United States Presidential election7 Nov 2028in 728 days Senate D 97% House D 58% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com United States
Closest results
United States · live results · 3 November 2026
Election 2026 midterms Live count

Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.

Live results

On election night we read the official results feeds of 26 states straight from their election offices, every few minutes, and show each Senate, governor and House race's count against the vote we expect there. A live model turns the count into a chance for each race and for control of each chamber, updated with every read, and we call a race once we are 97% sure of the winner. Our calls are our judgement; the states certify the results, weeks later.

Every Senate, governor and House race with a result so far, against the favourite in the forecast we published before the polls closed. A race has a result here once we have called it (97% sure on the count, after its polls close) or its count is in (95% of the votes we expect). Our calls are our judgement until the states certify, so this page will change as the last races are settled.

Races with a result468of 487 contested
Favourite won45196%
Upsets17our favourite lost
Brier score0.0320 is perfect; 0.25 is a coin toss

Our ratings against the results: Senate and governors

Each race sits in the column of the rating our forecast gave it, coloured by who has it now: solid when won, pale when only leading, hatched when the seat changed hands, grey when nothing is counted. A red race in a blue column is an upset.

Solid D

NHAZ·GME·GHI·GMN·GORDEGANCILVANMNY·GCO·GCOCA·GIL·GMARICT·GMA·GMD·GPA·GRI·G

Likely D

MENM·GWI·GMIOR·GMNIA·GMI·GNJ

Lean D

GA·GIAAK·GKSOH·STXAKOH·G

Toss-up

NEKS·GNV·GVT·G

Lean R

LAFL·GTX·GSC

Likely R

AL·GNE·GSDOK·GMSWY·GFL·SIDNH·G

Solid R

ID·GMTTNSD·GALOKAR·GWVARWYTN·GKYSC·G
WonLeadingGainNo count·G governor, ·S special Senate election

Were our chances honest?

A forecast that says 70% should see its favourite lose about three times in ten. Each band below compares how often the favourite won with how often we said they would.

Our favourite's chanceRacesWe expected the favourite to winThe favourite won
50 to 65%2458%67%
65 to 85%4676%93%
85 to 99%12494%95%
99% or more274100%100%

Where our favourite lost (17)

RaceWe hadWonHow we know
North Carolina's 9th districtRepublican 93%Democratour call
North Carolina's 13th districtRepublican 92%Democratour call
North Carolina's 6th districtRepublican 90%Democratour call
North Carolina's 14th districtRepublican 88%Democratour call
New Jersey's 2nd districtRepublican 87%Democratour call
Indiana's 5th districtRepublican 85%Democratour call
Texas's 9th districtRepublican 78%Democratour call
Nevada's 2nd districtRepublican 74%Democratour call
Texas's 23rd districtRepublican 68%Democratour call
Texas governorRepublican 63%Democratour call
South Carolina SenateRepublican 62%Democratour call
South Carolina's 1st districtRepublican 59%Democratour call
Colorado's 5th districtRepublican 58%Democratour call
Vermont governorDemocrat 58%Republicanour call
Alabama's 2nd districtRepublican 57%Democratour call
Ohio's 7th districtRepublican 55%Democratour call
Ohio's 15th districtRepublican 52%Democratour call

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