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United States · Election results history · 2004 president · Iowa
Election 2004 Results

Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.

2004 presidential election in Iowa

George W. Bush (Republican) beat John Kerry (Democrat) in Iowa in 2004, 49.9% to 49.2%, a margin of 0.7 points and 10,059 votes.

Iowa voted 1.8 points more Democratic than the country as a whole, where the margin was R+2.5.

Iowa changed party: in 2000 it went Democratic, for Al Gore.

Republicans led in 67 of the 99 counties and Democrats in 32. The largest, Polk, cast 202,618 votes and went to the Democrat by 4.6 points. The closest was Winneshiek, where 30 votes separated the two parties.

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Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

Result

CandidatePartyVotesShare
George W. Bush won Republican 751,957 49.9%
John Kerry Democratic 741,898 49.2%
All other candidates 13,053 0.9%
Total1,506,908

Every county

CountyDemocratRepublicanOthersTotalMargin
Polk 105,218 51.9% 95,828 47.3% 1,572 202,618 D+4.6
Linn 60,442 54.6% 49,442 44.6% 856 110,740 D+9.9
Scott 42,122 50.9% 39,958 48.3% 642 82,722 D+2.6
Johnson 41,847 64.0% 22,715 34.7% 811 65,373 D+29.3
Black Hawk 35,392 55.4% 28,046 43.9% 469 63,907 D+11.5
Dubuque 26,561 56.5% 20,100 42.7% 382 47,043 D+13.7
Story 23,296 52.2% 20,819 46.6% 537 44,652 D+5.5
Woodbury 21,455 48.5% 22,451 50.8% 289 44,195 R+2.3
Pottawattamie 16,906 40.4% 24,558 58.7% 356 41,820 R+18.3
Dallas 10,917 41.5% 15,183 57.7% 193 26,293 R+16.2
Clinton 13,813 56.0% 10,666 43.2% 205 24,684 D+12.7
Cerro Gordo 13,372 54.5% 10,960 44.7% 184 24,516 D+9.8
Warren 10,730 46.5% 12,160 52.7% 163 23,053 R+6.2
Des Moines 12,456 59.7% 8,221 39.4% 197 20,874 D+20.3
Jasper 10,430 52.0% 9,462 47.2% 170 20,062 D+4.8
Marshall 9,443 49.3% 9,557 49.9% 164 19,164 R+0.6
Muscatine 9,542 51.0% 9,020 48.2% 155 18,717 D+2.8
Webster 9,561 51.3% 8,959 48.1% 111 18,631 D+3.2
Lee 10,152 56.8% 7,472 41.8% 234 17,858 D+15.0
Wapello 9,125 54.6% 7,403 44.3% 179 16,707 D+10.3
Marion 6,574 39.4% 9,990 59.8% 132 16,696 R+20.5
Sioux 2,259 13.6% 14,229 85.9% 82 16,570 R+72.2
Boone 7,027 50.2% 6,870 49.0% 112 14,009 D+1.1
Benton 6,747 50.0% 6,658 49.3% 96 13,501 D+0.7
Bremer 6,025 47.1% 6,665 52.2% 89 12,779 R+5.0
Plymouth 4,278 35.0% 7,810 63.9% 134 12,222 R+28.9
Winneshiek 5,354 49.6% 5,324 49.4% 106 10,784 D+0.3
Mahaska 3,790 35.3% 6,858 63.9% 80 10,728 R+28.6
Washington 4,595 43.0% 5,977 55.9% 116 10,688 R+12.9
Carroll 4,689 44.6% 5,762 54.8% 73 10,524 R+10.2
Buchanan 5,608 53.5% 4,797 45.8% 70 10,475 D+7.7
Fayette 5,185 49.9% 5,128 49.3% 79 10,392 D+0.5
Poweshiek 5,043 50.0% 4,965 49.2% 83 10,091 D+0.8
Jackson 5,656 56.5% 4,242 42.4% 113 10,011 D+14.1
Jones 5,054 50.7% 4,834 48.4% 90 9,978 D+2.2
Cedar 4,747 49.0% 4,869 50.2% 78 9,694 R+1.3
Dickinson 4,140 43.3% 5,337 55.9% 76 9,553 R+12.5
