United States Presidential election7 Nov 2028in 729 days Senate D 97% House D 58% Calendar Track record Research
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Election 2024 Results

Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.

2024 presidential election in Arkansas

Donald Trump (Republican) beat Kamala Harris (Democrat) in Arkansas in 2024, 64.2% to 33.6%, a margin of 30.6 points and 362,336 votes.

Arkansas voted 29.2 points more Republican than the country as a whole, where the margin was R+1.5.

The Republican hold continued from 2020, when Donald Trump also won.

Republicans led in 68 of the 75 counties and Democrats in 7. The largest, Pulaski, cast 153,949 votes and went to the Democrat by 22.1 points. The closest was St. Francis, where 45 votes separated the two parties.

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Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

Result

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Donald Trump won Republican 759,241 64.2%
Kamala Harris Democratic 396,905 33.6%
All other candidates 26,530 2.2%
Total1,182,676

Every county

CountyDemocratRepublicanOthersTotalMargin
Pulaski 92,057 59.8% 57,985 37.7% 3,907 153,949 D+22.1
Benton 45,159 35.2% 79,809 62.1% 3,453 128,421 R+27.0
Washington 43,788 45.1% 50,250 51.7% 3,136 97,174 R+6.6
Saline 16,612 28.8% 39,742 69.0% 1,265 57,619 R+40.1
Faulkner 17,756 32.6% 35,362 64.9% 1,356 54,474 R+32.3
Sebastian 13,655 30.0% 30,723 67.6% 1,081 45,459 R+37.5
Garland 13,018 30.8% 28,363 67.0% 953 42,334 R+36.2
Craighead 11,212 30.1% 25,156 67.5% 880 37,248 R+37.4
White 5,642 18.3% 24,518 79.5% 682 30,842 R+61.2
Lonoke 6,791 22.2% 23,228 75.8% 606 30,625 R+53.7
Pope 5,488 22.7% 18,121 74.9% 586 24,195 R+52.2
Crawford 4,754 19.9% 18,618 78.1% 466 23,838 R+58.2
Jefferson 12,805 59.2% 8,469 39.2% 338 21,612 D+20.1
Baxter 4,342 20.7% 16,255 77.6% 360 20,957 R+56.8
Boone 2,855 16.7% 13,970 81.6% 290 17,115 R+64.9
Greene 2,936 18.6% 12,619 79.8% 268 15,823 R+61.2
Miller 3,770 23.9% 11,844 74.9% 192 15,806 R+51.1
Union 5,020 32.5% 10,197 66.0% 234 15,451 R+33.5
Crittenden 7,364 50.2% 7,029 47.9% 290 14,683 D+2.3
Independence 2,690 19.2% 11,025 78.7% 298 14,013 R+59.5
Cleburne 1,941 15.2% 10,597 83.2% 203 12,741 R+67.9
Hot Spring 2,819 22.9% 9,227 75.1% 239 12,285 R+52.2
Carroll 3,813 33.0% 7,471 64.7% 256 11,540 R+31.7
Mississippi 3,575 33.4% 6,964 65.0% 180 10,719 R+31.6
Johnson 2,107 23.3% 6,767 74.7% 186 9,060 R+51.4
Ouachita 3,413 39.6% 5,057 58.6% 157 8,627 R+19.1
Conway 2,449 28.7% 5,894 69.0% 199 8,542 R+40.3
Polk 1,145 13.8% 6,988 84.3% 156 8,289 R+70.5
Logan 1,464 17.8% 6,568 80.0% 174 8,206 R+62.2
Grant 1,192 14.8% 6,756 83.6% 131 8,079 R+68.9
Columbia 2,467 31.1% 5,368 67.6% 106 7,941 R+36.5
Marion 1,501 19.1% 6,231 79.4% 120 7,852 R+60.2
Clark 2,960 38.7% 4,527 59.1% 171 7,658 R+20.5
Van Buren 1,437 18.9% 6,024 79.0% 161 7,622 R+60.2
Madison 1,491 19.9% 5,886 78.5% 125 7,502 R+58.6
Sharp 1,316 17.7% 5,979 80.4% 143 7,438 R+62.7
Poinsett 1,235 17.4% 5,732 81.0% 113 7,080 R+63.5
Ashley 1,774 25.2% 5,146 73.2% 111 7,031 R+48.0
Franklin 1,232 17.7% 5,583 80.1% 157 6,972 R+62.4
Randolph 1,138 17.1% 5,368 80.9% 131 6,637 R+63.7
Cross 1,642 25.1% 4,754 72.7% 139 6,535 R+47.6
Yell 1,213 18.7% 5,148 79.5% 117 6,478 R+60.7
Drew 2,050 32.2% 4,204 66.0% 112 6,366 R+33.8
Hempstead 1,776 29.2% 4,194 68.9% 120 6,090 R+39.7
Stone 1,089 18.1% 4,809 79.7% 133 6,031 R+61.7
St. Francis 2,954 49.4% 2,909 48.6% 117 5,980 D+0.8
Izard 949 16.0% 4,855 81.9% 122 5,926 R+65.9
Lawrence 965 17.0% 4,609 81.0% 119 5,693 R+64.0
Arkansas 1,503 27.1% 3,952 71.2% 93 5,548 R+44.1
Fulton 906 18.0% 4,041 80.1% 97 5,044 R+62.2
Clay 907 18.3% 3,969 79.9% 92 4,968 R+61.6
Phillips 2,755 55.8% 2,098 42.5% 86 4,939 D+13.3
Little River 1,084 22.1% 3,745 76.4% 71 4,900 R+54.3
Jackson 1,183 24.8% 3,510 73.5% 83 4,776 R+48.7
Sevier 862 18.3% 3,773 80.0% 80 4,715 R+61.7
Perry 923 20.1% 3,560 77.6% 102 4,585 R+57.5
Howard 1,158 25.9% 3,246 72.6% 70 4,474 R+46.7
Pike 560 12.8% 3,747 86.0% 52 4,359 R+73.1
Searcy 511 13.2% 3,305 85.4% 54 3,870 R+72.2
Newton 644 17.1% 3,063 81.2% 64 3,771 R+64.1
Montgomery 645 17.4% 2,987 80.6% 76 3,708 R+63.2
Desha 1,638 46.7% 1,805 51.5% 63 3,506 R+4.8
Chicot 1,796 51.4% 1,658 47.5% 37 3,491 D+4.0
Scott 425 12.6% 2,913 86.1% 47 3,385 R+73.5
Cleveland 524 15.5% 2,804 83.1% 47 3,375 R+67.6
Lincoln 813 24.1% 2,502 74.2% 58 3,373 R+50.1
Bradley 961 29.9% 2,213 68.9% 36 3,210 R+39.0
Prairie 524 16.4% 2,628 82.1% 49 3,201 R+65.7
Nevada 849 29.2% 2,002 68.9% 56 2,907 R+39.7
Lee 1,270 50.4% 1,181 46.9% 69 2,520 D+3.5
Monroe 1,002 41.2% 1,385 56.9% 46 2,433 R+15.7
Lafayette 698 30.0% 1,589 68.3% 38 2,325 R+38.3
Dallas 798 34.3% 1,482 63.8% 44 2,324 R+29.4
Woodruff 760 32.8% 1,513 65.3% 45 2,318 R+32.5
Calhoun 379 18.1% 1,674 80.0% 39 2,092 R+61.9

