The battleground: 17 days to go

The latest polls, and what each did to our forecast

Newest first. "Effect": how far the poll moved the chance of winning in our forecast, worked out by taking the forecast again without it. In a race with many polls one more moves little; in a House district with one or two polls, a new poll can move the odds by ten points. The biggest move this fortnight: NC-01, +10.7 for Davis.

1. Wed 14 Oct 2026
2. SenateMississippi SenateHyde-Smith +4

   Wedgewood Polls · ● in average · 511 LV · 14 Oct

   Cindy Hyde-SmithRepublican52

   v

   Scott ColomDemocratic48
   Hyde-Smith52Colom48
   Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 52 · Scott Colom (D) 48Hyde-Smith +4
   Effect+7.2 for ColomChance now14% Colom
3. SenateMaine SenateJackson +2

   Suffolk University · ● in average · 500 LV · 14 Oct

   Troy JacksonDemocratic49

   v

   Susan CollinsRepublican47
   Jackson49Collins47
   Troy Jackson (D) 49 · Susan Collins (R) 47Jackson +2
   Effect+1.5 for CollinsChance now68% Jackson
4. SenateMaine SenateJackson +2

   InsiderAdvantage (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 14 Oct

   Troy JacksonDemocratic49

   v

   Susan CollinsRepublican47
   Jackson49Collins47
   Troy Jackson (D) 49 · Susan Collins (R) 47Jackson +2
   Effect+0.8 for JacksonChance now68% Jackson
5. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +4

   ActiVote · ● in average · 400 LV · 14 Oct

   James TalaricoDemocratic52

   v

   Ken PaxtonRepublican48
   Talarico52Paxton48
   James Talarico (D) 52 · Ken Paxton (R) 48Talarico +4
   EffectLittle changeChance now62% Talarico
6. SenateMichigan SenateEl-Sayed +2

   Rasmussen Reports (R sponsor) · ● in average · 798 LV · 14 Oct

   Abdul El-SayedDemocratic46

   v

   Mike RogersRepublican44

   Others 5

   El-Sayed46Rogers44Other5
   Abdul El-Sayed (D) 46 · Mike Rogers (R) 44 · Other (OTH) 5El-Sayed +2
   EffectLittle changeChance now77% El-Sayed
7. SenateKansas SenateMarshall +1

   InsiderAdvantage (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 14 Oct

   Roger MarshallRepublican48

   v

   Adam HamiltonDemocratic47

   Others 3

   Marshall48Hamilton47Other3
   Roger Marshall (R) 48 · Adam Hamilton (D) 47 · David Graham (OTH) 3Marshall +1
   EffectLittle changeChance now52% Hamilton
8. SenateTexas SenatePaxton +1

   InsiderAdvantage (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 14 Oct

   Ken PaxtonRepublican49

   v

   James TalaricoDemocratic48
   Paxton49Talarico48
   Ken Paxton (R) 49 · James Talarico (D) 48Paxton +1
   EffectLittle changeChance now62% Talarico
9. GovernorTexas governorAbbott +2

   ActiVote · ● in average · 400 LV · 14 Oct

   Greg AbbottRepublican51

   v

   Gina HinojosaDemocratic49
   Abbott51Hinojosa49
   Greg Abbott (R) 51 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 49Abbott +2
   EffectLittle changeChance now29% Hinojosa
10. GovernorNebraska governorPillen +2

    Public Policy Polling (D sponsor) · ● in average · 571 RV · 14 Oct

    Jim PillenRepublican48

    v

    Lynne WalzDemocratic46
    Pillen48Walz46
    Jim Pillen (R) 48 · Lynne Walz (D) 46Pillen +2
    EffectLittle changeChance now12% Walz
11. Tue 13 Oct 2026
12. GovernorGeorgia governorJackson +2

    InsiderAdvantage (R sponsor) · ● in average · 800 LV · 13 Oct

    Rick JacksonRepublican49

    v

    Keisha Lance BottomsDemocratic47
    Jackson49Bottoms47
    Rick Jackson (R) 49 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 47Jackson +2
    Effect+1.1 for BottomsChance now51% Bottoms
13. Mon 12 Oct 2026
14. SenateIowa SenateTurek +1

