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Ten countries · poll check

Poll check: what each new poll really says

Some pollsters always show one party higher than everyone else. We measure each pollster against the others polling the same weeks and take its usual lean out. The first figure is the poll as published; the second, the poll as an average pollster would have found it.

United Kingdom · Opinium · 30 Oct · grade B

Labour +8.3 as published; +7.6 allowing for Opinium's usual lean.

Labour 30 → 29 Reform UK 22 → 21 Conservative 20 → 22 Lib Dem 9.8 → 10 Green 8.5
The poll →
Germany · INSA · 30 Oct · grade C

AfD +9 as published; +7.6 allowing for INSA's usual lean.

AfD 29 → 28 CDU/CSU 20 → 21 Greens 15 → 16 SPD 14 Linke 10 FDP 5
The poll →
United Kingdom · BMG Research · 29 Oct

Labour +9, and BMG Research runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

Labour 31 → 30 Reform UK 22 → 21 Conservative 21 Lib Dem 8 Green 8 → 8.6
The poll →
United Kingdom · Find Out Now · 29 Oct

Labour +7.1 as published; +8.9 allowing for Find Out Now's usual lean.

Labour 28 → 31 Conservative 21 → 23 Reform UK 20 → 19 Green 11 → 8 Lib Dem 10
The poll →
Italy · Ipsos Italia · 29 Oct · grade C

FdI +6.8, and Ipsos Italia runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

FdI 27 PD 20 M5S 15 → 14 FN 7.9 FI 6.3 AVS 6.3
The poll →
Italy · Termometro Politico · 29 Oct · grade D

FdI +7.3, and Termometro Politico runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

FdI 28 PD 21 M5S 13 FI 7.5 FN 7.1 AVS 6.3
The poll →
Italy · Eumetra MR · 28 Oct

FdI +7.8, and Eumetra MR runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

FdI 28 PD 20 M5S 12 FI 7.4 FN 6.5 AVS 6.4
The poll →
Italy · Quorum / YouTrend · 28 Oct · grade C

FdI +8.2, and Quorum / YouTrend runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

FdI 28 PD 20 M5S 14 FI 7 → 7.5 FN 7 → 6.5 AVS 6.4
The poll →
Australia · Essential Research · 28 Oct · grade C

Labor ahead as published; One Nation ahead by 1 allowing for Essential Research's usual lean.

Labor 28 → 27 One Nation 28 Coalition 23 → 22 Greens 12 → 13 Others 9.9
The poll →
Poland · Instytut Badań Pollster · 27 Oct · grade C

KO +11 as published; +12 allowing for Instytut Badań Pollster's usual lean.

KO 34 PiS 23 → 22 Konfederacja 12 → 13 KKP 8 → 9.2 Lewica 7.2 Rozwój Plus 5.3
The poll →
United Kingdom · Deltapoll · 26 Oct

Labour +7, and Deltapoll runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

Labour 32 → 31 Reform UK 25 → 24 Conservative 21 Green 8 → 9 Lib Dem 7 → 8
The poll →
United States · Emerson College · 26 Oct · grade B

Democrats +11 as published; +8.7 allowing for Emerson College's usual lean.

Democrats 55 → 54 Republicans 45 → 46
The poll →
Germany · INSA · 26 Oct · grade C

AfD +11 as published; +9.1 allowing for INSA's usual lean.

AfD 30 → 29 CDU/CSU 19 → 20 SPD 14 Greens 14 → 15 Linke 10 FDP 5
The poll →
Germany · Forsa · 26 Oct · grade C

AfD +6 as published; +5.1 allowing for Forsa's usual lean.

AfD 27 CDU/CSU 21 → 22 Greens 16 → 15 SPD 13 → 14 Linke 11 → 10 FDP 4
The poll →
Spain · SocioMétrica · 26 Oct · grade B

PP +5.4 as published; +2.3 allowing for SocioMétrica's usual lean.

PP 32 → 31 PSOE 27 → 28 Vox 19 Sumar 6.1
The poll →
Netherlands · Verian · 26 Oct · grade B

PRO +4.6 as published; +5.2 allowing for Verian's usual lean.

PRO 18 PVV 13 → 13 JA21 10 → 11 VVD 10 → 9.4 D66 9.4 → 11 CDA 9.3
The poll →
Netherlands · Verian · 26 Oct · grade B

PRO +4.6 as published; +5.2 allowing for Verian's usual lean.

PRO 18 PVV 13 → 13 JA21 10 → 11 VVD 10 → 9.4 D66 9.4 → 11 CDA 9.3
The poll →
Australia · Essential Research · 26 Oct · grade C

Labor ahead as published; One Nation ahead by 1 allowing for Essential Research's usual lean.

Labor 28 → 27 One Nation 28 Coalition 23 → 22 Greens 12 → 13 Others 9.9
The poll →
Australia · Roy Morgan Research · 25 Oct · grade C

Labor +2.5, and Roy Morgan Research runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

Labor 26 → 27 Coalition 24 → 23 One Nation 23 → 24 Greens 16 → 14 Others 13
The poll →
Spain · NC Report · 24 Oct · grade D

PP +7.3 as published; +4.1 allowing for NC Report's usual lean.

