Who is leading the 2028 Democratic primary?

Kamala Harris leads the national Democratic primary polls on 24.2%, and wins the nomination in 32% of our simulated races, ahead of Gavin Newsom (20%). Nobody major has declared, so the field may look very different.

Who is leading the 2028 Republican primary?

JD Vance leads the national Republican primary polls on 40.8%, and wins the nomination in 51% of our simulated races, ahead of Marco Rubio (26%).

When do the 2028 primaries start?

The Democrats start in South Carolina on January 22, 2028, under the early window the DNC approved in August 2026. The Republicans start with the Iowa caucus on about January 17, 2028; the RNC has set the order, not yet the dates. Super Tuesday is March 7, 2028.

How many delegates does a candidate need to win?

Democrats: 1,975 of 3,949 pledged delegates. Republicans: 1,215 of 2,429 pledged delegates. If nobody reaches a majority by the last primary, the convention decides.

How does the primary forecast work?

Each candidate starts from their average in the national primary polls. We then run the race 5,000 times through the 2028 calendar: each state votes with its own variation, early winners gain support, trailing candidates drop out, and delegates are shared out by each party's rules. Tested on the open nomination races of 2004 to 2020.

United States · 2028 · Primaries

The 2028 presidential primaries

Democrats: Kamala Harris (32%). Republicans: JD Vance (51%). Chances of the nomination from our primary model, the national primary polls since January 2025 and the calendar, state by state. The first votes are 440 days away and nobody major has declared, so these chances are wide and will move.

445days to the first Democratic contest: South Carolina, January 22, 2028

440days to the first Republican contest: Iowa, January 17, 2028 (expected)

490days to Super Tuesday, March 7, 2028

Democratic nomination

1,975 delegates to win

Kamala Harris24.2% in the polls · 1,213 delegates on average 32%
Gavin Newsom14.3% in the polls · 781 delegates on average 20%
Pete Buttigieg11.9% in the polls · 647 delegates on average 17%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9.9% in the polls · 487 delegates on average 12%
Jon Ossoff5.7% in the polls · 270 delegates on average 6%
Mark Kelly4.4% in the polls · 195 delegates on average 5%
Josh Shapiro4.5% in the polls · 195 delegates on average 5%
JB Pritzker2.2% in the polls · 73 delegates on average 2%

If Harris runs (Newsom stays out)Kamala Harris 38% If Newsom runs (Harris stays out)Gavin Newsom 26%

No one reaches a majority of delegates in 12% of our simulations: a contested convention.

The full Democratic forecast →

Republican nomination

1,215 delegates to win

JD Vance40.8% in the polls · 1,192 delegates on average 51%
Marco Rubio20.1% in the polls · 629 delegates on average 26%
Donald Trump Jr.7.3% in the polls · 216 delegates on average 8%
Ron DeSantis7.0% in the polls · 202 delegates on average 8%
Ted Cruz3.0% in the polls · 80 delegates on average 3%
Nikki Haley1.9% in the polls · 52 delegates on average 2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.2.4% in the polls · 58 delegates on average 2%

No one reaches a majority of delegates in 4% of our simulations: a contested convention.

The full Republican forecast →

The polls so far

Each line is the candidate's average in the national primary polls, every week since early 2025; the dots are the polls. A candidate a pollster did not ask about is left out of that poll.

Democrats · 136 national polls

Republicans · 115 national polls

The road to the nominations

How much of each party's delegate total has been chosen by each point. The early states choose few delegates but decide who survives; Super Tuesday chooses about a third.

Democrats 3,949 pledged delegates; 1,975 to win; the earliest a candidate could reach it is March 21, 2028

9% The early states
43% Super Tuesday
68% End of March
86% End of April
100% The last primaries

Republicans 2,429 pledged delegates; 1,215 to win; the earliest a candidate could reach it is March 14, 2028

13% The early states
49% Super Tuesday
73% End of March
87% End of April
100% The last primaries

Everyone in the polls

Every name pollsters have tested for 2028, with their national primary poll average and our chance of the nomination.

Democrats

Republicans

Common questions

Who is leading the 2028 Democratic primary?: Kamala Harris leads the national Democratic primary polls on 24.2%, and wins the nomination in 32% of our simulated races, ahead of Gavin Newsom (20%). Nobody major has declared, so the field may look very different.
Who is leading the 2028 Republican primary?: JD Vance leads the national Republican primary polls on 40.8%, and wins the nomination in 51% of our simulated races, ahead of Marco Rubio (26%).
When do the 2028 primaries start?: The Democrats start in South Carolina on January 22, 2028, under the early window the DNC approved in August 2026. The Republicans start with the Iowa caucus on about January 17, 2028; the RNC has set the order, not yet the dates. Super Tuesday is March 7, 2028.
How many delegates does a candidate need to win?: Democrats: 1,975 of 3,949 pledged delegates. Republicans: 1,215 of 2,429 pledged delegates. If nobody reaches a majority by the last primary, the convention decides.
How does the primary forecast work?: Each candidate starts from their average in the national primary polls. We then run the race 5,000 times through the 2028 calendar: each state votes with its own variation, early winners gain support, trailing candidates drop out, and delegates are shared out by each party's rules. Tested on the open nomination races of 2004 to 2020.

The Democratic primary forecast · The Republican primary forecast · The primary calendar · 2028: any Democrat against any Republican