    YouGov · ● in average · 2,245 LV · 12 Oct

    Josh TurekDemocratic47

    v

    Ashley HinsonRepublican46

    Others 2

    Turek47Hinson46Other2
    Josh Turek (D) 47 · Ashley Hinson (R) 46 · Other (OTH) 2Turek +1
    Effect+1.8 for HinsonChance now54% Turek
15. GovernorIowa governorSand +6

    YouGov · ● in average · 2,245 LV · 12 Oct

    Rob SandDemocratic50

    v

    Zach LahnRepublican44
    Sand50Lahn44
    Rob Sand (D) 50 · Zach Lahn (R) 44Sand +6
    Effect+1.7 for LahnChance now86% Sand
16. SenateMinnesota SenateFlanagan +3

    SurveyUSA · ● in average · 718 LV · 12 Oct

    Peggy FlanaganDemocratic45

    v

    Michele TafoyaRepublican42

    Others 4

    Flanagan45Tafoya42Other4
    Peggy Flanagan (D) 45 · Michele Tafoya (R) 42 · Other (OTH) 4Flanagan +3
    Effect+0.8 for TafoyaChance now79% Flanagan
17. Sun 11 Oct 2026
18. GovernorTexas governorAbbott +4

    Marist College · ● in average · LV · 11 Oct

    Greg AbbottRepublican49

    v

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic45

    Others 1

    Abbott49Hinojosa45Other1
    Greg Abbott (R) 49 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 1Abbott +4
    Effect+1.6 for AbbottChance now29% Hinojosa
19. SenateTexas SenatePaxton +1

    Quantus Insights · ● in average · 854 LV · 11 Oct

    Ken PaxtonRepublican47

    v

    James TalaricoDemocratic47

    Others 2

    Paxton47Talarico47Other2
    Ken Paxton (R) 47 · James Talarico (D) 47 · Other (OTH) 2Paxton +1
    Effect+1.3 for PaxtonChance now62% Talarico
20. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +2

    Marist College · ● in average · LV · 11 Oct

    James TalaricoDemocratic47

    v

    Ken PaxtonRepublican45

    Others 2

    Talarico47Paxton45Other2
    James Talarico (D) 47 · Ken Paxton (R) 45 · Other (OTH) 2Talarico +2
    Effect+0.9 for PaxtonChance now62% Talarico
21. GovernorIowa governorSand +7

    Marist College · ● in average · LV · 11 Oct

    Rob SandDemocratic52

    v

    Zach LahnRepublican45

    Others 2

    Sand52Lahn45Other2
    Rob Sand (D) 52 · Zach Lahn (R) 45 · Other (OTH) 2Sand +7
    Effect+0.9 for LahnChance now86% Sand
22. GovernorFlorida governorDonalds +6

    Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 11 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican49

    v

    David JollyDemocratic43
    Donalds49Jolly43
    Byron Donalds (R) 49 · David Jolly (D) 43Donalds +6
    Effect+0.5 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
23. SenateIowa SenateTurek +3

    Marist College · ● in average · LV · 11 Oct

    Josh TurekDemocratic48

    v

    Ashley HinsonRepublican45

    Others 3

    Turek48Hinson45Other3
    Josh Turek (D) 48 · Ashley Hinson (R) 45 · Other (OTH) 3Turek +3
    EffectLittle changeChance now54% Turek
24. Sat 10 Oct 2026
25. HouseVA-02Luria +3

    Christopher Newport University · ● in average · 702 LV · 10 Oct

    Elaine LuriaDemocratic46

    v

    Jen KiggansRepublican43

    Others 2

    Luria46Kiggans43Other2
    Elaine Luria (D) 46 · Jen Kiggans (R) 43 · Other (OTH) 2Luria +3
    Effect+1.2 for LuriaChance now80% Luria
26. GovernorFlorida governorTied

    Change Research (R sponsor) · ● in average · 920 LV · 10 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican47

    v

    David JollyDemocratic47

    Others 1

    Donalds47Jolly47Other1
    Byron Donalds (R) 47 · David Jolly (D) 47 · Other (OTH) 1Tied
    Effect+1.0 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
27. GovernorFlorida governorDonalds +3

    MDW Communications · ● in average · 2,351 LV · 10 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican47

    v

    David JollyDemocratic44
    Donalds47Jolly44
    Byron Donalds (R) 47 · David Jolly (D) 44Donalds +3
    Effect+0.5 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
28. SenateMichigan SenateEl-Sayed +2

