United States Presidential election7 Nov 2028in 729 days Senate D 97% House D 58% Calendar Track record Research
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Closest results
United States · live results · 3 November 2026
Election 2026 midterms Live count

Each election opens in its own mode: the forecast before the votes are counted, the live count while races are still too close to call, and the results once every race is decided.

Live results

On election night we read the official results feeds of 26 states straight from their election offices, every few minutes, and show each Senate, governor and House race's count against the vote we expect there. A live model turns the count into a chance for each race and for control of each chamber, updated with every read, and we call a race once we are 97% sure of the winner. Our calls are our judgement; the states certify the results, weeks later.

The night forecast is switched off (admin settings, "Show the night forecast"), or the forecast isn't loaded.

Early returns against what we expect

Each county's benchmark is its 2024 presidential margin, moved by the same amount everywhere so the state adds up to our forecast, with the votes we expect from its 2022 turnout.

Like with like. Mail ballots lean Democratic and Election Day votes Republican, and states count them in different orders, so a first batch of mail can look like a Democratic night when it isn't. Where a state's feed splits its count by method (North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, Iowa, and Kent, Ingham, Cuyahoga and Lancaster counties), each method is compared with how that method voted in the same county in 2024, from the state's own 2024 results. Where a feed gives totals only, a county counts towards the race's read only once it looks complete (95% of the votes we expect). This assumes every method moves by the same amount since 2024; who votes by mail and who votes on the day shifts between a presidential year and a midterm, so one method running ahead of the others can be a change in the mix rather than a miss in the polls.

"If the rest runs the same" moves our forecast by that like-for-like gap; it's a plain read, not the live model's projection. Unofficial results from the states' own feeds.

Kansas governor Cindy Holscher v Ty Masterson · our forecast Even, 51% Democrat · totals only

