The battleground: 16 days to go

The latest polls, and what each did to our forecast

Newest first. "Effect": how far the poll moved the chance of winning in our forecast, worked out by taking the forecast again without it. In a race with many polls one more moves little; in a House district with one or two polls, a new poll can move the odds by ten points. The biggest move this fortnight: PA-10, +13.9 for Stelson.

1. Wed 14 Oct 2026
2. SenateMississippi SenateHyde-Smith +4

   Wedgewood Polls · ● in average · 511 LV · 14 Oct

   Cindy Hyde-SmithRepublican52

   v

   Scott ColomDemocratic48
   Hyde-Smith52Colom48
   Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 52 · Scott Colom (D) 48Hyde-Smith +4
   Effect+7.3 for ColomChance now14% Colom
3. HouseME-02Dunlap +4

   Tulchin Research (D sponsor) · ● in average · 500 LV · 14 Oct

   Matthew DunlapDemocratic50

   v

   Paul LePageRepublican46
   Dunlap50LePage46
   Matthew Dunlap (D) 50 · Paul LePage (R) 46Dunlap +4
   Effect+2.3 for LePageChance now61% Dunlap
4. SenateMaine SenateJackson +2

   Suffolk University · ● in average · 500 LV · 14 Oct

   Troy JacksonDemocratic49

   v

   Susan CollinsRepublican47
   Jackson49Collins47
   Troy Jackson (D) 49 · Susan Collins (R) 47Jackson +2
   Effect+1.5 for CollinsChance now69% Jackson
5. SenateMaine SenateJackson +2

   InsiderAdvantage (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 14 Oct

   Troy JacksonDemocratic49

   v

   Susan CollinsRepublican47
   Jackson49Collins47
   Troy Jackson (D) 49 · Susan Collins (R) 47Jackson +2
   Effect+0.8 for JacksonChance now69% Jackson
6. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +4

   ActiVote · ● in average · 400 LV · 14 Oct

   James TalaricoDemocratic52

   v

   Ken PaxtonRepublican48
   Talarico52Paxton48
   James Talarico (D) 52 · Ken Paxton (R) 48Talarico +4
   EffectLittle changeChance now62% Talarico
7. SenateMichigan SenateEl-Sayed +2

   Rasmussen Reports (R sponsor) · ● in average · 798 LV · 14 Oct

   Abdul El-SayedDemocratic46

   v

   Mike RogersRepublican44

   Others 5

   El-Sayed46Rogers44Other5
   Abdul El-Sayed (D) 46 · Mike Rogers (R) 44 · Other (OTH) 5El-Sayed +2
   EffectLittle changeChance now77% El-Sayed
8. SenateKansas SenateMarshall +1

   InsiderAdvantage (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 14 Oct

   Roger MarshallRepublican48

   v

   Adam HamiltonDemocratic47

   Others 3

   Marshall48Hamilton47Other3
   Roger Marshall (R) 48 · Adam Hamilton (D) 47 · David Graham (OTH) 3Marshall +1
   EffectLittle changeChance now52% Hamilton
9. SenateTexas SenatePaxton +1

   InsiderAdvantage (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 14 Oct

   Ken PaxtonRepublican49

   v

   James TalaricoDemocratic48
   Paxton49Talarico48
   Ken Paxton (R) 49 · James Talarico (D) 48Paxton +1
   EffectLittle changeChance now62% Talarico
10. GovernorTexas governorAbbott +2

    ActiVote · ● in average · 400 LV · 14 Oct

    Greg AbbottRepublican51

    v

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic49
    Abbott51Hinojosa49
    Greg Abbott (R) 51 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 49Abbott +2
    EffectLittle changeChance now30% Hinojosa
11. GovernorNebraska governorPillen +2

    Public Policy Polling (D sponsor) · ● in average · 571 RV · 14 Oct

    Jim PillenRepublican48

    v

    Lynne WalzDemocratic46
    Pillen48Walz46
    Jim Pillen (R) 48 · Lynne Walz (D) 46Pillen +2
    EffectLittle changeChance now12% Walz
12. Tue 13 Oct 2026
13. GovernorGeorgia governorJackson +2

