United States · What if · scenarios
Call the races. Watch Congress move.
Pick a winner in any of the closest races. Every other race and control of each chamber move with your calls, because we keep only the 5,000 simulated elections in which your calls come true: the same national mood, regional swings and shifts among groups of voters tie the races together.
The Senate
- Nebraska SenateToss-up · 47–53
- South Carolina SenateLeans R · 38–62
- Kansas SenateLeans D · 65–35
- Iowa SenateLeans D · 66–34
- Ohio Senate (special)Leans D · 71–29
- Texas SenateLeans D · 72–28
- Louisiana SenateLeans R · 25–75
- Alaska SenateLeans D · 75–25
- Florida Senate (special)Leans R · 21–79
- Idaho SenateLikely R · 19–81
- Maine SenateLikely D · 83–17
- Mississippi SenateLikely R · 16–84
- South Dakota SenateLikely R · 14–86
- Michigan SenateLikely D · 88–12
- Minnesota SenateLikely D · 94–6
- New Jersey SenateLikely D · 95–5
- Kentucky SenateLikely R · 5–95
- New Hampshire SenateLikely D · 96–4
Governors
- Kansas governorToss-up · 41–59
- Vermont governorToss-up · 59–41
- Nevada governorToss-up · 59–41
- Texas governorLeans R · 39–61
- Alaska governorLeans D · 64–36
- Florida governorLeans R · 36–64
- Georgia governorLeans D · 66–34
- Ohio governorLeans D · 77–23
- New Hampshire governorLeans R · 20–80
- Oklahoma governorLikely R · 15–85
- Wyoming governorLikely R · 15–85
- Wisconsin governorLikely D · 86–14
The House: the closest districts
- OH-15Toss-up · 51–49
- MI-04Toss-up · 53–47
- OH-10Toss-up · 54–46
- OH-07Toss-up · 45–55
- CO-05Toss-up · 43–57
- SC-01Toss-up · 43–57
- AL-02Toss-up · 43–57
- NY-01Toss-up · 43–57
- FL-22Toss-up · 57–43
- WI-03Toss-up · 58–42
- FL-07Toss-up · 42–58
- TX-15Toss-up · 59–41
- CO-03Toss-up · 40–60
- VA-01Toss-up · 60–40
- TX-35Leans D · 62–38
- MN-01Leans R · 37–63
- MO-02Leans D · 63–37
- MT-01Leans D · 64–36
- KY-06Leans D · 64–36
- FL-09Leans R · 35–65
- AZ-02Leans R · 35–65
- IA-03Leans D · 66–34
- FL-16Leans R · 33–67
- MI-10Leans D · 67–33