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United States · Election results history · 2024 Senate · Pennsylvania
Election 2024 Results

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2024 US Senate election in Pennsylvania

Dave McCormick (Republican) beat Robert P Casey Jr (Democrat) in Pennsylvania in 2024, 48.8% to 48.6%, a margin of 0.2 points and 15,115 votes.

Pennsylvania changed party: in 2018 it went Democratic, for Robert P Casey Jr.

Republicans led in 55 of the 67 counties and Democrats in 12. The largest, Allegheny, cast 715,922 votes and went to the Democrat by 21.3 points. The closest was Monroe, where 829 votes separated the two parties.

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Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

Senate

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Dave McCormick won Republican 3,399,295 48.8%
Robert P Casey Jr Democratic 3,384,180 48.6%
All other candidates 179,662 2.6%
Total6,963,137

Every county

CountyDemocratRepublicanOthersTotalMargin
Allegheny 425,280 59.4% 272,861 38.1% 17,781 715,922 D+21.3
Philadelphia 539,531 78.4% 128,857 18.7% 19,566 687,954 D+59.7
Montgomery 311,859 60.0% 196,422 37.8% 11,687 519,968 D+22.2
Bucks 196,444 49.1% 194,203 48.6% 9,186 399,833 D+0.6
Delaware 197,424 60.5% 121,482 37.2% 7,551 326,457 D+23.3
Chester 178,833 55.1% 138,270 42.6% 7,552 324,655 D+12.5
Lancaster 118,580 41.1% 162,105 56.2% 7,667 288,352 R+15.1
York 91,779 37.0% 148,098 59.7% 8,051 247,928 R+22.7
Westmoreland 76,004 36.4% 128,040 61.3% 4,893 208,937 R+24.9
Berks 89,063 43.7% 108,058 53.1% 6,521 203,642 R+9.3
Lehigh 94,875 50.6% 87,147 46.5% 5,562 187,584 D+4.1
Northampton 84,762 48.5% 85,787 49.1% 4,066 174,615 R+0.6
Luzerne 64,546 41.6% 87,096 56.2% 3,448 155,090 R+14.5
Dauphin 77,022 51.7% 66,949 44.9% 4,985 148,956 D+6.8
Cumberland 64,713 43.9% 78,178 53.0% 4,512 147,403 R+9.1
Erie 67,868 49.6% 65,603 47.9% 3,371 136,842 D+1.7
Butler 40,973 33.9% 77,328 63.9% 2,666 120,967 R+30.1
Washington 45,926 38.1% 71,798 59.6% 2,717 120,441 R+21.5
Lackawanna 61,653 53.2% 51,944 44.8% 2,289 115,886 D+8.4
Beaver 38,529 40.7% 53,593 56.6% 2,635 94,757 R+15.9
Monroe 41,701 49.0% 40,872 48.1% 2,455 85,028 D+1.0
Franklin 23,591 28.4% 57,217 68.8% 2,313 83,121 R+40.5
Centre 40,382 50.2% 38,054 47.3% 1,979 80,415 D+2.9
Lebanon 24,745 33.8% 46,172 63.1% 2,222 73,139 R+29.3
Schuylkill 22,224 30.5% 48,553 66.7% 2,063 72,840 R+36.1
Cambria 22,887 32.2% 46,482 65.5% 1,635 71,004 R+33.2
Blair 18,445 28.5% 44,741 69.1% 1,537 64,723 R+40.6
Fayette 20,752 33.0% 40,804 64.8% 1,389 62,945 R+31.9
Adams 19,947 33.1% 38,505 63.9% 1,824 60,276 R+30.8
Lycoming 17,354 29.2% 40,669 68.4% 1,472 59,495 R+39.2
Mercer 20,302 35.0% 36,468 62.8% 1,318 58,088 R+27.8
Lawrence 16,176 34.6% 29,405 62.8% 1,211 46,792 R+28.3
Northumberland 13,432 31.0% 28,706 66.3% 1,156 43,294 R+35.3
Crawford 13,370 31.3% 28,234 66.1% 1,110 42,714 R+34.8
Indiana 13,181 31.3% 27,881 66.3% 1,006 42,068 R+34.9
Somerset 9,057 22.2% 30,662 75.1% 1,090 40,809 R+52.9
Clearfield 10,111 25.1% 29,063 72.3% 1,038 40,212 R+47.1
Armstrong 9,136 24.7% 26,653 72.1% 1,155 36,944 R+47.4
Carbon 11,570 33.0% 22,603 64.4% 898 35,071 R+31.5
Pike 12,909 37.3% 20,869 60.3% 831 34,609 R+23.0
Columbia 10,962 33.9% 20,600 63.6% 813 32,375 R+29.8
Bradford 8,007 25.9% 22,099 71.5% 804 30,910 R+45.6
Wayne 9,385 32.0% 19,331 65.9% 619 29,335 R+33.9
Bedford 4,624 16.5% 22,855 81.5% 564 28,043 R+65.0
Venango 7,902 29.7% 17,825 66.9% 904 26,631 R+37.3
Perry 6,470 25.2% 18,355 71.5% 855 25,680 R+46.3
Jefferson 4,834 20.9% 17,618 76.3% 626 23,078 R+55.4
Huntingdon 5,582 24.2% 16,910 73.4% 536 23,028 R+49.2
Susquehanna 6,128 27.6% 15,547 70.0% 541 22,216 R+42.4
Mifflin 4,991 22.7% 16,413 74.8% 542 21,946 R+52.0
Tioga 5,066 23.6% 15,778 73.6% 588 21,432 R+50.0
Union 7,872 37.4% 12,747 60.5% 453 21,072 R+23.1
Warren 6,415 31.0% 13,655 66.1% 597 20,667 R+35.0
Snyder 5,309 26.6% 14,211 71.2% 427 19,947 R+44.6
Clarion 4,684 23.8% 14,180 72.1% 815 19,679 R+48.3
McKean 5,231 26.7% 13,799 70.5% 541 19,571 R+43.8
Clinton 5,722 31.0% 12,250 66.4% 476 18,448 R+35.4
Greene 5,075 29.6% 11,643 67.9% 427 17,145 R+38.3
Elk 4,674 27.4% 11,931 69.8% 484 17,089 R+42.5
Wyoming 4,750 31.6% 9,917 66.0% 349 15,016 R+34.4
Juniata 2,478 20.6% 9,251 76.8% 313 12,042 R+56.2
Montour 3,813 38.5% 5,847 59.1% 240 9,900 R+20.5
Potter 1,695 18.7% 7,109 78.5% 251 9,055 R+59.8
Fulton 1,197 14.7% 6,773 83.5% 146 8,116 R+68.7
Sullivan 1,021 27.5% 2,612 70.3% 82 3,715 R+42.8
Forest 741 28.0% 1,808 68.3% 100 2,649 R+40.3
Cameron 580 26.2% 1,558 70.4% 76 2,214 R+44.2

