Every other forecaster has the Democrats favourites for the Senate. We don't.
We give the Democrats a 38% chance of the Senate and 77% of the House. The difference from the others is one decision: the polls have overstated the Democrats in 5 of the last 6 elections, and our forecast allows for it. The others read the polls as they are. After 3 November we will score every forecast here, ours included.
Control of Congress
| Democrats' chance | Senate | House | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Forecast (live) | 38% | 77% | today |
| Silver Bulletin | 76% | 95% | 23 Oct |
| Decision Desk HQ | 56% | 80% | 25 Oct |
| Split Ticket | 65% | – | 15 Oct |
Our Senate figures: Democrats 38%, Republicans 57%, an independent who caucuses with neither side decides it in 5%.
Race by race, biggest disagreement first
The chance for the Democrat (in Nebraska, the independent Dan Osborn). Tap a race for its page.
| Race | Us | Silver | Decision | Split | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate | 26% | 63% | 61% | 67% | +38 pts |
| Georgia governor | 31% | – | 56% | – | +25 pts |
| Nevada governor | 31% | – | 52% | – | +21 pts |
| Texas Senate | 47% | 72% | 56% | 72% | +19 pts |
| Iowa Senate | 35% | 59% | 44% | 50% | +16 pts |
| Ohio Senate (special) | 52% | 73% | 56% | 66% | +12 pts |
| Michigan Senate | 59% | – | 67% | 75% | +12 pts |
| Maine Senate | 51% | 72% | 53% | 63% | +12 pts |
| Arizona governor | 85% | – | 73% | – | −12 pts |
| Ohio governor | 53% | – | 61% | – | +8 pts |
| Georgia Senate | 92% | – | 86% | – | −6 pts |
| North Carolina Senate | 94% | 96% | 86% | 95% | −1 pts |
| Michigan governor | 75% | – | 76% | – | +1 pts |
| Nebraska Senate | 29% | 30% | 24% | 28% | −1 pts |
Gap: the other forecasters' average minus ours, in points of the Democrat's chance. A plus means they are more Democratic than we are.
Where the figures come from
- Silver Bulletin: Senate and House 23 Oct (as reported by Newsweek, 23 Oct); races 15 Oct (as reported by MishTalk, 15 Oct).
- Decision Desk HQ: Senate and House 25 Oct; races 25 Oct.
- Split Ticket: Senate and House 15 Oct (as reported by MishTalk, 15 Oct); races 15 Oct (as reported by MishTalk, 15 Oct).
Shown for comparison only: none of these figures is used in our forecast. Ours update with every poll; theirs are as published on the dates shown.