    InsiderAdvantage · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 10 Oct

    Abdul El-SayedDemocratic48

    v

    Mike RogersRepublican46
    El-Sayed48Rogers46
    Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48 · Mike Rogers (R) 46El-Sayed +2
    EffectLittle changeChance now77% El-Sayed
29. SenateFlorida Senate (sp.)Moody +6

    MDW Communications · ● in average · 2,351 LV · 10 Oct

    Ashley MoodyRepublican48

    v

    Angie NixonDemocratic42
    Moody48Nixon42
    Ashley Moody (R) 48 · Angie Nixon (D) 42Moody +6
    EffectLittle changeChance now13% Nixon
30. SenateKansas SenateHamilton +1

    InsiderAdvantage · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 10 Oct

    Adam HamiltonDemocratic48

    v

    Roger MarshallRepublican47
    Hamilton48Marshall47
    Adam Hamilton (D) 48 · Roger Marshall (R) 47Hamilton +1
    EffectLittle changeChance now52% Hamilton
31. Fri 9 Oct 2026
32. HouseMN-01Johnson +2

    SurveyUSA (D sponsor) · ● in average · 565 LV · 9 Oct

    Jake JohnsonDemocratic46

    v

    Brad FinstadRepublican44
    Johnson46Finstad44
    Jake Johnson (D) 46 · Brad Finstad (R) 44Johnson +2
    Effect+4.2 for JohnsonChance now28% Johnson
33. GovernorNew Mexico governorHaaland +7

    Research & Polling Inc. · ● in average · 1,125 LV · 9 Oct

    Deb HaalandDemocratic49

    v

    Gregg HullRepublican42
    Haaland49Hull42
    Deb Haaland (D) 49 · Gregg Hull (R) 42Haaland +7
    Effect+3.7 for HullChance now82% Haaland
34. GovernorWisconsin governorCrowley +4

    YouGov · ● in average · 1,715 A · 9 Oct

    David CrowleyDemocratic46

    v

    Tom TiffanyRepublican42
    Crowley46Tiffany42
    David Crowley (D) 46 · Tom Tiffany (R) 42Crowley +4
    Effect+3.0 for TiffanyChance now77% Crowley
35. GovernorFlorida governorDonalds +11

    Stetson University (D sponsor) · ● in average · 716 LV · 9 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican52

    v

    David JollyDemocratic41

    Others 3

    Donalds52Jolly41Other3
    Byron Donalds (R) 52 · David Jolly (D) 41 · Other (OTH) 3Donalds +11
    Effect+1.5 for DonaldsChance now25% Jolly
36. SenateFlorida Senate (sp.)Moody +11

    Stetson University · ● in average · 716 LV · 9 Oct

    Ashley MoodyRepublican52

    v

    Angie NixonDemocratic41

    Others 2

    Moody52Nixon41Other2
    Ashley Moody (R) 52 · Angie Nixon (D) 41 · Other (OTH) 2Moody +11
    Effect+1.0 for MoodyChance now13% Nixon
37. GovernorOhio governorActon +6

    Bowling Green State University / YouGov · ● in average · 1,000 LV · 9 Oct

    Amy ActonDemocratic50

    v

    Vivek RamaswamyRepublican44
    Acton50Ramaswamy44
    Amy Acton (D) 50 · Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 44Acton +6
    Effect+0.9 for ActonChance now73% Acton
38. SenateOhio Senate (sp.)Brown +6

    Bowling Green State University / YouGov · ● in average · 1,000 LV · 9 Oct

    Sherrod BrownDemocratic48

    v

    Jon HustedRepublican42
    Brown48Husted42
    Sherrod Brown (D) 48 · Jon Husted (R) 42Brown +6
    Effect+0.8 for BrownChance now71% Brown
39. SenateMichigan SenateEl-Sayed +6

    Wedgewood Polls (D sponsor) · ● in average · 607 LV · 9 Oct

    Abdul El-SayedDemocratic53

    v

    Mike RogersRepublican47
    El-Sayed53Rogers47
    Abdul El-Sayed (D) 53 · Mike Rogers (R) 47El-Sayed +6
    EffectLittle changeChance now77% El-Sayed
40. Thu 8 Oct 2026
41. HouseNC-01Buckhout +1

    co/efficient · ● in average · 623 LV · 8 Oct

    Laurie BuckhoutRepublican43

    v

    Don DavisDemocratic42

    Others 2

    Buckhout43Davis42Other2
    Laurie Buckhout (R) 43 · Don Davis (D) 42 · Tom Bailey (OTH) 2Buckhout +1
    Effect+8.0 for BuckhoutChance now74% Davis
42. SenateSouth Carolina SenateGraham +4