    InsiderAdvantage (R sponsor) · ● in average · 800 LV · 13 Oct

    Rick JacksonRepublican49

    v

    Keisha Lance BottomsDemocratic47
    Jackson49Bottoms47
    Rick Jackson (R) 49 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 47Jackson +2
    Effect+1.1 for BottomsChance now51% Bottoms
14. Mon 12 Oct 2026
15. SenateIowa SenateTurek +1

    YouGov · ● in average · 2,245 LV · 12 Oct

    Josh TurekDemocratic47

    v

    Ashley HinsonRepublican46

    Others 2

    Turek47Hinson46Other2
    Josh Turek (D) 47 · Ashley Hinson (R) 46 · Other (OTH) 2Turek +1
    Effect+1.8 for HinsonChance now54% Turek
16. GovernorIowa governorSand +6

    YouGov · ● in average · 2,245 LV · 12 Oct

    Rob SandDemocratic50

    v

    Zach LahnRepublican44
    Sand50Lahn44
    Rob Sand (D) 50 · Zach Lahn (R) 44Sand +6
    Effect+1.6 for LahnChance now86% Sand
17. SenateMinnesota SenateFlanagan +3

    SurveyUSA · ● in average · 718 LV · 12 Oct

    Peggy FlanaganDemocratic45

    v

    Michele TafoyaRepublican42

    Others 4

    Flanagan45Tafoya42Other4
    Peggy Flanagan (D) 45 · Michele Tafoya (R) 42 · Other (OTH) 4Flanagan +3
    Effect+0.8 for TafoyaChance now79% Flanagan
18. Sun 11 Oct 2026
19. HousePA-10Stelson +3

    Susquehanna Polling & Research (R sponsor) · ● in average · 300 LV · 11 Oct

    Janelle StelsonDemocratic49

    v

    Scott PerryRepublican46
    Stelson49Perry46
    Janelle Stelson (D) 49 · Scott Perry (R) 46Stelson +3
    Effect+13.9 for StelsonChance now69% Stelson
20. GovernorTexas governorAbbott +4

    Marist College · ● in average · LV · 11 Oct

    Greg AbbottRepublican49

    v

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic45

    Others 1

    Abbott49Hinojosa45Other1
    Greg Abbott (R) 49 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 1Abbott +4
    Effect+1.6 for AbbottChance now30% Hinojosa
21. SenateTexas SenatePaxton +1

    Quantus Insights · ● in average · 854 LV · 11 Oct

    Ken PaxtonRepublican47

    v

    James TalaricoDemocratic47

    Others 2

    Paxton47Talarico47Other2
    Ken Paxton (R) 47 · James Talarico (D) 47 · Other (OTH) 2Paxton +1
    Effect+1.3 for PaxtonChance now62% Talarico
22. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +2

    Marist College · ● in average · LV · 11 Oct

    James TalaricoDemocratic47

    v

    Ken PaxtonRepublican45

    Others 2

    Talarico47Paxton45Other2
    James Talarico (D) 47 · Ken Paxton (R) 45 · Other (OTH) 2Talarico +2
    Effect+0.9 for PaxtonChance now62% Talarico
23. GovernorIowa governorSand +7

    Marist College · ● in average · LV · 11 Oct

    Rob SandDemocratic52

    v

    Zach LahnRepublican45

    Others 2

    Sand52Lahn45Other2
    Rob Sand (D) 52 · Zach Lahn (R) 45 · Other (OTH) 2Sand +7
    Effect+0.9 for LahnChance now86% Sand
24. GovernorFlorida governorDonalds +6

    Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 11 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican49

    v

    David JollyDemocratic43
    Donalds49Jolly43
    Byron Donalds (R) 49 · David Jolly (D) 43Donalds +6
    Effect+0.5 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
25. SenateIowa SenateTurek +3

    Marist College · ● in average · LV · 11 Oct

    Josh TurekDemocratic48

    v

    Ashley HinsonRepublican45

    Others 3

    Turek48Hinson45Other3
    Josh Turek (D) 48 · Ashley Hinson (R) 45 · Other (OTH) 3Turek +3
    EffectLittle changeChance now54% Turek
26. Sat 10 Oct 2026
27. HouseVA-02Luria +3

