Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.
How to use this map
- Each state is coloured by our projected margin: the deeper the red or blue, the safer the state. Click or tap a state to zoom in to its counties and see its numbers.
- The key races: the closest in our forecast. Click one to fly to it.
- Switch between the four 2028 contests: president, Senate, House and governors.
- States or counties: the whole country at either level.
- Choose what the colours mean: our projected margin, or the shift since 2024.
- Results: put any election since 1868, or the 2026 midterms as counted, on the same map, then come back to our forecast.
- Polling misses and the national vote: replay a past polling error on today's numbers, or set the national vote yourself and watch every state follow.
- Sandbox: change any state's or county's votes and see the result change.
- The totals: electoral votes or seats for each party against what is needed to win. Pick a state and this shows that state instead.
What the map says
Democrats win the White House in 65% of our simulations. On average the Democrats win 289 of the 538 electoral votes (270 to win). The closest states: Nevada (Republican 55%), North Carolina (Democrat 56%), Arizona (Republican 56%), Georgia (Democrat 62%), Pennsylvania (Democrat 65%).
Our forecast as of November 2, 2026. An early projection across the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, until the nominees are chosen. The full forecast, with the odds and the polls →
The closest states
- Nevada (6 electoral votes) Republican 55% · projected R+0.9, 2024 president R+3.2
- North Carolina (16 electoral votes) Democrat 56% · projected D+1.2, 2024 president R+3.3
- Arizona (11 electoral votes) Republican 56% · projected R+1.2, 2024 president R+5.6
- Georgia (16 electoral votes) Democrat 62% · projected D+2.2, 2024 president R+2.2
- Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) Democrat 65% · projected D+2.7, 2024 president R+1.7
- Michigan (15 electoral votes) Democrat 66% · projected D+3.0, 2024 president R+1.4
- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) Democrat 69% · projected D+3.5, 2024 president R+0.9
- Ohio (17 electoral votes) Republican 83% · projected R+6.9, 2024 president R+11.3
- New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) Democrat 84% · projected D+7.2, 2024 president D+2.8
- Minnesota (10 electoral votes) Democrat 89% · projected D+8.7, 2024 president D+4.3
Every state
| State | Electoral votes | Favorite | Chance | Projected | 2024 president | 2024 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+26.3 | R+30.9 | Alabama 2024 |
| Alaska | 3 | Likely Republican | 90% | R+9.2 | R+13.7 | Alaska 2024 |
| Arizona | 11 | Toss-up Republican | 56% | R+1.2 | R+5.6 | Arizona 2024 |
| Arkansas | 6 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+26.8 | R+31.3 | Arkansas 2024 |
| California | 54 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+25.1 | D+20.8 | California 2024 |
| Colorado | 10 | Safe Democrat | 99% | D+15.6 | D+11.3 | Colorado 2024 |
| Connecticut | 7 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+19.1 | D+14.8 | Connecticut 2024 |
| Delaware | 3 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+19.3 | D+15.0 | Delaware 2024 |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+90.5 | D+86.6 | District of Columbia 2024 |
| Florida | 30 | Likely Republican | 89% | R+8.8 | R+13.2 | Florida 2024 |
| Georgia | 16 | Lean Democrat | 62% | D+2.2 | R+2.2 | Georgia 2024 |
| Hawaii | 4 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+27.8 | D+23.6 | Hawaii 2024 |
| Idaho | 4 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+32.9 | R+37.5 | Idaho 2024 |
| Illinois | 19 | Safe Democrat | 98% | D+15.5 | D+11.1 | Illinois 2024 |
| Indiana | 11 | Safe Republican | 98% | R+14.8 | R+19.3 | Indiana 2024 |
| Iowa | 6 | Likely Republican | 89% | R+9.0 | R+13.5 | Iowa 2024 |
| Kansas | 6 | Safe Republican | 95% | R+11.9 | R+16.4 | Kansas 2024 |
| Kentucky | 8 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+26.5 | R+31.0 | Kentucky 2024 |
| Louisiana | 8 | Safe Republican | 99% | R+17.8 | R+22.4 | Louisiana 2024 |
| Maine | 2 | Likely Democrat | 94% | D+11.4 | D+7.1 | Maine 2024 |
| Maryland | 10 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+33.7 | D+29.5 | Maryland 2024 |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+30.1 | D+25.9 | Massachusetts 2024 |
| Michigan | 15 | Lean Democrat | 66% | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | Michigan 2024 |
| Minnesota | 10 | Likely Democrat | 89% | D+8.7 | D+4.3 | Minnesota 2024 |