    Rasmussen Reports · ● in average · 837 LV · 8 Oct

    Darline GrahamRepublican49

    v

    Annie AndrewsDemocratic45
    Graham49Andrews45
    Darline Graham (R) 49 · Annie Andrews (D) 45Graham +4
    Effect+5.2 for GrahamChance now31% Andrews
43. SenateSouth Dakota SenateBengs +1

    Concord Public Opinion Partners (D sponsor) · ● in average · 400 LV · 8 Oct

    Brian Bengsindependent43

    v

    Mike RoundsRepublican42

    Others 5

    Bengs43Rounds42Other5
    Brian Bengs (I) 43 · Mike Rounds (R) 42 · Other (OTH) 5Bengs +1
    Effect+3.0 for BengsChance now30% Bengs
44. SenateMichigan SenateRogers +2

    Tyson Group · ● in average · 600 LV · 8 Oct

    Mike RogersRepublican46

    v

    Abdul El-SayedDemocratic44
    Rogers46El-Sayed44
    Mike Rogers (R) 46 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 44Rogers +2
    Effect+1.5 for RogersChance now77% El-Sayed
45. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +4

    Trafalgar Group (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,086 LV · 8 Oct

    James TalaricoDemocratic47

    v

    Ken PaxtonRepublican44

    Others 2

    Talarico47Paxton44Other2
    James Talarico (D) 47 · Ken Paxton (R) 44 · Other (OTH) 2Talarico +4
    Effect+1.4 for TalaricoChance now62% Talarico
46. GovernorTexas governorHinojosa +2

    GBAO · ● in average · 800 LV · 8 Oct

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic47

    v

    Greg AbbottRepublican45

    Others 4

    Hinojosa47Abbott45Other4
    Gina Hinojosa (D) 47 · Greg Abbott (R) 45 · Other (OTH) 4Hinojosa +2
    Effect+1.2 for HinojosaChance now29% Hinojosa
47. SenateMaine SenateJackson +2

    Rasmussen Reports · ● in average · 804 LV · 8 Oct

    Troy JacksonDemocratic49

    v

    Susan CollinsRepublican47
    Jackson49Collins47
    Troy Jackson (D) 49 · Susan Collins (R) 47Jackson +2
    EffectLittle changeChance now68% Jackson
48. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +4

    Siena College · ● in average · 617 LV · 8 Oct

    James TalaricoDemocratic48

    v

    Ken PaxtonRepublican44

    Others 3

    Talarico48Paxton44Other3
    James Talarico (D) 48 · Ken Paxton (R) 44 · Other (OTH) 3Talarico +4
    EffectLittle changeChance now62% Talarico
49. GovernorTexas governorAbbott +1

    Siena College · ● in average · 617 LV · 8 Oct

    Greg AbbottRepublican48

    v

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic47

    Others 2

    Abbott48Hinojosa47Other2
    Greg Abbott (R) 48 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 47 · Other (OTH) 2Abbott +1
    EffectLittle changeChance now29% Hinojosa
50. Wed 7 Oct 2026
51. GovernorFlorida governorTied

    St. Pete Polls · ● in average · 836 LV · 7 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican45

    v

    David JollyDemocratic45

    Others 4

    Donalds45Jolly45Other4
    Byron Donalds (R) 45 · David Jolly (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 4Tied
    Effect+1.6 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
52. SenateMinnesota SenateFlanagan +3

    Rasmussen Reports (D sponsor) · ● in average · 856 LV · 7 Oct

    Peggy FlanaganDemocratic48

    v

    Michele TafoyaRepublican45
    Flanagan48Tafoya45
    Peggy Flanagan (D) 48 · Michele Tafoya (R) 45Flanagan +3
    Effect+1.3 for TafoyaChance now79% Flanagan
53. SenateMinnesota SenateFlanagan +4