    Christopher Newport University · ● in average · 702 LV · 10 Oct

    Elaine LuriaDemocratic46

    v

    Jen KiggansRepublican43

    Others 2

    Luria46Kiggans43Other2
    Elaine Luria (D) 46 · Jen Kiggans (R) 43 · Other (OTH) 2Luria +3
    Effect+1.2 for LuriaChance now80% Luria
28. GovernorFlorida governorTied

    Change Research (R sponsor) · ● in average · 920 LV · 10 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican47

    v

    David JollyDemocratic47

    Others 1

    Donalds47Jolly47Other1
    Byron Donalds (R) 47 · David Jolly (D) 47 · Other (OTH) 1Tied
    Effect+1.0 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
29. GovernorFlorida governorDonalds +3

    MDW Communications · ● in average · 2,351 LV · 10 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican47

    v

    David JollyDemocratic44
    Donalds47Jolly44
    Byron Donalds (R) 47 · David Jolly (D) 44Donalds +3
    Effect+0.5 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
30. SenateMichigan SenateEl-Sayed +2

    InsiderAdvantage · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 10 Oct

    Abdul El-SayedDemocratic48

    v

    Mike RogersRepublican46
    El-Sayed48Rogers46
    Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48 · Mike Rogers (R) 46El-Sayed +2
    EffectLittle changeChance now77% El-Sayed
31. SenateFlorida Senate (sp.)Moody +6

    MDW Communications · ● in average · 2,351 LV · 10 Oct

    Ashley MoodyRepublican48

    v

    Angie NixonDemocratic42
    Moody48Nixon42
    Ashley Moody (R) 48 · Angie Nixon (D) 42Moody +6
    EffectLittle changeChance now13% Nixon
32. SenateKansas SenateHamilton +1

    InsiderAdvantage · ● in average · 1,200 LV · 10 Oct

    Adam HamiltonDemocratic48

    v

    Roger MarshallRepublican47
    Hamilton48Marshall47
    Adam Hamilton (D) 48 · Roger Marshall (R) 47Hamilton +1
    EffectLittle changeChance now52% Hamilton
33. Fri 9 Oct 2026
34. HouseMN-01Johnson +2

    SurveyUSA (D sponsor) · ● in average · 565 LV · 9 Oct

    Jake JohnsonDemocratic46

    v

    Brad FinstadRepublican44
    Johnson46Finstad44
    Jake Johnson (D) 46 · Brad Finstad (R) 44Johnson +2
    Effect+4.3 for JohnsonChance now28% Johnson
35. GovernorNew Mexico governorHaaland +7

    Research & Polling Inc. · ● in average · 1,125 LV · 9 Oct

    Deb HaalandDemocratic49

    v

    Gregg HullRepublican42
    Haaland49Hull42
    Deb Haaland (D) 49 · Gregg Hull (R) 42Haaland +7
    Effect+3.6 for HullChance now82% Haaland
36. GovernorWisconsin governorCrowley +4

    YouGov · ● in average · 1,715 A · 9 Oct

    David CrowleyDemocratic46

    v

    Tom TiffanyRepublican42
    Crowley46Tiffany42
    David Crowley (D) 46 · Tom Tiffany (R) 42Crowley +4
    Effect+3.0 for TiffanyChance now78% Crowley
37. GovernorFlorida governorDonalds +11

    Stetson University (D sponsor) · ● in average · 716 LV · 9 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican52

    v

    David JollyDemocratic41

    Others 3

    Donalds52Jolly41Other3
    Byron Donalds (R) 52 · David Jolly (D) 41 · Other (OTH) 3Donalds +11
    Effect+1.6 for DonaldsChance now25% Jolly
38. SenateFlorida Senate (sp.)Moody +11

    Stetson University · ● in average · 716 LV · 9 Oct

    Ashley MoodyRepublican52

    v

    Angie NixonDemocratic41

    Others 2

    Moody52Nixon41Other2
    Ashley Moody (R) 52 · Angie Nixon (D) 41 · Other (OTH) 2Moody +11
    Effect+1.0 for MoodyChance now13% Nixon
39. GovernorOhio governorActon +6