Counted1,094,862 of ~1,009,221 expected (108%) · 105 of 105 counties
Like-for-like gap0.5 pts better for the Republican on 1,038,378 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+0.5
Raw (not like for like)D+0.7 counted, D+1.4 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Johnson ✓ D+8.5 D+24.8 262,697 295,428 (112%) D+22.8 −2.0
Sedgwick ✓ R+13.8 D+2.4 155,206 181,679 (117%) D+4.7 +2.2
Shawnee ✓ D+0.5 D+16.8 65,914 69,600 (106%) D+14.2 −2.6
Douglas ✓ D+38.0 D+54.3 47,396 50,732 (107%) D+52.2 −2.1
Wyandotte ✓ D+23.9 D+40.1 35,035 42,904 (122%) D+45.8 +5.7
Leavenworth ✓ R+22.8 R+6.5 26,893 28,286 (105%) R+6.6 −0.1
Butler ✓ R+41.2 R+24.9 23,756 25,933 (109%) R+26.0 −1.1
Reno ✓ R+34.5 R+18.2 20,776 21,644 (104%) R+20.1 −1.9
Riley ✓ D+1.8 D+18.1 18,195 19,946 (110%) D+17.4 −0.6
Saline ✓ R+31.6 R+15.3 17,731 19,520 (110%) R+17.7 −2.4
Miami ✓ R+39.5 R+23.2 13,494 14,042 (104%) R+23.8 −0.5
Harvey ✓ R+21.1 R+4.8 12,917 13,653 (106%) R+7.6 −2.8
Crawford ✓ R+25.3 R+9.0 11,834 12,188 (103%) R+7.9 +1.1
McPherson ✓ R+41.1 R+24.8 11,154 11,482 (103%) R+28.6 −3.8
Lyon ✓ R+14.7 D+1.6 10,128 11,216 (111%) D+2.5 +1.0
Pottawatomie ✓ R+47.6 R+31.4 10,503 10,798 (103%) R+33.6 −2.3
Ellis ✓ R+46.1 R+29.9 10,552 10,623 (101%) R+27.9 +2.0
Cowley ✓ R+40.3 R+24.0 10,671 10,453 (98%) R+24.9 −0.8
Franklin ✓ R+40.1 R+23.8 9,535 9,758 (102%) R+23.5 +0.3
Finney ✓ R+34.7 R+18.4 7,191 9,191 (128%) R+0.9 +17.5
Montgomery R+51.1 R+34.8 9,611 9,016 (94%) R+34.1 +0.7 *
Barton ✓ R+56.7 R+40.5 8,095 8,429 (104%) R+42.0 −1.5
Sumner ✓ R+50.1 R+33.8 7,890 8,083 (102%) R+33.0 +0.8
Jefferson ✓ R+36.9 R+20.6 7,622 7,880 (103%) R+23.7 −3.0
Ford ✓ R+38.4 R+22.1 5,994 7,183 (120%) R+2.0 +20.1
Dickinson ✓ R+55.0 R+38.7 6,943 7,160 (103%) R+41.5 −2.9
Geary ✓ R+17.6 R+1.3 6,075 6,716 (111%) D+0.1 +1.4
Osage ✓ R+48.0 R+31.8 6,285 6,062 (96%) R+34.2 −2.5
Cherokee R+52.9 R+36.7 6,433 6,027 (94%) R+40.0 −3.3 *
Labette ✓ R+38.2 R+21.9 5,932 5,819 (98%) R+23.7 −1.8
Jackson ✓ R+42.6 R+26.3 5,105 5,270 (103%) R+27.8 −1.5
Atchison R+37.4 R+21.1 5,486 5,168 (94%) R+21.1 −0.0 *
Neosho ✓ R+48.1 R+31.9 5,106 4,895 (96%) R+33.0 −1.1
Marion ✓ R+49.1 R+32.8 4,815 4,681 (97%) R+36.9 −4.1
Bourbon R+54.2 R+37.9 4,839 4,578 (95%) R+42.4 −4.5 *
Nemaha ✓ R+67.0 R+50.8 4,609 4,466 (97%) R+59.7 −8.9
Seward ✓ R+39.0 R+22.7 2,944 4,174 (142%) D+9.0 +31.7
Allen ✓ R+46.1 R+29.9 4,138 4,067 (98%) R+29.3 +0.6
Marshall ✓ R+49.1 R+32.8 3,899 3,885 (100%) R+39.9 −7.1
Linn ✓ R+64.6 R+48.3 3,723 3,620 (97%) R+53.3 −5.0
Coffey ✓ R+55.7 R+39.4 3,443 3,359 (98%) R+45.6 −6.2
Brown ✓ R+47.9 R+31.7 3,367 3,355 (100%) R+37.8 −6.1
Clay ✓ R+55.5 R+39.2 3,301 3,314 (100%) R+45.5 −6.3
Pratt ✓ R+51.4 R+35.2 3,128 3,280 (105%) R+36.4 −1.2
Wabaunsee ✓ R+48.8 R+32.5 3,353 3,246 (97%) R+38.1 −5.6
Rice ✓ R+56.7 R+40.4 3,112 3,215 (103%) R+42.3 −1.9
Cloud ✓ R+60.6 R+44.3 3,209 3,147 (98%) R+47.1 −2.8
Kingman ✓ R+59.9 R+43.7 3,100 3,095 (100%) R+46.9 −3.2
Anderson ✓ R+59.8 R+43.5 2,908 2,845 (98%) R+45.7 −2.2