    Morning Consult (D sponsor) · ● in average · 1,000 RV · 7 Oct

    Peggy FlanaganDemocratic45

    v

    Michele TafoyaRepublican41

    Others 2

    Flanagan45Tafoya41Other2
    Peggy Flanagan (D) 45 · Michele Tafoya (R) 41 · Other (OTH) 2Flanagan +4
    Effect+1.0 for TafoyaChance now79% Flanagan
54. SenateFlorida Senate (sp.)Moody +2

    St. Pete Polls · ● in average · 836 LV · 7 Oct

    Ashley MoodyRepublican47

    v

    Angie NixonDemocratic45

    Others 2

    Moody47Nixon45Other2
    Ashley Moody (R) 47 · Angie Nixon (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 2Moody +2
    Effect+0.7 for NixonChance now13% Nixon
55. SenateMinnesota SenateFlanagan +4

    Mason-Dixon · ● in average · 800 LV · 7 Oct

    Peggy FlanaganDemocratic47

    v

    Michele TafoyaRepublican43

    Others 1

    Flanagan47Tafoya43Other1
    Peggy Flanagan (D) 47 · Michele Tafoya (R) 43 · Other (OTH) 1Flanagan +4
    EffectLittle changeChance now79% Flanagan
56. Tue 6 Oct 2026
57. HouseNC-01Davis +10

    Neighborhood Research · ● in average · 303 LV · 6 Oct

    Don DavisDemocratic51

    v

    Laurie BuckhoutRepublican41
    Davis51Buckhout41
    Don Davis (D) 51 · Laurie Buckhout (R) 41Davis +10
    Effect+10.7 for DavisChance now74% Davis
58. SenateIowa SenateHinson +2

    Emerson College · ● in average · 650 LV · 6 Oct

    Ashley HinsonRepublican47

    v

    Josh TurekDemocratic45

    Others 2

    Hinson47Turek45Other2
    Ashley Hinson (R) 47 · Josh Turek (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 2Hinson +2
    Effect+1.1 for HinsonChance now54% Turek
59. GovernorOhio governorRamaswamy +2

    co/efficient (R sponsor) · ● in average · 925 LV · 6 Oct

    Vivek RamaswamyRepublican45

    v

    Amy ActonDemocratic43

    Others 3

    Ramaswamy45Acton43Other3
    Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 45 · Amy Acton (D) 43 · Other (OTH) 3Ramaswamy +2
    Effect+0.8 for RamaswamyChance now73% Acton
60. SenateMichigan SenateEl-Sayed +1

    Quantus Insights · ● in average · 762 LV · 6 Oct

    Abdul El-SayedDemocratic48

    v

    Mike RogersRepublican47

    Others 2

    El-Sayed48Rogers47Other2
    Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48 · Mike Rogers (R) 47 · Other (OTH) 2El-Sayed +1
    Effect+0.7 for RogersChance now77% El-Sayed
61. GovernorIowa governorSand +4

    Emerson College · ● in average · 650 LV · 6 Oct

    Rob SandDemocratic49

    v

    Zach LahnRepublican45
    Sand49Lahn45
    Rob Sand (D) 49 · Zach Lahn (R) 45Sand +4
    Effect+0.7 for LahnChance now86% Sand
62. SenateOhio Senate (sp.)Husted +1

    co/efficient (R sponsor) · ● in average · 925 LV · 6 Oct

    Jon HustedRepublican44

    Sherrod BrownDemocratic43

    Greg Levyindependent3
    Husted44Brown43Levy3
    Jon Husted (R) 44 · Sherrod Brown (D) 43 · Greg Levy (I) 3Husted +1
    EffectLittle changeChance now71% Brown
63. Mon 5 Oct 2026
64. SenateNebraska SenateRicketts +3

    National Public Affairs · ● in average · 800 LV · 5 Oct

    Pete RickettsRepublican46

    v

    Dan Osbornindependent43

    Others 6

    Ricketts46Osborn43Other6
    Pete Ricketts (R) 46 · Dan Osborn (I) 43 · Other (OTH) 6Ricketts +3
    Effect+6.1 for RickettsChance now41% Osborn
65. HouseKY-06Dembo +9

    Change Research (D sponsor) · ● in average · 524 LV · 5 Oct

    Zach DemboDemocratic47

    v

    Ralph AlvaradoRepublican38

    Others 7

    Dembo47Alvarado38Other7
    Zach Dembo (D) 47 · Ralph Alvarado (R) 38 · Other (OTH) 7Dembo +9
    Effect+5.2 for DemboChance now50% Dembo
66. SenateIowa SenateHinson +2

