Polls · Texas Senate
Siena College , 8 October 2026
Siena College has James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 4 points in Texas Senate, 48% to 44%. Since its previous poll (30 September 2026): James Talarico −3 (51 → 48), Ken Paxton −1 (45 → 44).
| Race | Texas Senate |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 5 October 2026 – 8 October 2026 |
| Stage | General election |
| Sample | 617 (likely voters) |
| Paid for by | Siena University |
| Method | – |
| Release | release |
| In our average | Yes |
Main
 James Talarico D |
48 | |
 Ken Paxton R |
44 | |
| Undecided | 5 | |
| Other | 3 |
Margin on the decided vote: D+4.2; after our adjustments D+3.6, which includes a move of 0.3 points to the Democrats with the national trend since the poll (↻).
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 7 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: Ken Paxton 44% against 47%.
Siena College's previous poll of this race, 30 September 2026 →
Photo credits
- James Talarico: Photo: Antonioaesparza, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:James_Talarico_Press_Conference_(cropped).jpg)
- Ken Paxton: Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K_Paxton.jpg)