Thomas ✓ R+65.8 R+49.5 2,888 2,834 (98%) R+53.0 −3.5
Wilson R+62.4 R+46.1 3,322 2,764 (83%) R+52.2 −6.2 *
Doniphan ✓ R+63.5 R+47.3 2,644 2,558 (97%) R+54.0 −6.8
Russell R+61.3 R+45.0 2,717 2,535 (93%) R+50.3 −5.3 *
Mitchell ✓ R+65.6 R+49.3 2,375 2,480 (104%) R+55.3 −6.0
Ottawa ✓ R+66.6 R+50.3 2,388 2,434 (102%) R+57.9 −7.6
Morris ✓ R+46.6 R+30.3 2,244 2,315 (103%) R+29.2 +1.0
Ellsworth ✓ R+52.3 R+36.0 2,244 2,229 (99%) R+38.0 −2.0
Greenwood ✓ R+61.0 R+44.7 2,320 2,216 (96%) R+48.6 −3.9
Washington ✓ R+69.1 R+52.9 2,257 2,159 (96%) R+63.8 −10.9
Pawnee R+51.5 R+35.2 2,155 2,047 (95%) R+39.0 −3.8 *
Phillips R+73.7 R+57.4 2,199 1,971 (90%) R+66.8 −9.4 *
Republic ✓ R+65.7 R+49.4 1,970 1,941 (99%) R+55.3 −5.9
Rooks R+71.2 R+54.9 2,104 1,931 (92%) R+59.0 −4.1 *
Sherman R+68.7 R+52.5 2,052 1,893 (92%) R+58.1 −5.6 *
Harper R+64.0 R+47.7 1,979 1,847 (93%) R+51.8 −4.1 *
Norton ✓ R+67.7 R+51.4 1,799 1,798 (100%) R+58.2 −6.8
Barber R+72.2 R+55.9 1,745 1,655 (95%) R+61.1 −5.2 *
Scott ✓ R+74.7 R+58.4 1,703 1,649 (97%) R+58.8 −0.3
Gray ✓ R+69.0 R+52.7 1,718 1,647 (96%) R+55.6 −2.8
Grant ✓ R+63.0 R+46.7 1,613 1,644 (102%) R+40.9 +5.8
Smith R+68.5 R+52.3 1,645 1,519 (92%) R+60.9 −8.6 *
Stafford ✓ R+64.0 R+47.7 1,571 1,507 (96%) R+50.1 −2.4
Stevens ✓ R+75.5 R+59.2 1,401 1,358 (97%) R+57.3 +1.9
Meade ✓ R+69.6 R+53.3 1,312 1,356 (103%) R+56.0 −2.7
Trego ✓ R+71.0 R+54.7 1,263 1,347 (107%) R+59.3 −4.6
Osborne R+68.5 R+52.3 1,440 1,293 (90%) R+59.5 −7.2 *
Rush ✓ R+65.4 R+49.2 1,334 1,287 (96%) R+51.2 −2.0
Lincoln ✓ R+65.2 R+49.0 1,204 1,278 (106%) R+56.2 −7.2
Jewell ✓ R+75.9 R+59.6 1,208 1,199 (99%) R+71.0 −11.4
Chase ✓ R+50.8 R+34.5 1,185 1,145 (97%) R+37.1 −2.6
Woodson R+61.3 R+45.0 1,185 1,113 (94%) R+50.0 −5.0 *
Chautauqua R+71.3 R+55.0 1,182 1,109 (94%) R+61.2 −6.2 *
Logan ✓ R+71.6 R+55.4 1,105 1,103 (100%) R+62.8 −7.5
Decatur ✓ R+69.0 R+52.7 1,132 1,089 (96%) R+63.3 −10.5
Rawlins R+72.6 R+56.3 1,155 1,073 (93%) R+60.7 −4.4 *
Ness R+78.9 R+62.7 1,157 1,071 (93%) R+68.3 −5.6 *
Cheyenne ✓ R+68.8 R+52.6 1,039 1,065 (103%) R+63.0 −10.4
Sheridan ✓ R+80.3 R+64.1 1,112 1,061 (95%) R+74.9 −10.9
Kearny ✓ R+68.4 R+52.1 957 1,030 (108%) R+54.0 −1.8
Edwards R+65.3 R+49.1 1,093 1,019 (93%) R+51.3 −2.3 *
Graham ✓ R+65.7 R+49.4 1,033 1,012 (98%) R+53.8 −4.4
Haskell ✓ R+64.5 R+48.2 994 1,010 (102%) R+50.1 −1.9
Elk R+69.7 R+53.4 1,076 997 (93%) R+60.1 −6.7 *
Gove R+77.1 R+60.9 1,161 952 (82%) R+66.2 −5.3 *
Kiowa R+71.4 R+55.1 944 881 (93%) R+61.6 −6.5 *
Morton R+73.4 R+57.1 808 761 (94%) R+62.9 −5.8 *
Clark R+72.8 R+56.5 854 747 (87%) R+56.4 +0.2 *
Hodgeman R+70.5 R+54.2 807 727 (90%) R+58.7 −4.5 *
Wichita ✓ R+73.6 R+57.3 713 692 (97%) R+63.3 −6.0
Lane ✓ R+70.9 R+54.7 681 649 (95%) R+61.5 −6.8
Comanche R+68.3 R+52.0 744 630 (85%) R+54.9 −2.9 *
Wallace R+84.8 R+68.5 672 592 (88%) R+76.7 −8.2 *
Hamilton R+66.3 R+50.0 605 568 (94%) R+49.3 +0.7 *
Stanton ✓ R+63.6 R+47.3 517 524 (101%) R+53.8 −6.5
Greeley ✓ R+73.4 R+57.1 453 440 (97%) R+54.5 +2.5