Margin: the Democrat's share of all votes minus the Republican's. Sources and how the results were checked.

Pennsylvania Senate elections we hold

YearWinnerMargin
2024 Dave McCormick (R) R+0.2
2022 John K Fetterman (D) D+4.9
2018 Robert P Casey Jr (D) D+12.9
2016 Patrick J. Toomey (R) R+1.4
2012 Robert P. Casey, Jr. (D) D+9.1
2010 Pat Toomey (R) R+2.0
2006 Bob Casey, Jr. (D) D+17.4
2004 Arlen Specter (R) R+10.6
2000 Rick Santorum (R) R+6.9
1998 Arlen Specter (R) R+26.6
1994 Rick Santorum (R) R+2.5
1992 Arlen Specter (R) R+2.8
1988 John Heinz (R) R+34.0
1986 Arlen Specter (R) R+13.6
1982 John Heinz (R) R+20.1
1980 Arlen Specter (R) R+2.4
1976 H. John Heinz III (R) R+5.6
1974 Richard Schweiker (R) R+7.1
1970 Hugh Scott (R) R+6.0
1968 Richard Schweiker (R) R+6.1
1964 Hugh Scott (R) R+1.5
1962 Joseph S. Clark (D) D+2.4
1958 Hugh Scott (R) R+2.8
1956 Joseph S. Clark (D) D+0.4
1952 Edward Martin (R) R+3.6
1950 James H. Duff (R) R+3.6
1946 Edward Martin (R) R+19.4
1944 Francis Myers (D) D+0.6
1940 Joseph F. Guffey (D) D+4.4
1938 James J. Davis (R) R+10.6
1934 Joseph F. Guffey (D) D+4.3
1932 James J. Davis (R) R+6.2
1928 David A. Reed (R) R+30.4
1926 William S. Vare (R) R+11.5
1922 David A. Reed (R) R+25.5
1920 Boies Penrose (R) R+32.8
1916 Philander Knox (R) R+19.1
1914 Boies Penrose (R) R+22.8