Set the vote, see the Commons
Move each party's share of the vote and watch all 650 seats fall into place: who wins, by how much, and which seats change hands.
Your vote shares
Great Britain, % of the vote. Others take up the difference so the total stays 100.
NewTactical votingWhat if voters gang up on Reform or the Tories? off
Seat projections from national figures assume each party's voters stay put. Many don't: they back whoever can beat the party they like least. Set how many switch, on top of your numbers.
Tested on 2024: from the 2019 result with the real 2024 national votes, plain swing called 479 of 631 seats and gave Labour 329. Adding "Stop the Conservatives" at 65% called 544 and gave Labour 402 (actual 411). A right-wing pact made the 2024 test worse, as there was none. Our published projection does not include tactical voting.
Set Scotland separately
Otherwise Scotland moves with the change across Great Britain.
Set Wales separately
Otherwise Wales moves with the change across Great Britain.
How the seats are worked out
Seats in England move with the change across Great Britain; the SNP and Plaid Cymru follow the Scotland and Wales figures (or today's polls there). Northern Ireland keeps its 2024 result.
The result
Working out the seats…
Every seat
Seats changing hands
Against the 2024 result, closest first.
How the UK election predictor works
Type in your own vote shares for the next general election, or start from today's polls, our projection or a past polling miss, and the predictor works out who wins each of the 650 seats. Each party's change from its 2024 result is added to its 2024 share in every seat in the nation (England, Scotland and Wales separately), the same uniform swing our own projection uses.
The tactical voting section lets you add switching on top: voters squeezing Reform UK or the Conservatives where another party is better placed, or a pact on the right. Our tests show it would have helped in 2024 but not in 2017 or 2019, so it is a what-if, not part of our projection. Every result can be shared by its link.
Our projection for the next general election · What if the polls are wrong? · How the seat model works
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