Polls · Texas Senate
Trafalgar Group , 8 October 2026
Trafalgar Group has James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 3.5 points in Texas Senate, 47.1% to 43.6%. Since its previous poll (17 September 2026): Ken Paxton −1.4 (45 → 43.6), James Talarico +1.1 (46 → 47.1).
| Race | Texas Senate |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 6 October 2026 – 8 October 2026 |
| Stage | General election |
| Sample | 1,086 (likely voters) |
| Pollster's lean | Mostly works for Republicans |
| Method | mixed mode (live calls, IVR, text, email) |
| Release | release |
| In our average | Yes |
Trafalgar Group survey report, total column
Main
 James Talarico D |
47.1 | |
 Ken Paxton R |
43.6 | |
| Undecided | 7.6 | |
| Other | 1.8 |
Margin on the decided vote: D+3.8; after our adjustments D+9.5, which includes a move of 0.3 points to the Democrats with the national trend since the poll (↻).
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 7 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: Ken Paxton 43.6% against 47%.
Trafalgar Group's previous poll of this race, 17 September 2026 →
Photo credits
- James Talarico: Photo: Antonioaesparza, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:James_Talarico_Press_Conference_(cropped).jpg)
- Ken Paxton: Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K_Paxton.jpg)