United Kingdom · changelog
What moved in the forecast, day by day
Every day our United Kingdom forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.
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31 OctSaturday
- Conservative: 150 seats (−1)
- Reform UK: 35 seats (+1)
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30 OctFriday
- Labour majority: 46% chance, up 5 pts
- Labour: 330 seats (+3)
- Reform UK: 34 seats (−2)
- Others: 11 seats (−1)
- Labour: 28.0% of the vote (+0.5)
- Green: 9.5% of the vote (−0.5)
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29 OctThursday
- Labour: 327 seats (+1)
- SNP: 23 seats (−1)
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28 OctWednesday
- Labour: 326 seats (+3)
- Conservative: 151 seats (+2)
- Reform UK: 36 seats (−2)
- SNP: 24 seats (−3)
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27 OctTuesday
- Labour: 323 seats (−4)
- SNP: 27 seats (+4)
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23 OctFriday
- Labour majority: 41% chance, up 5 pts
- Labour: 327 seats (+8)
- Conservative: 149 seats (−1)
- Reform UK: 38 seats (−1)
- SNP: 23 seats (−6)
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21 OctWednesday
- Conservative: 150 seats (−1)
- Lib Dem: 72 seats (+1)
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20 OctTuesday
- Conservative: 151 seats (+1)
- Lib Dem: 71 seats (−1)
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16 OctFriday
- Labour: 319 seats (+3)
- Conservative: 150 seats (−2)
- SNP: 29 seats (−1)
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15 OctThursday
- Labour: 316 seats (+6)
- Reform UK: 39 seats (−6)
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14 OctWednesday
- Conservative: 152 seats (+5)
- Reform UK: 45 seats (−4)
- SNP: 30 seats (−1)
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13 OctTuesday
- Labour majority: 31% chance, down 12 pts
- Labour: 310 seats (−17)
- Conservative: 147 seats (+10)
- Reform UK: 49 seats (+6)
- Others: 12 seats (+1)
- Labour: 26.9% of the vote (−0.9)
- Lib Dem: 10.4% of the vote (+0.4)
- Green: 10.5% of the vote (+0.4)
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9 OctFriday
- Labour majority: 43% chance, down 6 pts
- Labour: 327 seats (−10)
- Conservative: 137 seats (+18)
- Reform UK: 43 seats (−8)
- Conservative: 21.2% of the vote (+0.9)
- Reform UK: 22.4% of the vote (−0.5)
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7 OctWednesday
- Labour majority: 49% chance, up 11 pts
- Labour: 337 seats (+21)
- Conservative: 119 seats (−15)
- Reform UK: 51 seats (−4)
- Others: 11 seats (−1)
- Plaid Cymru: 6 seats (−1)
- Labour: 28.1% of the vote (+1.6)
- Conservative: 20.3% of the vote (+0.5)
- Reform UK: 22.9% of the vote (+1.0)
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6 OctTuesday
- Labour majority: 39% chance, up 12 pts
- Labour: 316 seats (+14)
- Conservative: 134 seats (+7)
- Lib Dem: 72 seats (−3)
- Reform UK: 55 seats (−16)
- Others: 12 seats (−1)
- Green: 4 seats (−1)
- Labour: 26.5% of the vote (+1.0)
- Lib Dem: 9.7% of the vote (−0.5)
- Reform UK: 21.8% of the vote (−0.5)
- Green: 10.2% of the vote (−0.5)
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3 OctSaturday
- Labour: 302 seats (+5)
- Conservative: 127 seats (−9)
- Lib Dem: 75 seats (+2)
- Reform UK: 71 seats (+2)
- Labour: 25.5% of the vote (+0.5)
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2 OctFriday
- Labour: 297 seats (+8)
- Conservative: 136 seats (−2)
- Lib Dem: 73 seats (−2)
- Reform UK: 69 seats (−4)
- Labour: 25.0% of the vote (+0.5)
- Lib Dem: 10.4% of the vote (−0.6)
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1 OctThursday
- Labour: 289 seats (+5)
- Reform UK: 73 seats (−5)
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29 SepTuesday
- Labour: 284 seats (−13)
- Conservative: 138 seats (−1)