| Mississippi | 6 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+18.6 | R+23.2 | Mississippi 2024 |
| Missouri | 10 | Safe Republican | 98% | R+14.2 | R+18.7 | Missouri 2024 |
| Montana | 4 | Safe Republican | 99% | R+16.1 | R+20.6 | Montana 2024 |
| Nebraska | 2 | Safe Republican | 99% | R+16.3 | R+20.8 | Nebraska 2024 |
| Nevada | 6 | Toss-up Republican | 55% | R+0.9 | R+3.2 | Nevada 2024 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Likely Democrat | 84% | D+7.2 | D+2.8 | New Hampshire 2024 |
| New Jersey | 14 | Likely Democrat | 93% | D+10.4 | D+6.0 | New Jersey 2024 |
| New Mexico | 5 | Likely Democrat | 93% | D+10.5 | D+6.1 | New Mexico 2024 |
| New York | 28 | Safe Democrat | 99% | D+17.0 | D+12.7 | New York 2024 |
| North Carolina | 16 | Toss-up Democrat | 56% | D+1.2 | R+3.3 | North Carolina 2024 |
| North Dakota | 3 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+32.8 | R+37.4 | North Dakota 2024 |
| Ohio | 17 | Likely Republican | 83% | R+6.9 | R+11.3 | Ohio 2024 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+30.3 | R+34.9 | Oklahoma 2024 |
| Oregon | 8 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+19.2 | D+14.9 | Oregon 2024 |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | Lean Democrat | 65% | D+2.7 | R+1.7 | Pennsylvania 2024 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Safe Democrat | 99% | D+18.5 | D+14.2 | Rhode Island 2024 |
| South Carolina | 9 | Safe Republican | 97% | R+13.6 | R+18.1 | South Carolina 2024 |
| South Dakota | 3 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+25.3 | R+29.9 | South Dakota 2024 |
| Tennessee | 11 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+25.6 | R+30.1 | Tennessee 2024 |
| Texas | 40 | Likely Republican | 91% | R+9.4 | R+13.9 | Texas 2024 |
| Utah | 6 | Safe Republican | 99% | R+17.7 | R+22.2 | Utah 2024 |
| Vermont | 3 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+37.0 | D+32.8 | Vermont 2024 |
| Virginia | 13 | Likely Democrat | 92% | D+10.2 | D+5.9 | Virginia 2024 |
| Washington | 12 | Safe Democrat | >99% | D+23.2 | D+18.9 | Washington 2024 |
| West Virginia | 4 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+38.0 | R+42.7 | West Virginia 2024 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Lean Democrat | 69% | D+3.5 | R+0.9 | Wisconsin 2024 |
| Wyoming | 3 | Safe Republican | >99% | R+42.3 | R+47.0 | Wyoming 2024 |
How the map is made
Each state's chance and margin come from our 2028 presidential forecast: the national vote from the polls and the president's approval, each state's lean against the country, and the uncertainty in both, run through thousands of simulated elections. Each county starts from its 2024 presidential margin and moves by its state's projected swing, so you can zoom into any state and see where its votes come from.
The year buttons open every past election we hold: the 2026 midterms as counted, and certified results back to 1868, by state and county (and for the House, by district where we hold that decade's lines). Every past election, year by year · Where the results come from · Results by county · Make your own map · Try a county or state count of your own and see the forecast move
Common questions
- Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?
- In our early projection the Democrats win the White House in 65% of our simulations, with 289 electoral votes for the Democrats and 249 for the Republicans on average. The nominees are not yet chosen, so it averages the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations; it moves with the polls and the markets.
- Which states are the swing states in 2028?
- The closest states in our projection are Nevada (6 electoral votes, R+0.9), North Carolina (16 electoral votes, D+1.2), Arizona (11 electoral votes, R+1.2), Georgia (16 electoral votes, D+2.2), Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes, D+2.7), Michigan (15 electoral votes, D+3.0). 3 states are within a 60% chance either way.
- How is each county on the map projected?
- Each county starts from its 2024 presidential margin and moves by its state's projected swing from 2024, so a county keeps its place in its state while the state as a whole moves. Set the national vote or turnout on the map and every state and county moves with it.
- How often is the map updated?
- Every time a new poll comes in; the projection on this page is as of 2 November 2026. The past years on the map are certified results and do not change.
- Where do the past results come from?
- Certified results from the states' own archives, the MIT Election Data and Science Lab and other published sources, checked state by state; our sources page lists them all.