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Nebraska Senate Dan Osborn v Pete Ricketts · our forecast R+0.9, 57% Republican · totals only

Counted754,430 of ~666,795 expected (113%) · 93 of 93 counties
Like-for-like gap6.1 pts better for the Republican on 752,871 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+7.0
Raw (not like for like)R+6.2 counted, R+0.1 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Douglas ✓ D+10.1 I+30.2 190,746 219,335 (115%) I+21.1 −9.1
Lancaster ✓ D+4.3 I+24.4 114,001 127,622 (112%) I+20.0 −4.4
Sarpy ✓ R+11.6 I+8.5 64,436 79,640 (124%) I+4.4 −4.1
Buffalo ✓ R+44.7 R+24.6 15,897 19,252 (121%) R+28.8 −4.2
Hall ✓ R+37.6 R+17.5 15,167 18,115 (119%) R+19.9 −2.4
Dodge ✓ R+32.4 R+12.4 11,515 12,936 (112%) R+15.5 −3.2
Lincoln ✓ R+54.9 R+34.8 12,052 12,838 (107%) R+40.7 −5.9
Platte ✓ R+58.0 R+38.0 11,106 12,274 (111%) R+43.0 −5.1
Madison ✓ R+55.7 R+35.6 11,617 12,131 (104%) R+41.2 −5.5
Cass ✓ R+37.0 R+16.9 11,336 12,016 (106%) R+21.4 −4.5
Scotts Bluff ✓ R+47.5 R+27.4 9,816 11,673 (119%) R+28.4 −1.0
Adams ✓ R+41.4 R+21.3 10,254 11,034 (108%) R+26.5 −5.1
Saunders ✓ R+46.2 R+26.1 9,606 10,791 (112%) R+31.2 −5.1
Washington ✓ R+42.2 R+22.1 8,803 9,679 (110%) R+28.8 −6.7
Gage ✓ R+39.0 R+18.9 7,991 8,617 (108%) R+21.7 −2.8
Seward ✓ R+46.3 R+26.3 6,721 7,529 (112%) R+32.9 −6.6
Dawson ✓ R+49.3 R+29.3 5,618 6,904 (123%) R+27.8 +1.5
Otoe ✓ R+38.7 R+18.6 5,751 6,476 (113%) R+22.1 −3.4
York ✓ R+51.1 R+31.0 5,011 5,395 (108%) R+38.1 −7.1
Dakota ✓ R+29.7 R+9.6 3,603 4,971 (138%) R+13.0 −3.4
Custer ✓ R+71.9 R+51.9 4,326 4,661 (108%) R+61.8 −10.0
Saline ✓ R+33.1 R+13.0 3,755 4,539 (121%) R+9.7 +3.3
Hamilton ✓ R+60.1 R+40.0 4,068 4,347 (107%) R+46.6 −6.6
Red Willow ✓ R+68.1 R+48.0 3,986 4,257 (107%) R+54.0 −6.0
Holt ✓ R+73.6 R+53.5 3,750 4,206 (112%) R+60.7 −7.1
Cedar ✓ R+69.6 R+49.6 3,738 3,911 (105%) R+59.5 −9.9
Phelps ✓ R+68.1 R+48.0 3,675 3,821 (104%) R+55.8 −7.8
Knox ✓ R+62.9 R+42.9 3,648 3,711 (102%) R+53.6 −10.7
Box Butte ✓ R+56.2 R+36.1 3,345 3,591 (107%) R+33.3 +2.8
Butler ✓ R+59.3 R+39.3 3,492 3,585 (103%) R+46.2 −6.9
Merrick ✓ R+64.6 R+44.6 3,302 3,521 (107%) R+49.3 −4.8
Cheyenne ✓ R+63.8 R+43.7 3,313 3,392 (102%) R+48.8 −5.1
Keith ✓ R+63.6 R+43.5 2,891 3,371 (117%) R+50.8 −7.3
Wayne ✓ R+49.0 R+28.9 3,023 3,321 (110%) R+33.0 −4.1
Cuming ✓ R+59.7 R+39.6 3,194 3,312 (104%) R+51.2 −11.5
Pierce ✓ R+75.9 R+55.8 2,851 3,099 (109%) R+64.7 −8.9
Dawes ✓ R+46.8 R+26.7 3,099 3,098 (100%) R+29.8 −3.0
Richardson ✓ R+51.2 R+31.1 2,918 3,061 (105%) R+36.9 −5.8
Burt ✓ R+44.9 R+24.8 2,790 2,993 (107%) R+29.7 −4.9
Kearney ✓ R+57.7 R+37.7 2,536 2,912 (115%) R+46.7 −9.0
Colfax ✓ R+50.7 R+30.6 2,413 2,889 (120%) R+27.1 +3.5
Clay ✓ R+63.1 R+43.0 2,714 2,866 (106%) R+50.7 −7.6
Jefferson ✓ R+45.1 R+25.0 2,665 2,764 (104%) R+29.5 −4.5
Nemaha ✓ R+44.5 R+24.4 2,335 2,759 (118%) R+29.5 −5.1
Antelope ✓ R+76.1 R+56.0 2,347 2,740 (117%) R+64.0 −8.0
Howard ✓ R+62.4 R+42.3 2,422 2,739 (113%) R+51.2 −8.9
Stanton ✓ R+66.4 R+46.3 2,441 2,656 (109%) R+52.4 −6.2
Boone ✓ R+65.7 R+45.7 2,576 2,463 (96%) R+53.2 −7.6
Cherry ✓ R+75.8 R+55.7 2,369 2,446 (103%) R+64.6 −8.8
Fillmore ✓ R+54.6 R+34.5 2,428 2,378 (98%) R+39.7 −5.2
Dixon ✓ R+58.4 R+38.3 2,209 2,267 (103%) R+48.3 −10.1
Thayer ✓ R+60.5 R+40.4 2,160 2,239 (104%) R+47.8 −7.4
Polk ✓ R+63.3 R+43.3 2,052 2,130 (104%) R+51.6 −8.3
Morrill ✓ R+68.1 R+48.0 1,923 2,025 (105%) R+55.0 −7.0
Sheridan ✓ R+69.7 R+49.6 1,678 2,011 (120%) R+57.1 −7.5
Furnas ✓ R+69.5 R+49.4 1,859 1,990 (107%) R+56.1 −6.8
Johnson ✓ R+40.3 R+20.2 1,615 1,820 (113%) R+22.1 −1.9
Valley ✓ R+63.6 R+43.5 1,770 1,811 (102%) R+51.3 −7.8
Nuckolls ✓ R+63.3 R+43.2 1,558 1,716 (110%) R+52.0 −8.8
Thurston ✓ R+6.9 I+13.2 1,290 1,547 (120%) R+2.2 −15.4
Chase ✓ R+77.0 R+56.9 1,525 1,537 (101%) R+62.7 −5.8
Harlan ✓ R+67.7 R+47.6 1,417 1,406 (99%) R+57.3 −9.7
Webster ✓ R+65.1 R+45.0 1,283 1,348 (105%) R+53.6 −8.6
Nance ✓ R+60.1 R+40.0 1,251 1,341 (107%) R+44.7 −4.7
Sherman ✓ R+59.9 R+39.8 1,220 1,311 (107%) R+43.6 −3.8
Kimball ✓ R+66.6 R+46.6 1,333 1,288 (97%) R+51.6 −5.0
Brown ✓ R+74.3 R+54.2 1,154 1,275 (110%) R+63.3 −9.1
Franklin ✓ R+69.3 R+49.3 1,186 1,222 (103%) R+61.9 −12.7
Perkins ✓ R+72.3 R+52.2 1,098 1,162 (106%) R+55.2 −2.9
Pawnee ✓ R+57.8 R+37.7 1,081 1,148 (106%) R+36.4 +1.3
Frontier ✓ R+72.5 R+52.5 1,077 1,121 (104%) R+61.4 −8.9
Hitchcock ✓ R+77.5 R+57.4 1,014 1,071 (106%) R+59.2 −1.8
Greeley ✓ R+67.5 R+47.4 1,011 1,010 (100%) R+50.8 −3.4
Gosper ✓ R+62.6 R+42.6 834 901 (108%) R+54.5 −11.9
Garden ✓ R+70.1 R+50.0 881 893 (101%) R+58.5 −8.5
Boyd ✓ R+74.6 R+54.5 878 887 (101%) R+65.3 −10.8
Garfield ✓ R+76.2 R+56.1 726 824 (113%) R+65.8 −9.7
Deuel ✓ R+68.0 R+48.0 731 779 (107%) R+59.8 −11.9
Rock ✓ R+78.8 R+58.7 585 715 (122%) R+68.7 −10.0
Dundy R+78.5 R+58.4 753 683 (91%) R+63.4 −5.0 *
Sioux ✓ R+76.2 R+56.2 501 500 (100%) R+63.8 −7.6
Keya Paha ✓ R+83.4 R+63.3 378 427 (113%) R+76.3 −13.1
Wheeler ✓ R+75.1 R+55.0 280 391 (140%) R+61.6 −6.7
Hayes ✓ R+91.1 R+71.1 387 384 (99%) R+81.3 −10.2
Loup ✓ R+65.3 R+45.3 324 339 (105%) R+57.2 −12.0
Hooker R+73.2 R+53.1 373 336 (90%) R+61.6 −8.5 *
Logan ✓ R+86.9 R+66.8 324 327 (101%) R+76.8 −10.0
Thomas ✓ R+77.0 R+56.9 306 320 (105%) R+64.7 −7.8
Banner R+80.9 R+60.9 365 314 (86%) R+71.3 −10.5 *
Grant ✓ R+91.3 R+71.2 279 285 (102%) R+84.6 −13.3
Blaine ✓ R+72.7 R+52.6 204 236 (116%) R+68.6 −16.0
McPherson ✓ R+89.5 R+69.4 221 230 (104%) R+80.4 −11.0
Arthur R+87.3 R+67.2 244 226 (93%) R+73.5 −6.2 *

