United States · 5 November 2024
2.2 pts
- Final polls
- Harris 48.5, Trump 47.7: Harris +0.7 (mean of six final aggregator averages)
- Result
- Trump 49.8, Harris 48.3: Trump +1.5
The final averages had Kamala Harris 0.7 points ahead and Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5, a 2.2-point miss that was smaller than in 2020 but the third presidential election running in which polls understated Trump. Weighting on party and recalled 2020 vote tightened the polls, but they still missed Republicans in Republican areas, the swing of Hispanic voters to Trump and new voters.
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United Kingdom · 4 July 2024
6.9 pts
- Final polls
- Lab 38.6, Con 21.4: Labour +17.2 (average of 19 final polls, BPC)
- Result
- Lab 34.7, Con 24.4: Labour +10.3 (Great Britain)
All 19 final polls listed by the British Polling Council overstated Labour's lead, averaging 17.2 points against an actual 10.3, the largest overestimate of Labour since 1979. Pollsters' reviews pointed to too few older and loyal Conservatives in their samples, high refusal rates, over-engaged online panels and some late switching away from Labour.
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France · 30 June 2024
2.5 pts
- Final polls
- RN and allies 36.1, NFP 28.4 (first round); RN bloc 170–250 seats, largest group in every final projection
- Result
- RN and allies 33.2, NFP 28.0 (first round); seats NFP 178, Ensemble 156, RN and allies 142
The first-round polls were close (RN bloc 36.1 against 33.2, NFP 28.4 against 28.0), but every final seat projection made the RN bloc the largest group with 170 to 250 seats, and it came third with 142. More than 200 withdrawals between the rounds and unusually disciplined voters broke the transfer patterns the projections were built on.
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Netherlands · 22 November 2023
6.9 pts
- Final polls
- PVV 28, GL-PvdA 26, VVD 27 seats (PVV 18.0%, GL-PvdA 17.2%, VVD 17.7%): a three-way tie
- Result
- PVV 23.5% (37 seats), GL-PvdA 15.8% (25), VVD 15.2% (24)
The final polls showed a three-way tie, with the PVV on 27 to 29 seats; it won 37 seats and 23.5% as undecided and tactical voters on the right broke for Wilders in the last two days. All three pollsters missed in the same direction, the mark of a late swing rather than one firm's method.
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Spain · 23 July 2023
4.3 pts
- Final polls
- PP 34.1, PSOE 28.3, Sumar 13.3, Vox 13.1: PP clear, right near a majority
- Result
- PP 33.1 (137 seats), PSOE 31.7 (121), Vox 12.4 (33), Sumar 12.3 (31)
The final polls had the PP 5.7 points ahead of the PSOE and the PP and Vox close to a majority; the PP won by 1.4 points and the right finished six seats short. Every private pollster understated the PSOE, and only the CIS, which named the wrong winner, did not.
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United States · 3 November 2020
3.4 pts
- Final polls
- Biden 51.4, Trump 43.5: Biden +7.9 (mean of three final aggregator averages)
- Result
- Biden 51.3, Trump 46.9: Biden +4.5
The final averages had Joe Biden 7.9 points ahead and he won the popular vote by 4.5, the largest national polling error in 40 years by AAPOR's count, with state polls missing by even more. AAPOR traced at least part of it to nonresponse: the people who answered polls were more Democratic than the people who voted, in ways demographic weighting could not fix.
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Australia · 18 May 2019
5.9 pts
- Final polls
- 2PP Labor 51.4, Coalition 48.6 (first preferences Coalition 38.6, Labor 35.7)
- Result
- 2PP Coalition 51.5, Labor 48.5 (first preferences Coalition 41.4, Labor 33.3)
All five final polls had Labor winning the two-party-preferred vote 51.4 to 48.6; the Coalition won 51.5 to 48.5. The industry inquiry blamed samples that held too many engaged, highly educated voters and were never weighted to correct it.
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United Kingdom · 8 June 2017
5.4 pts
- Final polls
- Con 43.7, Lab 35.8: Conservative +7.9 (average of nine BPC members' final polls)
- Result
- Con 43.5, Lab 41.0: Conservative +2.5 (Great Britain)
The final polls had the Conservatives 8 points ahead and they won by 2.5, losing their majority; the Conservative share was right and Labour's 5 points too low. Raw poll data were close to the result, and the turnout models pollsters had added after 2015 pushed the headlines towards the Conservatives, while Survation and YouGov's MRP model came close.
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Netherlands · 15 March 2017
4.6 pts
- Final polls
- VVD 26.8, PVV 21.4 seats (17.9% v 14.3%): VVD narrowly ahead
- Result
- VVD 21.3% (33 seats), PVV 13.1% (20)
The final polls had the VVD only about five seats ahead of the PVV; Rutte won by 13 seats and 8.2 points. Every pollster understated the VVD, and the pollsters' own re-interviews found panels that leaned left plus a late move to Rutte during the row with Turkey.