    CNN / SSRS · ● in average · 801 LV · 5 Oct

    Ashley HinsonRepublican45

    v

    Josh TurekDemocratic43

    Others 11

    Hinson45Turek43Other11
    Ashley Hinson (R) 45 · Josh Turek (D) 43 · Other (OTH) 11Hinson +2
    Effect+3.6 for HinsonChance now54% Turek
67. GovernorOhio governorActon +8

    CNN / SSRS · ● in average · 760 LV · 5 Oct

    Amy ActonDemocratic50

    v

    Vivek RamaswamyRepublican42

    Others 8

    Acton50Ramaswamy42Other8
    Amy Acton (D) 50 · Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 42 · Other (OTH) 8Acton +8
    Effect+2.8 for ActonChance now73% Acton
68. GovernorFlorida governorDonalds +2

    YouGov · ● in average · 3,813 LV · 5 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican47

    v

    David JollyDemocratic45

    Others 1

    Donalds47Jolly45Other1
    Byron Donalds (R) 47 · David Jolly (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 1Donalds +2
    Effect+1.5 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
69. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +6

    YouGov · ● in average · 3,625 LV · 5 Oct

    James TalaricoDemocratic50

    v

    Ken PaxtonRepublican44

    Others 2

    Talarico50Paxton44Other2
    James Talarico (D) 50 · Ken Paxton (R) 44 · Other (OTH) 2Talarico +6
    Effect+1.2 for TalaricoChance now62% Talarico
70. GovernorTexas governorHinojosa +1

    YouGov (R sponsor) · ● in average · 3,625 LV · 5 Oct

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic48

    v

    Greg AbbottRepublican47

    Others 1

    Hinojosa48Abbott47Other1
    Gina Hinojosa (D) 48 · Greg Abbott (R) 47 · Other (OTH) 1Hinojosa +1
    Effect+1.2 for HinojosaChance now29% Hinojosa
71. GovernorTexas governorHinojosa +1

    University of Texas /Texas Politics Project · ● in average · 861 LV · 5 Oct

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic49

    v

    Greg AbbottRepublican48

    Others 3

    Hinojosa49Abbott48Other3
    Gina Hinojosa (D) 49 · Greg Abbott (R) 48 · Other (OTH) 3Hinojosa +1
    Effect+0.7 for HinojosaChance now29% Hinojosa
72. HouseKY-06Dembo +6

    DCCC (D sponsor) · ● in average · 606 LV · 5 Oct

    Zach DemboDemocratic46

    v

    Ralph AlvaradoRepublican40

    Others 6

    Dembo46Alvarado40Other6
    Zach Dembo (D) 46 · Ralph Alvarado (R) 40 · Other (OTH) 6Dembo +6
    Effect+0.7 for DemboChance now50% Dembo
73. GovernorNebraska governorPillen +4

    National Public Affairs · ● in average · 800 LV · 5 Oct

    Jim PillenRepublican44

    v

    Lynne WalzDemocratic40

    Others 12

    Pillen44Walz40Other12
    Jim Pillen (R) 44 · Lynne Walz (D) 40 · Other (OTH) 12Pillen +4
    Effect+0.6 for WalzChance now12% Walz
74. SenateMaine SenateJackson +4

    The Washington Post (R sponsor) · ● in average · 800 LV · 5 Oct

    Troy JacksonDemocratic50

    v

    Susan CollinsRepublican46

    Others 1

    Jackson50Collins46Other1
    Troy Jackson (D) 50 · Susan Collins (R) 46 · Other (OTH) 1Jackson +4
    EffectLittle changeChance now68% Jackson
75. SenateFlorida Senate (sp.)Moody +5

    YouGov · ● in average · 3,813 LV · 5 Oct

    Ashley MoodyRepublican49

    v

    Angie NixonDemocratic44

    Others 1

    Moody49Nixon44Other1
    Ashley Moody (R) 49 · Angie Nixon (D) 44 · Other (OTH) 1Moody +5
    EffectLittle changeChance now13% Nixon
76. SenateOhio Senate (sp.)Brown +6