Gap: + is better for the independent than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Nevada governor Aaron Ford v Joe Lombardo · our forecast D+1.1, 57% Democrat · totals only

Counted1,089,636 of ~1,008,047 expected (108%) · 17 of 17 counties
Like-for-like gap8.9 pts better for the Democrat on 1,057,848 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+10.0
Raw (not like for like)D+10.5 counted, D+1.6 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Clark ✓ D+2.7 D+7.5 673,398 741,428 (110%) D+18.2 +10.8
Washoe ✓ D+1.0 D+5.8 192,071 205,200 (107%) D+11.5 +5.7
Douglas ✓ R+33.4 R+28.6 28,877 28,945 (100%) R+33.2 −4.6
Carson City ✓ R+11.5 R+6.6 23,386 24,937 (107%) R+3.2 +3.4
Lyon ✓ R+45.0 R+40.2 23,304 24,335 (104%) R+33.6 +6.6
Nye ✓ R+42.6 R+37.8 20,433 20,902 (102%) R+32.3 +5.6
Elko R+57.4 R+52.6 15,966 15,022 (94%) R+41.6 +11.0 *
Churchill ✓ R+51.1 R+46.2 9,727 9,642 (99%) R+42.1 +4.1
Humboldt R+56.1 R+51.2 5,980 5,533 (93%) R+43.1 +8.2 *
White Pine R+57.9 R+53.1 3,387 3,068 (91%) R+46.3 +6.9 *
Storey R+39.1 R+34.3 2,508 2,224 (89%) R+32.4 +1.9 *
Lander R+63.2 R+58.4 2,154 1,996 (93%) R+49.8 +8.6 *
Lincoln R+73.5 R+68.7 2,095 1,943 (93%) R+67.7 +1.0 *
Pershing ✓ R+55.7 R+50.9 1,736 1,689 (97%) R+47.8 +3.1
Mineral R+36.2 R+31.4 1,830 1,611 (88%) R+21.5 +9.9 *
Eureka ✓ R+78.7 R+73.9 764 770 (101%) R+74.7 −0.8
Esmeralda R+66.7 R+61.8 431 391 (91%) R+50.4 +11.5 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Vermont governor Amanda Janoo v Phil Scott · our forecast D+1.4, 58% Democrat · totals only

Counted309,023 of ~286,543 expected (108%) · 14 of 14 counties
Like-for-like gap8.3 pts better for the Republican on 309,023 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+6.9
Raw (not like for like)R+6.6 counted, D+1.7 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Chittenden ✓ D+53.1 D+22.7 76,146 84,113 (110%) D+6.6 −16.0
Washington ✓ D+43.0 D+12.5 28,055 31,092 (111%) D+1.1 −11.4
Windsor ✓ D+35.3 D+4.9 27,021 28,336 (105%) R+2.1 −7.0
Rutland ✓ D+5.2 R+25.2 26,323 26,827 (102%) R+31.1 −5.9
Windham ✓ D+42.3 D+11.9 20,009 21,420 (107%) D+20.1 +8.2
Franklin ✓ D+3.0 R+27.5 19,762 21,315 (108%) R+36.1 −8.6
Addison ✓ D+35.6 D+5.1 18,054 19,745 (109%) R+2.7 −7.8
Bennington ✓ D+22.4 R+8.1 15,884 16,484 (104%) R+6.6 +1.5
Orange ✓ D+20.0 R+10.4 13,917 14,890 (107%) R+12.9 −2.4
Caledonia ✓ D+12.3 R+18.1 12,765 13,832 (108%) R+20.1 −1.9
Lamoille ✓ D+35.6 D+5.1 11,530 12,506 (108%) R+11.5 −16.6
Orleans ✓ R+1.5 R+32.0 10,708 11,605 (108%) R+33.4 −1.4
Grand Isle ✓ D+20.9 R+9.5 3,960 4,278 (108%) R+28.6 −19.1
Essex ✓ R+15.9 R+46.4 2,409 2,580 (107%) R+44.3 +2.1

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Georgia governor Keisha Lance Bottoms v Rick Jackson · our forecast D+1.8, 62% Democrat · count split by method