Henry 4,127 43.6% 5,220 55.2% 110 9,457 R+11.6
Kossuth 4,132 44.6% 5,042 54.5% 84 9,258 R+9.8
Delaware 4,227 45.9% 4,908 53.3% 65 9,200 R+7.4
Clayton 4,736 51.7% 4,312 47.0% 120 9,168 D+4.6
Tama 4,487 49.9% 4,456 49.5% 58 9,001 D+0.3
Hardin 4,015 44.9% 4,875 54.5% 59 8,949 R+9.6
Clay 3,547 41.3% 4,898 57.0% 143 8,588 R+15.7
Buena Vista 3,520 41.5% 4,887 57.6% 83 8,490 R+16.1
Iowa 3,841 45.4% 4,544 53.7% 69 8,454 R+8.3
Hamilton 3,895 46.7% 4,367 52.4% 73 8,335 R+5.7
Jefferson 4,490 54.2% 3,648 44.1% 143 8,281 D+10.2
Floyd 4,349 53.3% 3,745 45.9% 73 8,167 D+7.4
Madison 3,380 42.2% 4,538 56.7% 86 8,004 R+14.5
O'Brien 2,330 30.1% 5,328 68.9% 73 7,731 R+38.8
Harrison 2,906 37.8% 4,680 60.9% 94 7,680 R+23.1
Cass 2,679 35.5% 4,796 63.6% 68 7,543 R+28.1
Page 2,211 29.4% 5,243 69.8% 59 7,513 R+40.4
Butler 3,001 40.1% 4,417 59.1% 57 7,475 R+18.9
Crawford 3,220 44.5% 3,955 54.6% 67 7,242 R+10.1
Allamakee 3,449 48.8% 3,530 50.0% 83 7,062 R+1.1
Mills 2,308 33.3% 4,556 65.6% 76 6,940 R+32.4
Grundy 2,386 34.8% 4,429 64.7% 34 6,849 R+29.8
Chickasaw 3,708 54.5% 3,040 44.7% 58 6,806 D+9.8
Cherokee 2,988 44.0% 3,758 55.3% 50 6,796 R+11.3
Shelby 2,355 35.3% 4,256 63.8% 59 6,670 R+28.5
Wright 2,930 44.4% 3,631 55.0% 42 6,603 R+10.6
Appanoose 3,063 47.5% 3,340 51.8% 47 6,450 R+4.3
Lyon 1,303 21.4% 4,751 77.9% 47 6,101 R+56.5
Guthrie 2,614 43.6% 3,325 55.5% 55 5,994 R+11.9
Union 2,747 46.0% 3,165 52.9% 66 5,978 R+7.0
Winnebago 2,707 45.5% 3,175 53.3% 70 5,952 R+7.9
Hancock 2,484 42.1% 3,368 57.0% 53 5,905 R+15.0
Montgomery 1,899 34.2% 3,601 64.8% 56 5,556 R+30.6
Calhoun 2,243 40.5% 3,255 58.7% 44 5,542 R+18.3
Franklin 2,340 42.4% 3,128 56.7% 53 5,521 R+14.3
Keokuk 2,294 41.9% 3,119 56.9% 67 5,480 R+15.1
Mitchell 2,785 50.8% 2,646 48.3% 49 5,480 D+2.5
Sac 2,215 41.2% 3,128 58.2% 31 5,374 R+17.0
Humboldt 2,146 40.1% 3,162 59.1% 42 5,350 R+19.0
Palo Alto 2,482 47.8% 2,674 51.5% 35 5,191 R+3.7
Emmet 2,405 46.6% 2,697 52.3% 54 5,156 R+5.7
Greene 2,459 48.1% 2,618 51.2% 36 5,113 R+3.1
Monona 2,397 47.8% 2,575 51.3% 46 5,018 R+3.5
Louisa 2,297 46.7% 2,572 52.3% 47 4,916 R+5.6
Howard 2,614 55.7% 2,028 43.2% 55 4,697 D+12.5
Lucas 1,987 43.5% 2,543 55.6% 41 4,571 R+12.2
Clarke 2,323 50.9% 2,200 48.2% 43 4,566 D+2.7
Pocahontas 1,822 42.2% 2,441 56.6% 50 4,313 R+14.4
Adair 1,844 43.1% 2,402 56.1% 32 4,278 R+13.0
Worth 2,286 55.4% 1,795 43.5% 42 4,123 D+11.9
Decatur 1,859 46.3% 2,088 52.1% 64 4,011 R+5.7
Monroe 1,855 46.8% 2,067 52.2% 41 3,963 R+5.3
Davis 1,731 44.2% 2,148 54.8% 39 3,918 R+10.6
Fremont 1,510 38.6% 2,362 60.4% 39 3,911 R+21.8
Van Buren 1,568 40.9% 2,211 57.6% 57 3,836 R+16.8
Ida 1,415 37.5% 2,342 62.1% 17 3,774 R+24.6
Audubon 1,608 44.8% 1,958 54.5% 26 3,592 R+9.7
Osceola 934 28.6% 2,295 70.3% 37 3,266 R+41.7
Taylor 1,252 39.2% 1,908 59.8% 30 3,190 R+20.6
Wayne 1,379 44.0% 1,733 55.3% 21 3,133 R+11.3
Ringgold 1,286 46.3% 1,466 52.8% 26 2,778 R+6.5
Adams 977 42.0% 1,317 56.6% 31 2,325 R+14.6

