Election 2004 Results
Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.
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2004 presidential election in Arizona
George W. Bush (Republican) beat John Kerry (Democrat) in Arizona in 2004, 54.9% to 44.4%, a margin of 10.5 points and 210,770 votes.
Arizona voted 8.0 points more Republican than the country as a whole, where the margin was R+2.5.
The Republican hold continued from 2000, when George W. Bush also won.
Republicans led in 11 of the 15 counties and Democrats in 4. The largest, Maricopa, cast 1,192,751 votes and went to the Republican by 14.6 points. The closest was Greenlee, where 753 votes separated the two parties.
Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.
Result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush won | Republican | 1,104,294 | 54.9% |
| John Kerry | Democratic | 893,524 | 44.4% |
| All other candidates | 14,767 | 0.7% | |
| Total | 2,012,585 |
Every county
| County | Democrat | Republican | Others | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 504,849 42.3% | 679,455 57.0% | 8,447 | 1,192,751 | R+14.6 |
| Pima | 193,128 52.6% | 171,109 46.6% | 2,670 | 366,907 | D+6.0 |
| Yavapai | 33,127 37.9% | 53,468 61.2% | 794 | 87,389 | R+23.3 |
| Pinal | 27,252 42.2% | 37,006 57.3% | 364 | 64,622 | R+15.1 |
| Mohave | 20,503 35.5% | 36,794 63.6% | 510 | 57,807 | R+28.2 |
| Coconino | 29,243 55.9% | 22,526 43.1% | 498 | 52,267 | D+12.9 |
| Cochise | 17,514 39.4% | 26,556 59.7% | 413 | 44,483 | R+20.3 |
| Yuma | 16,032 41.7% | 22,184 57.7% | 249 | 38,465 | R+16.0 |
| Navajo | 14,815 45.8% | 17,277 53.4% | 251 | 32,343 | R+7.6 |
| Apache | 15,658 64.7% | 8,384 34.6% | 156 | 24,198 | D+30.1 |
| Gila | 8,314 39.9% | 12,343 59.2% | 186 | 20,843 | R+19.3 |
| Santa Cruz | 6,909 59.2% | 4,668 40.0% | 91 | 11,668 | D+19.2 |
| Graham | 3,185 29.7% | 7,467 69.7% | 68 | 10,720 | R+39.9 |
| La Paz | 1,849 36.6% | 3,158 62.5% | 48 | 5,055 | R+25.9 |
| Greenlee | 1,146 37.4% | 1,899 61.9% | 22 | 3,067 | R+24.6 |
Margin: the Democrat's share of all votes minus the Republican's. Sources and how the results were checked.
Arizona in every presidential election we hold
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Donald Trump (R) | R+5.5 |
| 2020 | Joe Biden (D) | D+0.3 |
| 2016 | Donald Trump (R) | R+3.5 |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney (R) | R+9.1 |
| 2008 | John McCain (R) | R+8.5 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush (R) | R+10.5 |
| 2000 | George W. Bush (R) | R+6.3 |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton (D) | D+2.2 |
| 1992 | George H. W. Bush (R) | R+2.0 |
| 1988 | George H. W. Bush (R) | R+21.2 |
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan (R) | R+33.9 |
| 1980 | Ronald Reagan (R) | R+32.4 |
| 1976 | Gerald Ford (R) | R+16.6 |
| 1972 | Richard Nixon (R) | R+31.3 |
| 1968 | Richard Nixon (R) | R+19.8 |
| 1964 | Barry Goldwater (R) | R+1.0 |
| 1960 | Richard Nixon (R) | R+11.2 |
| 1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) | R+22.1 |
| 1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) | R+16.7 |
| 1948 | Harry S. Truman (D) | D+10.0 |
| 1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | D+17.9 |
| 1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | D+27.5 |
| 1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | D+42.9 |
| 1932 | Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | D+36.5 |
| 1928 | Herbert Hoover (R) | R+15.3 |
| 1924 | Calvin Coolidge (R) | R+5.8 |
| 1920 | Warren G. Harding (R) | R+11.2 |
| 1916 | Woodrow Wilson (D) | D+21.8 |
| 1912 | Woodrow Wilson (D) | D+30.8 |