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United States · Election results history · 2016 Senate · Kentucky
Election 2016 Results

Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.

2016 US Senate election in Kentucky

Rand Paul (Republican) beat Jim Gray (Democrat) in Kentucky in 2016, 57.3% to 42.7%, a margin of 14.5 points and 276,931 votes.

The Republican hold continued from 2010, when Rand Paul also won.

Republicans led in 113 of the 120 counties and Democrats in 7. The largest, Jefferson, cast 352,609 votes and went to the Democrat by 17.9 points. The closest was Wolfe, where 39 votes separated the two parties.

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Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

Senate

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Rand Paul won Republican 1,090,177 57.3%
Jim Gray Democratic 813,246 42.7%
All other candidates 42 0.0%
Total1,903,465

Every county

CountyDemocratRepublicanOthersTotalMargin
Jefferson 207,610 58.9% 144,628 41.0% 371 352,609 D+17.9
Fayette 82,401 60.4% 54,064 39.6% 136,465 D+20.8
Kenton 24,370 34.0% 47,375 66.0% 71,745 R+32.1
Boone 15,303 26.7% 42,032 73.3% 57,335 R+46.6
Warren 19,191 39.7% 29,190 60.3% 48,381 R+20.7
Daviess 18,768 41.3% 26,652 58.7% 45,420 R+17.4
Hardin 18,046 42.0% 24,891 58.0% 42,937 R+15.9
Campbell 14,855 35.2% 27,327 64.8% 1 42,183 R+29.6
Madison 16,439 44.1% 20,817 55.9% 37,256 R+11.8
Bullitt 12,619 35.4% 23,022 64.6% 35,641 R+29.2
Oldham 11,718 35.5% 21,250 64.5% 32,968 R+28.9
McCracken 11,552 37.0% 19,699 63.0% 31,251 R+26.1
Pulaski 7,648 27.7% 19,971 72.3% 27,619 R+44.6
Laurel 6,065 25.0% 18,216 75.0% 24,281 R+50.0
Scott 10,833 44.8% 13,340 55.2% 24,173 R+10.4
Franklin 13,860 58.1% 10,000 41.9% 23,860 D+16.2
Pike 9,294 39.2% 14,421 60.8% 23,715 R+21.6
Jessamine 9,462 40.6% 13,821 59.4% 23,283 R+18.7
Christian 7,675 35.3% 14,074 64.7% 21,749 R+29.4
Nelson 8,832 42.9% 11,746 57.1% 20,578 R+14.2
Shelby 8,011 39.1% 12,477 60.9% 20,488 R+21.8
Boyd 9,536 47.1% 10,730 52.9% 20,266 R+5.9
Hopkins 6,457 32.2% 13,625 67.8% 20,082 R+35.7
Henderson 8,882 45.5% 10,659 54.5% 19,541 R+9.1
Barren 7,460 40.7% 10,876 59.3% 18,336 R+18.6
Marshall 6,031 36.2% 10,635 63.8% 16,666 R+27.6
Graves 5,394 32.9% 10,996 67.1% 16,390 R+34.2
Clark 7,120 44.1% 9,023 55.9% 16,143 R+11.8
Greenup 7,128 44.3% 8,946 55.7% 16,074 R+11.3
Calloway 6,154 38.5% 9,848 61.5% 16,002 R+23.1
Floyd 7,615 48.5% 8,082 51.5% 15,697 R+3.0
Woodford 6,756 49.7% 6,838 50.3% 13,594 R+0.6
Whitley 3,795 28.0% 9,748 72.0% 13,543 R+44.0
Boyle 5,937 46.0% 6,982 54.0% 12,919 R+8.1
Muhlenberg 5,489 42.7% 7,354 57.3% 12,843 R+14.5
Meade 5,069 41.9% 7,043 58.1% 12,112 R+16.3
Knox 3,322 28.9% 8,162 71.1% 11,484 R+42.1
Anderson 4,475 39.3% 6,910 60.7% 11,385 R+21.4
Montgomery 5,112 45.1% 6,220 54.9% 11,332 R+9.8
Taylor 3,861 34.7% 7,276 65.3% 11,137 R+30.7
Logan 3,214 29.8% 7,555 70.2% 10,769 R+40.3
Mercer 4,113 39.2% 6,371 60.8% 10,484 R+21.5
Grayson 3,307 31.8% 7,097 68.2% 10,404 R+36.4
Ohio 3,505 34.2% 6,742 65.8% 10,247 R+31.6
Perry 3,880 38.1% 6,310 61.9% 10,190 R+23.8
Harlan 2,655 26.3% 7,455 73.7% 10,110 R+47.5
Carter 4,428 44.0% 5,640 56.0% 10,068 R+12.0
