Polls · Texas Senate
InsiderAdvantage , 14 October 2026
InsiderAdvantage has Ken Paxton ahead of James Talarico by 1 points in Texas Senate, 49% to 48%. Since its previous poll (9 September 2026): Ken Paxton +3 (46 → 49), James Talarico +1 (47 → 48).
| Race | Texas Senate |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 13 October 2026 – 14 October 2026 |
| Stage | General election |
| Sample | 1,200 (likely voters) |
| Pollster's lean | Mostly works for Republicans |
| Method | – |
| Release | release |
| In our average | Yes |
Main
 Ken Paxton R |
49 | |
 James Talarico D |
48 |
Margin on the decided vote: R+1.0; after our adjustments D+2.5, which includes a move of 0.1 points to the Democrats with the national trend since the poll (↻).
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 5 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: Ken Paxton 49% against 45%.
InsiderAdvantage's previous poll of this race, 9 September 2026 →
Photo credits
- James Talarico: Photo: Antonioaesparza, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:James_Talarico_Press_Conference_(cropped).jpg)
- Ken Paxton: Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K_Paxton.jpg)