    Bowling Green State University / YouGov · ● in average · 1,000 LV · 9 Oct

    Amy ActonDemocratic50

    v

    Vivek RamaswamyRepublican44
    Acton50Ramaswamy44
    Amy Acton (D) 50 · Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 44Acton +6
    Effect+0.9 for ActonChance now73% Acton
40. SenateOhio Senate (sp.)Brown +6

    Bowling Green State University / YouGov · ● in average · 1,000 LV · 9 Oct

    Sherrod BrownDemocratic48

    v

    Jon HustedRepublican42
    Brown48Husted42
    Sherrod Brown (D) 48 · Jon Husted (R) 42Brown +6
    Effect+0.8 for BrownChance now71% Brown
41. SenateMichigan SenateEl-Sayed +6

    Wedgewood Polls (D sponsor) · ● in average · 607 LV · 9 Oct

    Abdul El-SayedDemocratic53

    v

    Mike RogersRepublican47
    El-Sayed53Rogers47
    Abdul El-Sayed (D) 53 · Mike Rogers (R) 47El-Sayed +6
    EffectLittle changeChance now77% El-Sayed
42. Thu 8 Oct 2026
43. HouseNC-01Buckhout +1

    co/efficient · ● in average · 623 LV · 8 Oct

    Laurie BuckhoutRepublican43

    v

    Don DavisDemocratic42

    Others 2

    Buckhout43Davis42Other2
    Laurie Buckhout (R) 43 · Don Davis (D) 42 · Tom Bailey (OTH) 2Buckhout +1
    Effect+7.9 for BuckhoutChance now74% Davis
44. SenateSouth Carolina SenateGraham +4

    Rasmussen Reports · ● in average · 837 LV · 8 Oct

    Darline GrahamRepublican49

    v

    Annie AndrewsDemocratic45
    Graham49Andrews45
    Darline Graham (R) 49 · Annie Andrews (D) 45Graham +4
    Effect+5.2 for GrahamChance now31% Andrews
45. SenateSouth Dakota SenateBengs +1

    Concord Public Opinion Partners (D sponsor) · ● in average · 400 LV · 8 Oct

    Brian Bengsindependent43

    v

    Mike RoundsRepublican42

    Others 5

    Bengs43Rounds42Other5
    Brian Bengs (I) 43 · Mike Rounds (R) 42 · Other (OTH) 5Bengs +1
    Effect+3.1 for BengsChance now31% Bengs
46. SenateMichigan SenateRogers +2

    Tyson Group · ● in average · 600 LV · 8 Oct

    Mike RogersRepublican46

    v

    Abdul El-SayedDemocratic44
    Rogers46El-Sayed44
    Mike Rogers (R) 46 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 44Rogers +2
    Effect+1.5 for RogersChance now77% El-Sayed
47. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +4

    Trafalgar Group (R sponsor) · ● in average · 1,086 LV · 8 Oct

    James TalaricoDemocratic47

    v

    Ken PaxtonRepublican44

    Others 2

    Talarico47Paxton44Other2
    James Talarico (D) 47 · Ken Paxton (R) 44 · Other (OTH) 2Talarico +4
    Effect+1.4 for TalaricoChance now62% Talarico
48. GovernorTexas governorHinojosa +2

    GBAO · ● in average · 800 LV · 8 Oct

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic47

    v

    Greg AbbottRepublican45

    Others 4

    Hinojosa47Abbott45Other4
    Gina Hinojosa (D) 47 · Greg Abbott (R) 45 · Other (OTH) 4Hinojosa +2
    Effect+1.2 for HinojosaChance now30% Hinojosa
49. SenateMaine SenateJackson +2

    Rasmussen Reports · ● in average · 804 LV · 8 Oct

    Troy JacksonDemocratic49

    v

    Susan CollinsRepublican47
    Jackson49Collins47
    Troy Jackson (D) 49 · Susan Collins (R) 47Jackson +2
    EffectLittle changeChance now69% Jackson
50. SenateTexas SenateTalarico +4

    Siena College · ● in average · 617 LV · 8 Oct

    James TalaricoDemocratic48

    v

    Ken PaxtonRepublican44

    Others 3

    Talarico48Paxton44Other3
    James Talarico (D) 48 · Ken Paxton (R) 44 · Other (OTH) 3Talarico +4
    EffectLittle changeChance now62% Talarico
51. GovernorTexas governorAbbott +1

