Opinium poll, 30 October 2026
Opinium, fieldwork to 30 October 2026: Labour 30.2%, 8.3 points ahead of Reform UK on 21.9%, then Conservative 20.1, Lib Dem 9.8, Green 8.5. Great Britain figures as published, and England's from the pollster's tables, from 2,050 people.
Fieldwork 28 Oct–30 Oct 2026 · sample 2,050 · GB adults
Vote shares
| Party | GB | England |
|---|---|---|
 Conservative |
20.1 | 20.8 |
 Labour |
30.2 | 31.2 |
 Lib Dem |
9.8 | 10.8 |
 Reform UK |
21.9 | 22.9 |
 Restore Britain |
0.0 | 0.0 |
 Green |
8.5 | 8.9 |
| Your Party | 0.0 | 0.0 |
 SNP |
2.9 | 0.0 |
 Plaid Cymru |
1.3 | 0.0 |
| Others | 5.3 | 5.4 |
GB figures: Pollster tables (Grade A).
How the England figure was made
Rebuilt from the English regions in the pollster's tables, weighted by each region's weighted base.
| Basis | HeadlineEquivalent |
|---|---|
| Rounding | Unrounded |
| In the average | Yes Primary (current average) |
| Table | HeadlineVI |
Checks: ok TOTAL_SUMS_100: Answers in the Total column add up to 100% (expected 100, got 100, tolerance 1.5); ok COUNTS_MATCH_SHARES: Printed counts / base match printed percentages, allowing for whole-number rounding (320 cells) (expected 0, got 0, tolerance 0); ok TOTAL_SUMS_100: Answers in the Total column add up to 100% (expected 100, got 100, tolerance 1.5); ok COUNTS_MATCH_SHARES: Printed counts / base match printed percentages, allowing for whole-number rounding (256 cells) (expected 0, got 0, tolerance 0)
Notes
Added from the pollster's tables by the admin page (OpiniumReader 1.0). England: Sum of 4 English regions weighted by their printed bases. GB: UK totals minus the Northern Ireland column.
From what people said to the headline
EnglandEach row is one step in turning people's answers into a published figure. Party shares exclude don't knows. The last row is our reading of the same raw answers. How our reading works →
| Step | LAB | CON | REF | LD | GRN | Lab lead over Con | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
What people told the pollster
Everyone who gave any chance of voting, weighted to match the population. Don't knows set aside.
|
31.2 | 20.8 | 23.0 | 10.8 | 8.9 | +10.4 |
|
|
The pollster's published headline
Base limited to people who might vote; no turnout weight between the full question (V003) and the headline. Don't know and would not vote removed.
|
31.2 | 20.8 | 22.9 | 10.8 | 8.9 | +10.4 |
|
|
Our reading
The raw sample with half the average amount raw samples have missed by since 2015 taken off each party.
|
30.2
-1.0
|
22.8
+2.0
|
22.3
-0.6
|
10.7
-0.1
|
8.7
-0.3
|
+7.4 |
|
In the raw sample, don't know 12.6%, would not vote 2.8% of those asked in England gave no party. England figures: the English regions added up by their weighted bases. Source: 2026_10_VI-2026-10-28-Opinium-Observer-Tables-Web-Tables-1403.xlsx (the pollster's own tables).
Checks made when the tables were read (4 of 4 passed)
- ✓ V003: Printed counts / base match printed percentages, allowing for whole-number rounding (320 cells)
- ✓ V003: Answers in the Total column add up to 100%
- ✓ HeadlineVI: Printed counts / base match printed percentages, allowing for whole-number rounding (256 cells)
- ✓ HeadlineVI: Answers in the Total column add up to 100%