Margin: the Democrat's share of all votes minus the Republican's. Sources and how the results were checked.

Arkansas in every presidential election we hold

YearWinnerMargin
2024 Donald Trump (R) R+30.6
2020 Donald Trump (R) R+27.6
2016 Donald Trump (R) R+26.9
2012 Mitt Romney (R) R+23.7
2008 John McCain (R) R+19.9
2004 George W. Bush (R) R+9.8
2000 George W. Bush (R) R+5.4
1996 Bill Clinton (D) D+16.9
1992 Bill Clinton (D) D+17.7
1988 George H. W. Bush (R) R+14.2
1984 Ronald Reagan (R) R+22.2
1980 Ronald Reagan (R) R+0.6
1976 Jimmy Carter (D) D+30.1
1972 Richard Nixon (R) R+38.1
1968 George Wallace (other)
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson (D) D+12.7
1960 John F. Kennedy (D) D+7.1
1956 Adlai Stevenson II (D) D+6.6
1952 Adlai Stevenson II (D) D+12.1
1948 Harry S. Truman (D) D+40.7
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+40.1
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+58.0
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+63.9
1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+73.1
1928 Al Smith (D) D+20.9
1924 John W. Davis (D) D+31.9
1920 James M. Cox (D) D+19.8
1916 Woodrow Wilson (D) D+37.2
1912 Woodrow Wilson (D) D+34.6
1908 William Jennings Bryan (D) D+20.0
1904 Alton B. Parker (D) D+15.2
1900 William Jennings Bryan (D) D+28.5
1896 William Jennings Bryan (D) D+48.6
1892 Grover Cleveland (D) D+27.5
1888 Grover Cleveland (D) D+16.8
1884 Grover Cleveland (D) D+17.1
1880 Winfield Scott Hancock (D) D+17.1
1876 Samuel J. Tilden (D) D+20.0
1872 Ulysses S. Grant (R) R+4.3
1868 Ulysses S. Grant (R) R+7.4