    Siena College · ● in average · 617 LV · 8 Oct

    Greg AbbottRepublican48

    v

    Gina HinojosaDemocratic47

    Others 2

    Abbott48Hinojosa47Other2
    Greg Abbott (R) 48 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 47 · Other (OTH) 2Abbott +1
    EffectLittle changeChance now30% Hinojosa
52. Wed 7 Oct 2026
53. GovernorFlorida governorTied

    St. Pete Polls · ● in average · 836 LV · 7 Oct

    Byron DonaldsRepublican45

    v

    David JollyDemocratic45

    Others 4

    Donalds45Jolly45Other4
    Byron Donalds (R) 45 · David Jolly (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 4Tied
    Effect+1.6 for JollyChance now25% Jolly
54. SenateMinnesota SenateFlanagan +3

    Rasmussen Reports (D sponsor) · ● in average · 856 LV · 7 Oct

    Peggy FlanaganDemocratic48

    v

    Michele TafoyaRepublican45
    Flanagan48Tafoya45
    Peggy Flanagan (D) 48 · Michele Tafoya (R) 45Flanagan +3
    Effect+1.3 for TafoyaChance now79% Flanagan
55. SenateMinnesota SenateFlanagan +4

    Morning Consult (D sponsor) · ● in average · 1,000 RV · 7 Oct

    Peggy FlanaganDemocratic45

    v

    Michele TafoyaRepublican41

    Others 2

    Flanagan45Tafoya41Other2
    Peggy Flanagan (D) 45 · Michele Tafoya (R) 41 · Other (OTH) 2Flanagan +4
    Effect+1.0 for TafoyaChance now79% Flanagan
56. SenateFlorida Senate (sp.)Moody +2

    St. Pete Polls · ● in average · 836 LV · 7 Oct

    Ashley MoodyRepublican47

    v

    Angie NixonDemocratic45

    Others 2

    Moody47Nixon45Other2
    Ashley Moody (R) 47 · Angie Nixon (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 2Moody +2
    Effect+0.7 for NixonChance now13% Nixon
57. SenateMinnesota SenateFlanagan +4

    Mason-Dixon · ● in average · 800 LV · 7 Oct

    Peggy FlanaganDemocratic47

    v

    Michele TafoyaRepublican43

    Others 1

    Flanagan47Tafoya43Other1
    Peggy Flanagan (D) 47 · Michele Tafoya (R) 43 · Other (OTH) 1Flanagan +4
    EffectLittle changeChance now79% Flanagan
58. Tue 6 Oct 2026
59. HouseNC-01Davis +10

    Neighborhood Research · ● in average · 303 LV · 6 Oct

    Don DavisDemocratic51

    v

    Laurie BuckhoutRepublican41
    Davis51Buckhout41
    Don Davis (D) 51 · Laurie Buckhout (R) 41Davis +10
    Effect+10.7 for DavisChance now74% Davis
60. SenateIowa SenateHinson +2

    Emerson College · ● in average · 650 LV · 6 Oct

    Ashley HinsonRepublican47

    v

    Josh TurekDemocratic45

    Others 2

    Hinson47Turek45Other2
    Ashley Hinson (R) 47 · Josh Turek (D) 45 · Other (OTH) 2Hinson +2
    Effect+1.1 for HinsonChance now54% Turek
61. GovernorOhio governorRamaswamy +2

    co/efficient (R sponsor) · ● in average · 925 LV · 6 Oct

    Vivek RamaswamyRepublican45

    v

    Amy ActonDemocratic43

    Others 3

    Ramaswamy45Acton43Other3
    Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 45 · Amy Acton (D) 43 · Other (OTH) 3Ramaswamy +2
    Effect+0.8 for RamaswamyChance now73% Acton
62. SenateMichigan SenateEl-Sayed +1

    Quantus Insights · ● in average · 762 LV · 6 Oct

    Abdul El-SayedDemocratic48

    v

    Mike RogersRepublican47

    Others 2

    El-Sayed48Rogers47Other2
    Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48 · Mike Rogers (R) 47 · Other (OTH) 2El-Sayed +1
    Effect+0.7 for RogersChance now77% El-Sayed
63. GovernorIowa governorSand +4