Counted4,182,507 of ~3,954,033 expected (106%) · 159 of 160 counties
Like-for-like gap6.1 pts better for the Democrat on 4,179,232 votes (4,179,232 compared by method)
If the rest runs the sameD+7.9
Raw (not like for like)D+8.7 counted, D+3.1 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
How castCountedCounted marginSame method, expectedGap
Early in person2,684,826D+16.8D+4.4+12.4
Mail135,609D+26.5D+32.0−5.5
Election Day1,358,142R+9.2R+4.1−5.1
Provisional655D+26.4D+17.9+8.5
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Fulton ✓ D+44.9 D+47.8 419,884 456,186 (109%) D+47.8 +0.5 ≡
Gwinnett ✓ D+16.5 D+19.5 299,482 343,946 (115%) D+32.5 +14.1 ≡
Cobb ✓ D+14.9 D+17.8 312,215 336,220 (108%) D+22.4 +5.8 ≡
DeKalb ✓ D+64.8 D+67.7 298,229 320,755 (108%) D+69.6 +2.9 ≡
Cherokee ✓ R+39.0 R+36.0 120,374 126,945 (105%) R+32.7 +3.8 ≡
Chatham ✓ D+18.0 D+21.0 106,329 111,516 (105%) D+25.9 +5.4 ≡
Henry ✓ D+29.7 D+32.6 95,568 109,698 (115%) D+46.4 +14.5 ≡
Forsyth ✓ R+33.1 R+30.1 102,446 107,132 (105%) R+27.1 +3.0 ≡
Clayton ✓ D+69.2 D+72.2 84,136 95,858 (114%) D+79.3 +7.3 ≡
Hall ✓ R+43.8 R+40.8 73,516 78,834 (107%) R+32.4 +7.8 ≡
Paulding ✓ R+24.1 R+21.2 67,004 74,580 (111%) R+9.1 +12.4 ≡
Columbia ✓ R+25.6 R+22.7 64,572 67,538 (105%) R+17.2 +6.2 ≡
Coweta ✓ R+33.9 R+30.9 63,726 66,838 (105%) R+26.0 +5.5 ≡
Richmond ✓ D+36.1 D+39.1 64,156 66,620 (104%) D+45.2 +7.1 ≡
Houston ✓ R+11.3 R+8.3 59,210 64,924 (110%) D+0.8 +8.8 ≡
Fayette ✓ R+3.2 R+0.2 60,346 62,278 (103%) D+3.6 +4.9 ≡
Muscogee ✓ D+23.4 D+26.3 59,462 62,202 (105%) D+33.2 +8.0 ≡
Douglas ✓ D+31.5 D+34.4 52,930 59,399 (112%) D+46.9 +13.1 ≡
Bibb ✓ D+22.4 D+25.4 54,200 55,303 (102%) D+30.5 +5.6 ≡
Newton ✓ D+15.1 D+18.1 42,876 47,853 (112%) D+30.9 +14.7 ≡
Carroll ✓ R+41.2 R+38.2 43,727 44,982 (103%) R+30.2 +9.1 ≡
Walton ✓ R+45.9 R+42.9 42,452 44,723 (105%) R+36.8 +6.5 ≡
Clarke ✓ D+38.3 D+41.3 40,316 42,657 (106%) D+47.6 +7.3 ≡
Bartow ✓ R+51.0 R+48.0 39,997 42,313 (106%) R+39.3 +9.2 ≡
Rockdale ✓ D+47.5 D+50.5 34,908 38,801 (111%) D+59.2 +9.8 ≡
Jackson ✓ R+55.1 R+52.1 31,881 35,978 (113%) R+45.3 +6.4 ≡
Lowndes ✓ R+18.0 R+15.0 34,760 35,587 (102%) R+6.7 +8.5 ≡
Glynn ✓ R+26.0 R+23.0 33,279 33,449 (101%) R+21.9 +1.0 ≡
Barrow ✓ R+40.5 R+37.5 29,430 32,954 (112%) R+24.4 +13.1 ≡
Floyd ✓ R+42.0 R+39.0 32,078 32,276 (101%) R+31.0 +8.9 ≡
Whitfield ✓ R+44.4 R+41.5 27,014 29,875 (111%) R+23.3 +18.7 ≡
Dougherty ✓ D+41.1 D+44.1 26,709 27,210 (102%) D+48.0 +4.5 ≡
Spalding ✓ R+16.7 R+13.7 24,395 25,682 (105%) R+4.9 +8.9 ≡
Effingham ✓ R+49.1 R+46.1 25,398 25,420 (100%) R+38.1 +8.6 ≡
Bulloch ✓ R+29.0 R+26.0 23,591 24,604 (104%) R+19.1 +8.3 ≡
Catoosa ✓ R+55.5 R+52.5 24,503 23,630 (96%) R+48.4 +4.6 ≡
Troup ✓ R+24.4 R+21.4 23,256 23,206 (100%) R+12.8 +7.5 ≡
Oconee ✓ R+35.9 R+33.0 22,478 22,678 (101%) R+36.4 −2.0 ≡
Walker ✓ R+59.3 R+56.3 22,117 21,290 (96%) R+52.3 +4.3 ≡
Camden ✓ R+35.7 R+32.7 17,945 18,984 (106%) R+27.5 +5.7 ≡
Gordon ✓ R+63.4 R+60.5 18,907 18,920 (100%) R+51.6 +9.2 ≡
Laurens ✓ R+32.7 R+29.7 18,550 18,120 (98%) R+24.8 +5.7 ≡
Bryan ✓ R+36.3 R+33.4 17,006 17,993 (106%) R+24.7 +9.4 ≡
Habersham ✓ R+64.9 R+61.9 16,990 17,447 (103%) R+58.2 +3.5 ≡
Harris ✓ R+46.1 R+43.1 17,039 17,130 (101%) R+39.7 +4.2 ≡