Grant 2,334 24.7% 7,125 75.3% 9,459 R+50.7
Spencer 2,989 31.7% 6,447 68.3% 9,436 R+36.6
Lincoln 3,264 34.7% 6,144 65.3% 9,408 R+30.6
Bell 2,638 28.4% 6,637 71.6% 9,275 R+43.1
Johnson 2,968 32.4% 6,187 67.6% 9,155 R+35.2
Bourbon 4,350 49.7% 4,411 50.3% 8,761 R+0.7
Rowan 4,625 52.9% 4,123 47.1% 8,748 D+5.7
Breckinridge 3,233 37.4% 5,413 62.6% 8,646 R+25.2
Letcher 3,175 37.2% 5,364 62.8% 8,539 R+25.6
Marion 4,086 51.2% 3,887 48.8% 7,973 D+2.5
Adair 2,072 26.0% 5,897 74.0% 7,969 R+48.0
Russell 2,061 25.9% 5,904 74.1% 7,965 R+48.2
Allen 1,940 24.5% 5,979 75.5% 7,919 R+51.0
Harrison 3,472 45.1% 4,225 54.9% 7,697 R+9.8
Wayne 2,534 32.9% 5,158 67.1% 7,692 R+34.1
Garrard 2,515 33.3% 5,034 66.7% 7,549 R+33.4
Simpson 2,618 35.2% 4,819 64.8% 7,437 R+29.6
Hart 2,647 37.0% 4,504 63.0% 7,151 R+26.0
Henry 2,794 39.4% 4,300 60.6% 7,094 R+21.2
Mason 2,640 37.2% 4,452 62.8% 7,092 R+25.5
Trigg 1,911 28.7% 4,750 71.3% 6,661 R+42.6
Rockcastle 1,614 24.8% 4,889 75.2% 6,503 R+50.4
Clay 1,506 23.4% 4,917 76.6% 6,423 R+53.1
Casey 1,518 24.1% 4,789 75.9% 6,307 R+51.9
Larue 2,185 34.7% 4,111 65.3% 6,296 R+30.6
Fleming 2,555 41.5% 3,597 58.5% 6,152 R+16.9
Union 2,302 37.5% 3,840 62.5% 6,142 R+25.0
Caldwell 2,037 34.4% 3,887 65.6% 5,924 R+31.2
Lawrence 2,218 37.8% 3,652 62.2% 5,870 R+24.4
Pendleton 1,493 25.4% 4,376 74.6% 5,869 R+49.1
Webster 1,996 35.0% 3,712 65.0% 5,708 R+30.1
Washington 2,191 39.4% 3,365 60.6% 5,556 R+21.1
McCreary 1,238 22.3% 4,303 77.7% 5,541 R+55.3
Breathitt 2,672 48.4% 2,854 51.6% 5,526 R+3.3
Butler 1,444 26.3% 4,055 73.7% 5,499 R+47.5
Knott 2,369 43.4% 3,085 56.6% 5,454 R+13.1
Estill 1,920 35.2% 3,528 64.8% 5,448 R+29.5
Jackson 969 18.5% 4,264 81.5% 5,233 R+63.0
Edmonson 1,648 31.7% 3,553 68.3% 5,201 R+36.6
Green 1,459 28.3% 3,688 71.7% 5,147 R+43.3
Lewis 1,434 28.7% 3,569 71.3% 5,003 R+42.7
Magoffin 2,171 44.1% 2,756 55.9% 4,927 R+11.9
Owen 1,527 31.1% 3,388 68.9% 4,915 R+37.9
Powell 2,225 45.5% 2,664 54.5% 4,889 R+9.0
Monroe 881 18.7% 3,842 81.3% 4,723 R+62.7
Todd 1,170 25.0% 3,514 75.0% 4,684 R+50.0
Morgan 2,010 43.6% 2,602 56.4% 4,612 R+12.8
Livingston 1,514 33.1% 3,063 66.9% 4,577 R+33.8
Metcalfe 1,660 36.8% 2,845 63.2% 4,505 R+26.3
McLean 1,681 37.3% 2,820 62.7% 4,501 R+25.3
Bath 2,154 48.1% 2,324 51.9% 4,478 R+3.8
Leslie 679 16.0% 3,575 84.0% 4,254 R+68.1
Hancock 1,842 43.6% 2,383 56.4% 4,225 R+12.8
Clinton 679 16.2% 3,513 83.8% 4,192 R+67.6
Ballard 1,367 33.4% 2,725 66.6% 4,092 R+33.2
Crittenden 1,090 27.5% 2,877 72.5% 3,967 R+45.0
Lyon 1,508 38.3% 2,431 61.7% 3,939 R+23.4
Carroll 1,625 42.6% 2,193 57.4% 3,818 R+14.9
Trimble 1,434 38.1% 2,326 61.9% 3,760 R+23.7
Martin 909 24.4% 2,814 75.6% 3,723 R+51.2
Bracken 964 27.9% 2,488 72.1% 3,452 R+44.1
Gallatin 939 28.5% 2,358 71.5% 3,297 R+43.0
Cumberland 631 21.8% 2,261 78.2% 2,892 R+56.4
Nicholas 1,434 51.2% 1,365 48.8% 2,799 D+2.5
Menifee 1,201 44.2% 1,514 55.8% 2,715 R+11.5
Elliott 1,477 56.1% 1,157 43.9% 2,634 D+12.1
Lee 898 34.7% 1,688 65.3% 2,586 R+30.5
Carlisle 769 29.8% 1,813 70.2% 2,582 R+40.4
Wolfe 1,268 49.2% 1,307 50.8% 2,575 R+1.5
Fulton 1,029 43.8% 1,322 56.2% 2,351 R+12.5
Hickman 722 33.9% 1,409 66.1% 2,131 R+32.2
Owsley 481 29.3% 1,160 70.7% 1,641 R+41.4
Robertson 344 34.6% 650 65.4% 994 R+30.8

