilt
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20 AugThursday · rebuilt
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19 AugWednesday · rebuilt
- National House vote margin: D+5.6 (toward the Republicans by 0.3)
- South Dakota Senate: Safe R to Likely R
- Minnesota governor: Leans D to Likely D
- Florida's 2nd district: Leans R to Likely R
- Maine's 2nd district: Toss-up to Leans R
- New York's 21st district: Leans R to Likely R
- South Dakota's at-large district: Likely R to Safe R
- Washington's 4th district: Leans R to Likely R