Liberty ✓ D+17.4 D+20.4 15,415 16,937 (110%) D+32.7 +13.6 ≡
Thomas ✓ R+24.1 R+21.1 17,287 16,884 (98%) R+18.5 +1.8 ≡
Pickens ✓ R+65.8 R+62.8 15,086 15,347 (102%) R+62.9 +1.2 ≡
Baldwin ✓ R+2.2 D+0.8 15,002 15,085 (101%) D+3.5 +2.2 ≡
Dawson ✓ R+65.2 R+62.2 13,978 14,436 (103%) R+60.0 +2.6 ≡
Union ✓ R+62.5 R+59.5 14,312 14,278 (100%) R+63.1 −2.5 ≡
Monroe ✓ R+46.7 R+43.7 13,718 14,118 (103%) R+42.1 +1.9 ≡
Gilmer ✓ R+62.6 R+59.6 14,086 13,999 (99%) R+58.2 +2.6 ≡
Tift ✓ R+35.7 R+32.7 13,044 13,322 (102%) R+27.4 +4.7 ≡
Polk ✓ R+60.5 R+57.6 13,640 13,280 (97%) R+50.1 +7.1 ≡
Lee ✓ R+43.5 R+40.6 13,587 13,275 (98%) R+32.4 +7.6 ≡
Lumpkin ✓ R+61.7 R+58.7 12,737 12,929 (102%) R+57.8 +1.7 ≡
White ✓ R+68.5 R+65.5 12,730 12,588 (99%) R+66.2 −0.1 ≡
Madison ✓ R+54.8 R+51.8 12,554 12,487 (99%) R+46.3 +5.2 ≡
Colquitt ✓ R+50.2 R+47.2 12,598 12,434 (99%) R+39.1 +8.7 ≡
Jones ✓ R+38.0 R+35.1 12,312 11,977 (97%) R+28.2 +7.3 ≡
Coffee ✓ R+45.1 R+42.2 11,905 11,863 (100%) R+30.6 +10.7 ≡
Fannin R+64.8 R+61.8 12,637 11,609 (92%) R+61.5 +2.1 ≡
Murray ✓ R+71.6 R+68.6 11,533 11,360 (98%) R+60.8 +7.1 ≡
Haralson ✓ R+74.4 R+71.4 11,651 11,333 (97%) R+70.5 +1.3 ≡
Greene ✓ R+28.9 R+26.0 10,508 11,177 (106%) R+34.0 −10.1 ≡
Hart ✓ R+54.8 R+51.8 10,560 10,814 (102%) R+49.0 +2.6 ≡
Peach ✓ R+6.0 R+3.1 10,039 10,654 (106%) D+4.8 +7.4 ≡
Putnam ✓ R+42.2 R+39.3 10,237 10,633 (104%) R+41.6 −2.8 ≡
Morgan ✓ R+45.9 R+43.0 10,326 10,521 (102%) R+43.2 +0.4 ≡
Ware ✓ R+43.2 R+40.2 10,752 10,232 (95%) R+35.8 +6.1 ≡
Wayne ✓ R+59.8 R+56.8 10,025 9,795 (98%) R+51.1 +5.7 ≡
Upson ✓ R+39.7 R+36.8 10,135 9,793 (97%) R+32.2 +3.3 ≡
Sumter ✓ D+2.2 D+5.2 9,605 9,615 (100%) D+8.0 +3.5 ≡
Butts ✓ R+45.2 R+42.2 9,695 9,595 (99%) R+35.8 +5.5 ≡
Stephens ✓ R+62.8 R+59.8 9,400 9,304 (99%) R+56.9 +2.2 ≡
Pike ✓ R+73.4 R+70.5 9,431 9,111 (97%) R+69.5 +0.4 ≡
Meriwether ✓ R+25.5 R+22.5 8,908 9,027 (101%) R+20.2 +1.1 ≡
Burke ✓ R+9.3 R+6.4 8,467 8,679 (103%) D+1.3 +7.2 ≡
Franklin ✓ R+72.6 R+69.6 8,739 8,505 (97%) R+67.9 +1.5 ≡
Decatur ✓ R+24.0 R+21.0 8,883 8,494 (96%) R+15.6 +5.2 ≡
McDuffie ✓ R+24.9 R+21.9 8,317 8,270 (99%) R+16.1 +4.7 ≡
Grady ✓ R+38.2 R+35.2 8,341 8,014 (96%) R+30.9 +5.4 ≡
Washington ✓ R+1.9 D+1.1 7,794 7,945 (102%) D+1.7 +0.9 ≡
Lamar ✓ R+45.9 R+42.9 7,755 7,874 (102%) R+38.0 +3.6 ≡
Toombs R+50.7 R+47.7 8,486 7,767 (92%) R+40.9 +5.6 ≡
Rabun R+56.9 R+53.9 8,262 7,745 (94%) R+53.5 +0.8 ≡
Emanuel ✓ R+44.1 R+41.2 7,562 7,328 (97%) R+36.8 +5.0 ≡
Banks ✓ R+78.2 R+75.2 7,326 7,291 (100%) R+72.5 +2.0 ≡
Towns ✓ R+62.3 R+59.3 7,180 7,122 (99%) R+62.7 −2.3 ≡
Elbert ✓ R+43.4 R+40.4 7,324 7,079 (97%) R+33.9 +7.8 ≡
Chattooga R+64.2 R+61.2 7,712 7,075 (92%) R+56.0 +5.8 ≡
Pierce ✓ R+77.5 R+74.5 7,177 7,024 (98%) R+73.9 +0.2 ≡
Jasper ✓ R+58.4 R+55.4 6,574 6,888 (105%) R+53.5 +2.4 ≡
Oglethorpe ✓ R+42.4 R+39.4 6,811 6,834 (100%) R+32.9 +5.9 ≡
Worth R+50.4 R+47.4 7,395 6,798 (92%) R+44.0 +4.6 ≡
Mitchell ✓ R+16.3 R+13.4 7,052 6,721 (95%) R+9.1 +5.7 ≡
Crisp ✓ R+25.9 R+23.0 6,322 6,322 (100%) R+23.0 −1.2 ≡
Dodge R+49.9 R+46.9 6,630 6,266 (95%) R+43.3 +4.1 ≡
Tattnall ✓ R+53.4 R+50.5 6,527 6,244 (96%) R+45.8 +4.8 ≡
Appling R+62.4 R+59.4 6,703 6,194 (92%) R+55.6 +4.8 ≡
Jefferson ✓ R+1.2 D+1.7 6,278 5,995 (95%) D+4.5 +2.5 ≡