    CNN / SSRS · ● in average · 760 LV · 5 Oct

    Sherrod BrownDemocratic49

    v

    Jon HustedRepublican43

    Others 7

    Brown49Husted43Other7
    Sherrod Brown (D) 49 · Jon Husted (R) 43 · Other (OTH) 7Brown +6
    EffectLittle changeChance now71% Brown
77. GovernorIowa governorSand +9

    CNN / SSRS · ● in average · 801 LV · 5 Oct

    Rob SandDemocratic51

    v

    Zach LahnRepublican42

    Others 7

    Sand51Lahn42Other7
    Rob Sand (D) 51 · Zach Lahn (R) 42 · Other (OTH) 7Sand +9
    EffectLittle changeChance now86% Sand
78. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +3

    University of Texas /Texas Politics Project · ● in average · 861 LV · 5 Oct

    James TalaricoDemocratic50

    v

    Ken PaxtonRepublican47

    Others 3

    Talarico50Paxton47Other3
    James Talarico (D) 50 · Ken Paxton (R) 47 · Other (OTH) 3Talarico +3
    EffectLittle changeChance now62% Talarico

The Senate: 15 races in doubt

Closest first. 7 days: the change in the chance over the last week, towards the party shown. Polls' weight: how much of the forecast comes from the race's own polls (on average 88% in these races); the rest comes from the state's lean, the national vote and incumbency. Decides control: the share of our 5,000 simulations in which this seat gave the winner its 51st (or 50th) seat.

Governors: 16 races in doubt

Closest first. Columns as in the Senate table.

The House: 65 districts in doubt

Closest first. Only 54 of these 65 districts have polls of their own (on average 37% of their forecast where they do); in the rest the district's lean and the national House vote, our reading of the generic ballot (D+6.6), carry the forecast. That is why a single district poll can move a House seat so far, and why the national polls below matter so much. Decides control: the share of simulations in which this district gave the winner its 218th seat.

The national polls: the generic ballot

Every race leans on the national vote. Our reading of the generic ballot, D+6.6, sets the House districts without polls of their own and feeds the fundamentals of every Senate and governor's race; it also brings older state polls up to date (the national trend line, ↻ on the race pages). Each poll's effect below is how far it moved that reading.

1. Wed 14 Oct 2026
2. Generic ballotRMG Research14 Oct 26 · LV · ●Dem +11.3

   LV · ● in average

   Democrats54

   v

   Republicans43
   Dem54Rep43
   D+11.3 on the decided voteDem +11.3
   Effect on the national voteD +0.4
3. Wed 7 Oct 2026
4. Generic ballotRasmussen Reports7 Oct 26 · LV · ●Dem +5.3

   LV · 1,781 · ● in average

   Democrats49

   v

   Republicans44
   Dem49Rep44
   D+5.3 on the decided voteDem +5.3
   Effect on the national voteR +0.6
5. Sun 4 Oct 2026
6. Generic ballotPew Research Center4 Oct 26 · RV · ●Dem +10

   RV · 3,917 · ● in average

   Democrats44

   v

   Republicans36
   Dem44Rep36
   D+10.0 on the decided voteDem +10
   Effect on the national voteD +0.2
7. Fri 2 Oct 2026
8. Generic ballotCygnal2 Oct 26 · LV · ●Dem +9.5

   LV · 1,500 · ● in average

   Democrats52

   v

   Republicans43
   Dem52Rep43
   D+9.5 on the decided voteDem +9.5
   Effect on the national voteD +0.1
9. Generic ballotYouGov2 Oct 26 · LV · ●Dem +9.1

   LV · 1,572 · ● in average

   Democrats54

   v

   Republicans45
   Dem54Rep45
   D+9.1 on the decided voteDem +9.1
   Effect on the national voteD +0.1
10. Mon 28 Sep 2026
11. Generic ballotHarrisX28 Sep 26 · LV · ●Dem +2

    LV · ● in average

    Democrats51

    v

    Republicans49
    Dem51Rep49
    D+2.0 on the decided voteDem +2
    Effect on the national voteR +1.1
12. Sun 27 Sep 2026
13. Generic ballotQuinnipiac University27 Sep 26 · RV · ●Dem +13.3

    RV · 1,032 · ● in average

    Democrats51

    v

    Republicans39
    Dem51Rep39
    D+13.3 on the decided voteDem +13.3
    Effect on the national voteD +0.8

Every poll · Rating changes and why · How the polls are averaged