Margin: the Democrat's share of all votes minus the Republican's. Sources and how the results were checked.

Kentucky Senate elections we hold

YearWinnerMargin
2022 Rand Paul (R) R+23.6
2020 Mitch McConnell (R) R+19.5
2016 Rand Paul (R) R+14.5
2014 Mich McConnell (R) R+15.5
2010 Rand Paul (R) R+11.5
2008 Mitch McConnell (R) R+5.9
2004 Jim Bunning (R) R+1.3
2002 Mitch McConnell (R) R+29.4
1998 Jim Bunning (R) R+0.6
1996 Mitch McConnell (R) R+12.6
1992 Wendell H. Ford (D) D+27.1
1990 Mitch McConnell (R) R+4.4
1986 Wendell H. Ford (D) D+48.8
1984 Mitch McConnell (R) R+0.4
1980 Wendell H. Ford (D) D+30.3
1978 Walter D. Huddleston (D) D+24.1
1974 Wendell Ford (D) D+9.4
1972 Walter D. Huddleston (D) D+3.3
1968 Marlow W. Cook (R) R+3.7
1966 John Sherman Cooper (R) R+29.1
1962 Thruston B. Morton (R) R+5.5
1960 John Sherman Cooper (R) R+18.4
1956 Thruston B. Morton (R) R+0.7
1954 Alben W. Barkley (D) D+8.9
1950 Earle C. Clements (D) D+9.1
1948 Virgil Chapman (D) D+3.1
1944 Alben W. Barkley (D) D+9.9
1942 Happy Chandler (D) D+10.7
1938 Alben W. Barkley (D) D+24.1
1936 Marvel M. Logan (D) D+19.0
1932 Alben W. Barkley (D) D+18.6
1930 Marvel M. Logan (D) D+4.3
1926 Alben W. Barkley (D) D+3.7
1924 Frederic M. Sackett (R) R+3.1
1920 Richard P. Ernst (R) R+0.6
1918 Augustus Owsley Stanley (D) D+1.5
1914 John C.W. Beckham (D) D+9.4