Margin: the Democrat's share of all votes minus the Republican's. Sources and how the results were checked.

Iowa in every presidential election we hold

YearWinnerMargin
2024 Donald Trump (R) R+13.2
2020 Donald Trump (R) R+8.2
2016 Donald Trump (R) R+9.4
2012 Barack Obama (D) D+5.8
2008 Barack Obama (D) D+9.5
2004 George W. Bush (R) R+0.7
2000 Al Gore (D) D+0.3
1996 Bill Clinton (D) D+10.3
1992 Bill Clinton (D) D+6.0
1988 Michael Dukakis (D) D+10.2
1984 Ronald Reagan (R) R+7.4
1980 Ronald Reagan (R) R+12.7
1976 Gerald Ford (R) R+1.0
1972 Richard Nixon (R) R+17.1
1968 Richard Nixon (R) R+12.2
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson (D) D+24.0
1960 Richard Nixon (R) R+13.5
1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) R+18.4
1952 Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) R+28.2
1948 Harry S. Truman (D) D+2.7
1944 Thomas E. Dewey (R) R+4.5
1940 Wendell Willkie (R) R+4.4
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+11.7
1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) D+17.7
1928 Herbert Hoover (R) R+24.2
1924 Calvin Coolidge (R) R+38.4
1920 Warren G. Harding (R) R+45.4
1916 Charles Evans Hughes (R) R+12.0
1912 Woodrow Wilson (D) D+13.3
1908 William Howard Taft (R) R+15.0
1904 Theodore Roosevelt (R) R+32.7
1900 William McKinley (R) R+18.6
1896 William McKinley (R) R+12.6
1892 Benjamin Harrison (R) R+5.3
1888 Benjamin Harrison (R) R+7.8
1884 James G. Blaine (R) R+5.2
1880 James A. Garfield (R) R+24.1
1876 Rutherford B. Hayes (R) R+20.2
1872 Ulysses S. Grant (R) R+23.1
1868 Ulysses S. Grant (R) R+23.8