- Reform UK: 78 seats (+11)
- Lib Dem: 75 seats (+2)
- SNP: 31 seats (+1)
- Labour: 24.5% of the vote (−1.2)
- Conservative: 20.0% of the vote (−0.5)
- Reform UK: 22.5% of the vote (−0.5)
- Green: 11.4% of the vote (+0.4)
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28 SepMonday · rebuilt
- Labour: 297 seats (−1)
- Conservative: 139 seats (−1)
- Lib Dem: 73 seats (+1)
- Reform UK: 67 seats (−1)
- Others: 13 seats (+1)
- Green: 5 seats (+1)
- Green: 10.9% of the vote (+0.4)
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26 SepSaturday · rebuilt
- Labour majority: 23% chance, up 5 pts
- Labour: 298 seats (+8)
- Conservative: 140 seats (+2)
- SNP: 30 seats (−10)
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25 SepFriday · rebuilt
- Labour: 290 seats (+1)
- Conservative: 138 seats (−3)
- Reform UK: 68 seats (+2)
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23 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- Labour majority: 17% chance, up 4 pts
- Labour: 289 seats (+7)
- Conservative: 141 seats (−3)
- Reform UK: 66 seats (−3)
- Others: 12 seats (−1)
- Labour: 25.8% of the vote (+0.7)
- Lib Dem: 10.7% of the vote (+0.7)
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18 SepFriday · rebuilt
- Labour: 282 seats (+5)
- Conservative: 144 seats (−2)
- Reform UK: 69 seats (−3)
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13 SepSunday · rebuilt
- Labour: 277 seats (+3)
- Conservative: 146 seats (+4)
- Reform UK: 72 seats (−10)
- Lib Dem: 72 seats (+1)
- Plaid Cymru: 7 seats (+2)
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11 SepFriday · rebuilt
- Labour: 274 seats (−4)
- Conservative: 142 seats (+2)
- Reform UK: 82 seats (+2)
- Conservative: 21.3% of the vote (+0.4)
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10 SepThursday · rebuilt
- Labour: 278 seats (−1)
- Others: 13 seats (+1)
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9 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- Labour: 279 seats (+1)
- Others: 12 seats (−1)
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7 SepMonday · rebuilt
- Labour: 278 seats (+1)
- Green: 4 seats (−1)
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6 SepSunday · rebuilt
- Labour majority: 12% chance, up 3 pts
- Labour: 277 seats (+6)
- Conservative: 140 seats (+2)
- Reform UK: 80 seats (−8)
- Reform UK: 23.2% of the vote (−0.5)
- Lib Dem: 10.3% of the vote (−0.6)
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4 SepFriday · rebuilt
- Labour: 271 seats (+1)
- Conservative: 138 seats (+1)
- Reform UK: 88 seats (−2)
- Lib Dem: 10.8% of the vote (+0.6)
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1 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- Labour: 270 seats (+1)
- Reform UK: 90 seats (+2)
- Lib Dem: 71 seats (−1)
- Plaid Cymru: 5 seats (−2)
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31 AugMonday · rebuilt
- Labour: 269 seats (+10)
- Conservative: 137 seats (+29)
- Reform UK: 88 seats (−42)
- Lib Dem: 72 seats (+1)
- Others: 13 seats (+2)
- Labour: 24.6% of the vote (−1.1)
- Reform UK: 23.8% of the vote (−2.1)
- Lib Dem: 10.2% of the vote (+0.5)
- Green: 10.9% of the vote (−0.6)
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28 AugFriday · rebuilt
- Labour: 259 seats (+2)
- Reform UK: 130 seats (−9)
- Conservative: 108 seats (+6)
- Green: 5 seats (+1)
- Lib Dem: 9.7% of the vote (−0.6)
- Green: 11.4% of the vote (+0.6)
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24 AugMonday · rebuilt
- Labour: 257 seats (+1)
- Reform UK: 139 seats (+6)
- Conservative: 102 seats (−1)
- Plaid Cymru: 7 seats (−6)
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23 AugSunday · rebuilt
- Reform UK: 133 seats (−1)
- Conservative: 103 seats (+1)
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19 AugWednesday · rebuilt
- Labour: 256 seats (−1)
- SNP: 40 seats (+1)