Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.
How to use this map
- Each state is coloured by our projected margin: the deeper the red or blue, the safer the state. Click or tap a state to zoom in to its counties and see its numbers.
- The key races: the closest in our forecast. Click one to fly to it.
- Switch between the four 2028 contests: president, Senate, House and governors.
- States or counties: the whole country at either level.
- Choose what the colours mean: our projected margin, or the shift since 2024.
- Results: put any election since 1868, or the 2026 midterms as counted, on the same map, then come back to our forecast.
- Polling misses and the national vote: replay a past polling error on today's numbers, or set the national vote yourself and watch every state follow.
- Sandbox: change any state's or county's votes and see the result change.
- The totals: electoral votes or seats for each party against what is needed to win. Pick a state and this shows that state instead.
What the map says
Democrats control the Senate in 97% of our simulations, with 34 seats up. On average the Democrats hold 55 of the 100 seats after the election. The closest Senate races: Ohio (Democrat 61%), Wisconsin (Republican 62%), North Carolina (Republican 66%), Arizona (Democrat 73%), Georgia (Democrat 76%).
Our forecast as of November 2, 2026. The full forecast, with the odds and the polls →
The closest Senate races
- Ohio Democrat 61% · projected R+4.1, 2024 president R+11.2
- Wisconsin Republican 62% · projected R+5.0, 2024 president R+0.9
- North Carolina Republican 66% · projected R+6.9, 2024 president R+3.2
- Arizona Democrat 73% · projected D+10.5, 2024 president R+5.5
- Georgia Democrat 76% · projected D+12.6, 2024 president R+2.2
- Nevada Democrat 76% · projected D+12.5, 2024 president R+3.1
- Pennsylvania Democrat 77% · projected D+13.1, 2024 president R+1.7
- Florida Republican 79% · projected R+4.3, 2024 president R+13.1
Every Senate race
| Race | Favorite | Chance | Projected | 2024 president | Held by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe Republican | 96% | R+29.0 | R+30.5 | Republican |
| Alaska | Likely Republican | 81% | R+14.9 | R+13.1 | Republican |
| Arizona | Lean Democrat | 73% | D+10.5 | R+5.5 | Democrat |
| Arkansas | Safe Republican | 96% | R+29.6 | R+30.6 | Republican |
| California | Safe Democrat | 97% | D+32.6 | D+20.1 | Democrat |
| Colorado | Likely Democrat | 92% | D+23.6 | D+11.0 | Democrat |
| Connecticut | Likely Democrat | 95% | D+27.2 | D+14.5 | Democrat |
| Florida | Lean Republican | 79% | R+4.3 | R+13.1 | Republican |
| Georgia | Lean Democrat | 76% | D+12.6 | R+2.2 | Democrat |
| Hawaii | Safe Democrat | 98% | D+34.6 | D+23.1 | Democrat |
| Idaho | Safe Republican | 98% | R+33.9 | R+36.5 | Republican |
| Illinois | Likely Democrat | 92% | D+24.3 | D+10.9 | Democrat |
| Indiana | Likely Republican | 88% | R+19.8 | R+19.0 | Republican |
| Iowa | Lean Republican | 80% | R+14.6 | R+13.2 | Republican |
| Kansas | Likely Republican | 85% | R+17.8 | R+16.1 | Republican |
| Kentucky | Safe Republican | 96% | R+29.2 | R+30.5 | Republican |
| Louisiana | Likely Republican | 91% | R+22.3 | R+22.0 | Republican |
| Maryland | Safe Democrat | 99% | D+38.8 | D+28.5 | Democrat |
| Missouri | Likely Republican | 87% | R+19.4 | R+18.4 | Republican |
| Nevada | Lean Democrat | 76% | D+12.5 | R+3.1 | Democrat |
| New Hampshire | Likely Democrat | 84% | D+17.2 | D+2.8 | Democrat |
| New York | Likely Democrat | 94% | D+26.6 | D+12.6 | Democrat |
| North Carolina | Lean Republican | 66% | R+6.9 | R+3.2 | Republican |
| North Dakota | Safe Republican | 98% | R+34.4 | R+36.5 | Republican |
| Ohio | Lean Democrat (gain) | 61% | R+4.1 | R+11.2 | Republican |
| Oklahoma | Safe Republican | 97% | R+33.0 | R+34.3 | Republican |
| Oregon | Likely Democrat | 93% | D+26.2 | D+14.3 | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania | Lean Democrat | 77% | D+13.1 | R+1.7 | Democrat |
| South Carolina | Likely Republican | 86% | R+18.2 | R+17.9 | Republican |
| South Dakota | Safe Republican | 95% | R+28.4 | R+29.2 | Republican |
| Utah | Likely Republican | 91% | R+22.4 | R+21.6 | Republican |
| Vermont | Safe Democrat | 99% | D+41.1 | D+31.5 | Democrat |
| Washington | Safe Democrat | 96% | D+29.4 | D+18.2 | Democrat |
| Wisconsin | Lean Republican | 62% | R+5.0 | R+0.9 | Republican |
How the map is made
Each race's chance and margin come from our 2028 Senate forecast: the national mood from the polls, each state's lean, the candidates where they are known, and the uncertainty in all of them, run through thousands of simulated elections. Each county starts from its 2024 presidential margin and moves by its state's projected swing, so you can zoom into any state and see where its votes come from.
The year buttons open every past election we hold: the 2026 midterms as counted, and certified results back to 1868, by state and county (and for the House, by district where we hold that decade's lines). Every past election, year by year · Where the results come from · Results by county · Make your own map · Try a county or state count of your own and see the forecast move
Common questions
- Who is favored to control the Senate after 2028?
- The Democrats control the Senate in 97% of our simulations, with about 55 Democratic and 45 Republican senators on average.
- Which Senate races are closest in 2028?
- The closest of the 34 races in our projection: Ohio (Democrat 61%), Wisconsin (Republican 62%), North Carolina (Republican 66%), Arizona (Democrat 73%), Georgia (Democrat 76%), Nevada (Democrat 76%).
- How many Senate seats are up in 2028?
- 34 seats, the Class III seats last elected in 2022, plus any special elections. The other senators are not up until 2030 or 2032.
- How often is the map updated?
- Every time a new poll comes in; the projection on this page is as of 2 November 2026. The past years on the map are certified results and do not change.
- Where do the past results come from?
- Certified results from the states' own archives, the MIT Election Data and Science Lab and other published sources, checked state by state; our sources page lists them all.
