United States Presidential election7 Nov 2028in 728 days Senate D 97% House D 58% Calendar Track record Research
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Election 2018 Results

Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.

2018 US Senate election in Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema (Democrat) beat Martha McSally (Republican) in Arizona in 2018, 50.0% to 47.6%, a margin of 2.3 points and 55,900 votes.

Arizona changed party: in 2012 it went Republican, for Jeff Flake.

Republicans led in 10 of the 15 counties and Democrats in 5. The largest, Maricopa, cast 1,439,917 votes and went to the Democrat by 4.2 points. The closest was Greenlee, where 374 votes separated the two parties.

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Early projection, based on early and incomplete polling: the likely matchups, each weighted by the betting markets' odds of both nominations, not a result. Each county is its 2024 presidential margin moved by its state's projected swing; set a national vote and every state, district and county moves by the same amount from our projection. Colours run in 100 steps from a safe Republican to a safe Democratic margin. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

Senate

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Kyrsten Sinema won Democratic 1,191,100 50.0%
Martha McSally Republican 1,135,200 47.6%
All other candidates 58,008 2.4%
Total2,384,308

Every county

CountyDemocratRepublicanOthersTotalMargin
Maricopa 732,761 50.9% 672,505 46.7% 34,651 1,439,917 D+4.2
Pima 221,242 56.6% 160,550 41.1% 9,266 391,058 D+15.5
Pinal 50,395 42.9% 63,782 54.3% 3,383 117,560 R+11.4
Yavapai 40,160 37.0% 65,308 60.2% 3,039 108,507 R+23.2
Mohave 19,214 26.8% 50,209 70.1% 2,186 71,609 R+43.3
Coconino 34,240 61.2% 19,249 34.4% 2,441 55,930 D+26.8
Cochise 17,383 38.1% 26,929 59.0% 1,306 45,618 R+20.9
Yuma 19,880 45.4% 22,532 51.4% 1,412 43,824 R+6.1
Navajo 16,624 45.3% 18,767 51.2% 1,296 36,687 R+5.8
Apache 16,298 64.9% 7,810 31.1% 1,015 25,123 D+33.8
Gila 7,643 37.2% 12,180 59.3% 706 20,529 R+22.1
Santa Cruz 9,241 68.5% 3,828 28.4% 426 13,495 D+40.1
Graham 3,368 31.7% 6,870 64.7% 386 10,624 R+33.0
La Paz 1,609 31.7% 3,265 64.3% 207 5,081 R+32.6
Greenlee 1,042 40.5% 1,416 55.1% 113 2,571 R+14.5

Margin: the Democrat's share of all votes minus the Republican's. Sources and how the results were checked.

Arizona Senate elections we hold

YearWinnerMargin
2024 Ruben Gallego (D) D+2.4
2022 Mark Kelly (D) D+4.9
2018 Kyrsten Sinema (D) D+2.3
2016 John McCain (R) R+13.0
2012 Jeff Flake (R) R+3.0
2010 John McCain (R) R+24.2
2006 Jon Kyl (R) R+9.8
2004 John McCain (R) R+56.1
2000 Jon Kyl (R) R+79.3
1998 John McCain (R) R+41.6
1994 Jon Kyl (R) R+14.2
1992 John McCain (R) R+24.2
1988 Dennis Deconcini (D) D+15.7
1986 John McCain (R) R+21.0
1982 Dennis Deconcini (D) D+16.6
1980 Barry Goldwater (R) R+1.1
1976 Dennis Deconcini (D) D+10.7
1974 Barry Goldwater (R) R+16.5
1970 Paul Fannin (R) R+12.0
1968 Barry Goldwater (R) R+14.4
1964 Paul Fannin (R) R+2.9
1962 Carl Hayden (D) D+9.9
1958 Barry Goldwater (R) R+12.1
1956 Carl Hayden (D) D+22.8
1952 Barry Goldwater (R) R+2.6
1950 Carl Hayden (D) D+25.6
1946 Ernest McFarland (D) D+39.1
1944 Carl Hayden (D) D+38.7
1940 Ernest McFarland (D) D+43.6
1938 Carl Hayden (D) D+53.0
1934 Henry Ashurst (D) D+46.4
1932 Carl Hayden (D) D+34.6
1928 Henry Ashurst (D) D+8.5
1926 Carl Hayden (D) D+16.7
1922 Henry Ashurst (D) D+30.1
1920 Ralph H. Cameron (R) R+10.3
1916 Henry Ashurst (D) D+16.0
1914 Marcus A. Smith (D) D+34.3