2028 Democratic primary forecast

Chance of winning the nomination if newsom runs (harris stays out); 5,000 simulated races

Candidate	Poll average	Chance of the nomination	Delegates, average	Wins South Carolina	Wins Nevada
Gavin Newsom	14.5%	28%	1,072	25%	25%
Pete Buttigieg	12.3%	24%	924	21%	22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	10.3%	18%	691	18%	17%
Jon Ossoff	5.8%	10%	402	11%	11%
Josh Shapiro	4.7%	7%	303	9%	8%
Mark Kelly	4.5%	7%	287	8%	8%
JB Pritzker	2.2%	3%	115	4%	3%
Andy Beshear	1.8%	2%	96	3%	3%
Cory Booker	1.3%	1%	58	2%	2%

Poll average: each pollster's latest national Democratic primary poll in the 120 days to 19 October 2026 (15 polls), as polled; the model shares out the undecided and anyone left out of the field. No one reaches the 1,975 pledged delegates needed in 12% of simulations: a contested convention, counted here for whoever holds the most delegates.

The first contests

• South Carolina 22 Jan 2028 · primary · 55 delegates
  1. Gavin Newsom 25%
  2. Pete Buttigieg 21%
  3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18%
• Nevada 1 Feb 2028 · primary · 36 delegates
  1. Gavin Newsom 25%
  2. Pete Buttigieg 22%
  3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17%
• New Hampshire 8 Feb 2028 · primary · 25 delegates
  1. Gavin Newsom 26%
  2. Pete Buttigieg 22%
  3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18%
• New Mexico 15 Feb 2028 · primary · 34 delegates
  1. Gavin Newsom 26%
  2. Pete Buttigieg 23%
  3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18%
• Michigan 22 Feb 2028 · primary · 117 delegates
  1. Pete Buttigieg 31%
  2. Gavin Newsom 24%
  3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16%
• Virginia 29 Feb 2028 · primary · 99 delegates
  1. Gavin Newsom 27%
  2. Pete Buttigieg 24%
  3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17%

The Democratic early window as the DNC approved it on 15 August 2026: South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia; every other state on Super Tuesday, 7 March 2028, or later. Other states' dates, delegates and the 15% threshold are 2024's until the 2028 ones are set.

How it works, and how well it has done

• The start. Each candidate's share in the national primary polls, among the field shown. How far that support can move before voting starts depends on the time left: measured on past races, it is wide a year or more out, so the chances stay spread out.
• State by state. Each state votes in calendar order with its own variation from the national picture (more at caucuses and in the first three contests), and a candidate's home state lifts them.
• Momentum and dropouts. Winning an early contest lifts a candidate's national support, most for those who started small; the others slip. Candidates far behind drop out, as they do in real races.
• Delegates. Democrats share each state's delegates among candidates with at least 15%. The nominee is whoever wins a majority.
• The test. We ran the model on the open nomination races of 2004 to 2020, each time leaving that race out of the fitting. Before any votes it gave the eventual nominee 35 to 39% on average, a little better than taking poll shares as chances (30 to 36%); the poll leader a month before Iowa won 3 of 7. Started after the first eight dates, with the delegates already won, it gave the nominee 78% on average. Adding money raised (FEC filings) made the early forecast worse, so it is left out.
• Limits. A year and more before voting starts we widen the uncertainty beyond what the test covered. Primary polls miss far more than general-election polls, about 8 points on average since 2000. Nobody has declared, so who runs matters more than anything here: where a candidate has made running depend on someone else (Newsom has said he will not run if Harris does), we show both fields.