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United States · 8 November 2016
1.9 pts
- Final polls
- Clinton 47.3, Trump 43.3: Clinton +4.0 (mean of six final aggregator averages)
- Result
- Clinton 48.2, Trump 46.1: Clinton +2.1
National polls had Hillary Clinton about 4 points ahead and she won the popular vote by 2.1, a normal-sized miss, but state polls overstated her by 5 to 7 points in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all of which Donald Trump won. AAPOR blamed late deciders breaking for Trump and state polls that did not weight by education.
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Spain · 26 June 2016
2.0 pts
- Final polls
- PP 29.7, Unidos Podemos 24.9, PSOE 21.3, Cs 14.2: Podemos ahead of the PSOE
- Result
- PP 33.0 (137 seats), PSOE 22.6 (85), Unidos Podemos 21.2 (71), Cs 13.1 (32)
All 22 final polls had Unidos Podemos second, ahead of the PSOE, and the PP on under 30%; the coalition finished third with 21.2% and the PP won 33.0%. The polls counted the December voters of Podemos and Izquierda Unida as if they would all back the joint list, and more than a million did not.
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Poland · 10 May 2015
11.0 pts
- Final polls
- Komorowski 40.1, Duda 30.1, Kukiz 15.7 (decided voters): Komorowski ten points clear
- Result
- Duda 34.8, Komorowski 33.8, Kukiz 20.8
Every final poll had Bronisław Komorowski about ten points ahead of Andrzej Duda; Duda came first by one point and Paweł Kukiz beat his polls by five. Turnout of 49% and a late break away from the incumbent undid polls that assumed a much larger, steadier electorate.
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United Kingdom · 7 May 2015
6.5 pts
- Final polls
- Con 33.7, Lab 33.6: a dead heat (average of nine BPC members' final polls)
- Result
- Con 37.8, Lab 31.2: Conservative +6.6 (Great Britain)
Every BPC member's final poll had the Conservatives and Labour within a point or two of each other, and the Conservatives won Great Britain by 6.6 points and a majority. The Sturgis inquiry found the samples held too many Labour supporters and too many politically engaged people, and ruled out shy Tories and late swing as major causes.
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Canada · 14 May 2013
11.5 pts
- Final polls
- NDP 42.9, Liberal 35.9: NDP by 7
- Result
- Liberal 44.1, NDP 39.7
Every pollster had the NDP ahead, by 7 points on average; Christy Clark's Liberals won 44.1% to 39.7%. The firms' own reviews found they had weighted young, NDP-leaning voters to their share of the population rather than of the people who vote, and missed a late Liberal turnout edge.
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Italy · 24 February 2013
4.9 pts
- Final polls
- Centre-left 34.6, centre-right 29.3, M5S 15.3, Monti 13.4: Bersani comfortably ahead
- Result
- Centre-left 29.6, centre-right 29.2, M5S 25.6, Monti 10.6
The last polls before the blackout had Bersani's centre-left about 5 points clear and the M5S on 15%; the centre-left won the Chamber by 0.4 points and the M5S took 25.6%, the largest single list. Every pollster understated the M5S and overstated the PD, through a new party with no past vote to weight on, reluctant centre-left switchers and a late surge inside the 16-day blackout.
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Canada · 23 April 2012
16.7 pts
- Final polls
- Wildrose 41.0, PC 34.0: Wildrose by 7
- Result
- PC 44.0, Wildrose 34.3
The final polls averaged Wildrose 41, Progressive Conservatives 34; the PCs won 44.0% to 34.3% and kept a 61-seat majority. Pollsters blamed a late swing of undecided and centre-left voters to the PCs after most firms had stopped polling, made worse by a 14-point jump in turnout.
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Germany · 18 September 2005
7.2 pts
- Final polls
- CDU/CSU 41.5, SPD 33.4: Union eight points clear
- Result
- CDU/CSU 35.2, SPD 34.2
The final polls had the CDU/CSU on 41.5% and eight points clear of the SPD; it won 35.2% and finished less than a point ahead. Every institute overstated the Union by 5.8 to 6.8 points, and their own analyses found a late swing of Union-leaning voters to the FDP that the broadcasters' polls were not allowed to publish.
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France · 21 April 2002
3.6 pts
- Final polls
- Chirac 19.7, Jospin 17.8, Le Pen 13.0: Jospin safely second
- Result
- Chirac 19.9, Le Pen 16.9, Jospin 16.2
The final polls had Jospin on 17.8% and Le Pen on 13.0%; Le Pen took 16.9% and knocked Jospin (16.2%) out of the run-off. Every institute understated the far right while the outgoing left's smaller candidates were overstated, and the Commission des sondages pointed to telephone samples, cautious political weighting and institutes smoothing their published figures.
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United Kingdom · 9 April 1992
8.7 pts
- Final polls
- Lab 39.4, Con 38.3: Labour +1.1 (average of the five companies' final polls)
- Result
- Con 42.8, Lab 35.2: Conservative +7.6 (Great Britain)
The final polls put Labour about a point ahead and the Conservatives won Great Britain by 7.6 points, the worst miss on the lead since polling began. The Market Research Society inquiry blamed late swing, quota samples that did not match the electorate and Conservatives who would not say how they would vote.
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