    Emerson College · ● in average · 650 LV · 6 Oct

    Rob SandDemocratic49

    v

    Zach LahnRepublican45
    Sand49Lahn45
    Rob Sand (D) 49 · Zach Lahn (R) 45Sand +4
    Effect+0.7 for LahnChance now86% Sand
64. SenateOhio Senate (sp.)Husted +1

    co/efficient (R sponsor) · ● in average · 925 LV · 6 Oct

    Jon HustedRepublican44

    Sherrod BrownDemocratic43

    Greg Levyindependent3
    Husted44Brown43Levy3
    Jon Husted (R) 44 · Sherrod Brown (D) 43 · Greg Levy (I) 3Husted +1
    EffectLittle changeChance now71% Brown

The Senate: 15 races in doubt

Closest first. 7 days: the change in the chance over the last week, towards the party shown. Polls' weight: how much of the forecast comes from the race's own polls (on average 88% in these races); the rest comes from the state's lean, the national vote and incumbency. Decides control: the share of our 5,000 simulations in which this seat gave the winner its 51st (or 50th) seat.

Governors: 16 races in doubt

Closest first. Columns as in the Senate table.

The House: 64 districts in doubt

Closest first. Only 53 of these 64 districts have polls of their own (on average 37% of their forecast where they do); in the rest the district's lean and the national House vote, our reading of the generic ballot (D+6.6), carry the forecast. That is why a single district poll can move a House seat so far, and why the national polls below matter so much. Decides control: the share of simulations in which this district gave the winner its 218th seat.

The national polls: the generic ballot

Every race leans on the national vote. Our reading of the generic ballot, D+6.6, sets the House districts without polls of their own and feeds the fundamentals of every Senate and governor's race; it also brings older state polls up to date (the national trend line, ↻ on the race pages). Each poll's effect below is how far it moved that reading.

1. Wed 14 Oct 2026
2. Generic ballotRMG Research14 Oct 26 · LV · ●Dem +11.3

   LV · ● in average

   Democrats54

   v

   Republicans43
   Dem54Rep43
   D+11.3 on the decided voteDem +11.3
   Effect on the national voteD +0.4
3. Wed 7 Oct 2026
4. Generic ballotRasmussen Reports7 Oct 26 · LV · ●Dem +5.3

   LV · 1,781 · ● in average

   Democrats49

   v

   Republicans44
   Dem49Rep44
   D+5.3 on the decided voteDem +5.3
   Effect on the national voteR +0.6
5. Sun 4 Oct 2026
6. Generic ballotPew Research Center4 Oct 26 · RV · ●Dem +10

   RV · 3,917 · ● in average

   Democrats44

   v

   Republicans36
   Dem44Rep36
   D+10.0 on the decided voteDem +10
   Effect on the national voteD +0.2
7. Fri 2 Oct 2026
8. Generic ballotCygnal2 Oct 26 · LV · ●Dem +9.5

   LV · 1,500 · ● in average

   Democrats52

   v

   Republicans43
   Dem52Rep43
   D+9.5 on the decided voteDem +9.5
   Effect on the national voteD +0.1
9. Generic ballotYouGov2 Oct 26 · LV · ●Dem +9.1

   LV · 1,572 · ● in average

   Democrats54

   v

   Republicans45
   Dem54Rep45
   D+9.1 on the decided voteDem +9.1
   Effect on the national voteD +0.1
10. Mon 28 Sep 2026
11. Generic ballotHarrisX28 Sep 26 · LV · ●Dem +2

    LV · ● in average

    Democrats51

    v

    Republicans49
    Dem51Rep49
    D+2.0 on the decided voteDem +2
    Effect on the national voteR +1.1
12. Sun 27 Sep 2026
13. Generic ballotQuinnipiac University27 Sep 26 · RV · ●Dem +13.3

    RV · 1,032 · ● in average

    Democrats51

    v

    Republicans39
    Dem51Rep39
    D+13.3 on the decided voteDem +13.3
    Effect on the national voteD +0.8

Every poll · Rating changes and why · How the polls are averaged