PP 33 → 31 PSOE 26 → 27 Vox 19 Sumar 6.6 → 7.3
The poll →
Canada · Liaison Strategies · 24 Oct · grade B

Liberal +13, and Liaison Strategies runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

Liberal 44 → 45 Conservative 31 → 31 NDP 14 → 12 Bloc 5.9
The poll →
Germany · INSA · 23 Oct · grade C

AfD +11 as published; +9.6 allowing for INSA's usual lean.

AfD 30 → 29 CDU/CSU 19 → 20 SPD 14 Greens 14 → 15 Linke 10 FDP 4
The poll →
Spain · EM-Analytics · 23 Oct

PP +4.2, and EM-Analytics runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

PP 31 PSOE 27 Vox 19 Sumar 7
The poll →
Netherlands · Peil.nl · 23 Oct · grade C

PRO +6.7, and Peil.nl runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

PRO 20 JA21 13 → 12 PVV 13 → 13 D66 11 → 9.6 VVD 8 → 9.5 FvD 8 → 6
The poll →
Canada · Nanos Research · 23 Oct · grade B

Liberal +20 as published; +18 allowing for Nanos Research's usual lean.

Liberal 47 → 48 Conservative 28 → 30 NDP 13 → 11 Bloc 7.5
The poll →
France · OpinionWay · 22 Oct · grade C

Le Pen +20 as published; +19 allowing for OpinionWay's usual lean.

Le Pen 36 Mélenchon 16 → 17 Glucksmann 13 Philippe 12 Retailleau 6 Zemmour 4
The poll →
France · Ipsos · 22 Oct · grade B

Le Pen +17, and Ipsos runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

Le Pen 34 Mélenchon 17 Philippe 15 Glucksmann 14 → 13 Retailleau 8 Zemmour 4.5
The poll →
France · Cluster17 · 22 Oct · grade B

Le Pen +14 as published; +18 allowing for Cluster17's usual lean.

Le Pen 33 → 35 Mélenchon 19 → 17 Philippe 16 → 15 Glucksmann 13 Retailleau 8.2 → 7.4 Zemmour 3.8
The poll →
Spain · Ateneo del Dato · 22 Oct

PP +3.5, and Ateneo del Dato runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

PP 31 PSOE 28 Vox 20 → 19 Sumar 6.8
The poll →
Poland · Ipsos Polska · 22 Oct · grade C

KO +8.1 as published; +10 allowing for Ipsos Polska's usual lean.

KO 34 → 36 PiS 26 Konfederacja 10 KKP 8.1 → 8.7 Lewica 6.1 PSL 5.1
The poll →
United States · Rasmussen Reports · 21 Oct · grade C

Democrats +5.5 as published; +7 allowing for Rasmussen Reports' usual lean.

Democrats 53 → 53 Republicans 47 → 47
The poll →
France · Harris Interactive · 21 Oct · grade B

Le Pen +18, and Harris Interactive runs close to other pollsters: it stands.

Le Pen 35 → 34 Mélenchon 17 → 16 Philippe 16 → 15 Glucksmann 13 → 14 Retailleau 7 Zemmour 5 → 4.3
The poll →
Poland · Instytut Badań Pollster · 21 Oct · grade C

KO +11 as published; +13 allowing for Instytut Badań Pollster's usual lean.

KO 34 PiS 22 → 21 Konfederacja 12 → 13 KKP 8 → 9.2 Lewica 7.8 Rozwój Plus 5.6
The poll →
Canada · Abacus Data · 21 Oct · grade C

Liberal +16 as published; +20 allowing for Abacus Data's usual lean.

Liberal 48 → 49 Conservative 32 → 29 NDP 9 → 11 Bloc 6 Green 3
The poll →
United States · Marist College · 20 Oct · grade B

Democrats +11 as published; +7.6 allowing for Marist College's usual lean.

Democrats 55 → 54 Republicans 45 → 46
The poll →
Australia · YouGov Australia · 20 Oct · grade C

One Nation +3 as published; +1.2 allowing for YouGov Australia's usual lean.

One Nation 27 → 26 Labor 24 → 25 Coalition 23 → 24 Greens 14 → 13 Others 12
The poll →
United States · Echelon Insights · 19 Oct · grade A

Democrats +5.3 as published; +6.8 allowing for Echelon Insights' usual lean.

Democrats 53 → 53 Republicans 47 → 47
The poll →
Poland · Social Changes · 19 Oct · grade D

KO +4.3 as published; +7.9 allowing for Social Changes' usual lean.

KO 31 → 32 PiS 26 → 24 Konfederacja 13 → 15 Lewica 7.9 → 7 KKP 7.3 → 8.4 Rozwój Plus 4.9 → 5.8
The poll →

How: each poll is set against the average of the other pollsters' polls within 14 days either side; a pollster's lean is its average gap, pulled towards zero when it has few polls. The US generic ballot is checked on the two-party share. A pollster's lean is not the same as being wrong: the field as a whole can miss too, which is what our forecast's correction is for.