Berrien ✓ R+69.8 R+66.8 6,019 5,825 (97%) R+63.2 +3.0 ≡
McIntosh ✓ R+28.6 R+25.6 5,517 5,704 (103%) R+24.2 +1.7 ≡
Brantley R+82.4 R+79.5 5,859 5,498 (94%) R+79.3 +0.3 ≡
Cook ✓ R+46.5 R+43.5 5,557 5,472 (98%) R+36.3 +4.5 ≡
Brooks ✓ R+26.8 R+23.8 5,642 5,455 (97%) R+19.2 +5.7 ≡
Dade R+66.6 R+63.6 5,844 5,383 (92%) R+59.7 +5.2 ≡
Screven ✓ R+25.2 R+22.2 5,313 5,199 (98%) R+18.4 +4.0 ≡
Long ✓ R+29.5 R+26.5 4,426 4,979 (112%) R+8.7 +19.1 ≡
Ben Hill ✓ R+32.0 R+29.1 5,118 4,907 (96%) R+20.5 +7.0 ≡
Crawford ✓ R+49.8 R+46.9 4,835 4,665 (96%) R+43.1 +5.5 ≡
Bleckley ✓ R+55.4 R+52.4 4,805 4,652 (97%) R+51.8 −0.9 ≡
Heard ✓ R+72.1 R+69.1 4,463 4,432 (99%) R+66.7 +2.6 ≡
Jeff Davis R+68.3 R+65.3 4,543 4,168 (92%) R+58.3 +6.6 ≡
Wilkes ✓ R+16.8 R+13.9 4,148 4,095 (99%) R+9.5 +4.7 ≡
Lincoln ✓ R+44.8 R+41.8 3,982 3,861 (97%) R+41.1 −0.9 ≡
Macon ✓ D+17.9 D+20.9 3,778 3,746 (99%) D+22.1 −1.4 ≡
Wilkinson R+17.8 R+14.9 4,056 3,714 (92%) R+9.0 +8.3 ≡
Early R+11.5 R+8.5 3,908 3,585 (92%) R+7.2 −0.3 ≡
Bacon R+73.2 R+70.2 3,721 3,521 (95%) R+68.5 −1.0 ≡
Terrell D+4.1 D+7.1 3,656 3,445 (94%) D+7.1 +0.7 ≡
Hancock ✓ D+35.4 D+38.3 3,402 3,409 (100%) D+37.8 −0.1 ≡
Candler ✓ R+47.5 R+44.5 3,562 3,396 (95%) R+37.5 +4.5 ≡
Twiggs ✓ R+14.7 R+11.7 3,540 3,366 (95%) R+3.3 +9.8 ≡
Pulaski ✓ R+40.5 R+37.5 3,374 3,341 (99%) R+38.6 −4.2 ≡
Dooly ✓ R+7.7 R+4.7 3,286 3,308 (101%) R+4.6 −0.6 ≡
Irwin ✓ R+54.2 R+51.2 3,418 3,290 (96%) R+52.0 −1.6 ≡
Charlton R+56.2 R+53.2 3,405 3,223 (95%) R+50.1 +3.8 ≡
Telfair R+39.3 R+36.3 3,413 3,167 (93%) R+33.4 +2.7 ≡
Evans R+42.3 R+39.4 3,361 3,119 (93%) R+37.2 +1.1 ≡
Johnson R+46.4 R+43.4 3,383 3,054 (90%) R+42.4 +1.4 ≡
Taylor R+31.0 R+28.0 3,216 2,997 (93%) R+25.5 −0.9 ≡
Turner ✓ R+28.5 R+25.5 3,099 2,974 (96%) R+18.8 +5.7 ≡
Montgomery R+53.0 R+50.0 3,226 2,970 (92%) R+45.8 +4.7 ≡
Seminole R+40.4 R+37.5 3,045 2,892 (95%) R+35.1 +1.9 ≡
Marion ✓ R+30.2 R+27.3 2,846 2,771 (97%) R+22.3 +7.4 ≡
Talbot ✓ D+12.0 D+15.0 2,864 2,729 (95%) D+16.1 +2.0 ≡
Lanier ✓ R+46.3 R+43.4 2,638 2,659 (101%) R+38.1 +4.4 ≡
Jenkins R+30.4 R+27.5 2,774 2,519 (91%) R+23.4 +2.3 ≡
Wilcox R+49.2 R+46.2 2,621 2,476 (94%) R+44.6 +0.2 ≡
Randolph D+7.6 D+10.6 2,565 2,360 (92%) D+7.9 −4.1 ≡
Atkinson ✓ R+54.0 R+51.0 2,246 2,240 (100%) R+38.2 +11.3 ≡
Treutlen R+44.4 R+41.4 2,449 2,238 (91%) R+35.7 +4.9 ≡
Warren ✓ D+4.7 D+7.7 2,157 2,093 (97%) D+9.5 +0.1 ≡
Clinch R+51.5 R+48.6 2,114 1,978 (94%) R+47.5 −0.3 ≡
Miller R+50.5 R+47.5 2,164 1,966 (91%) R+49.9 −2.4 *
Wheeler ✓ R+45.1 R+42.1 1,826 1,800 (99%) R+40.7 +1.7 ≡
Schley R+62.5 R+59.5 1,876 1,748 (93%) R+58.9 +0.3 ≡
Calhoun ✓ D+12.3 D+15.3 1,715 1,633 (95%) D+17.1 −0.5 ≡
Stewart D+16.3 D+19.2 1,573 1,439 (91%) D+21.6 +2.5 ≡
Glascock R+83.9 R+80.9 1,305 1,217 (93%) R+83.6 −2.6 *
Baker R+19.9 R+16.9 1,258 1,140 (91%) R+16.5 +2.8 ≡
Clay ✓ D+7.5 D+10.5 1,126 1,107 (98%) D+11.7 +1.7 ≡
Chattahoochee ✓ R+16.5 R+13.5 1,020 1,087 (107%) R+1.9 +12.1 ≡
Webster R+18.4 R+15.4 1,136 1,054 (93%) R+15.7 −3.1 ≡
Echols R+82.1 R+79.1 1,065 945 (89%) R+72.3 +6.6 ≡
Quitman ✓ R+15.4 R+12.5 906 872 (96%) R+13.5 −3.2 ≡
Taliaferro ✓ D+14.9 D+17.9 807 804 (100%) D+19.4 +0.3 ≡

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read). 1 smaller counties with no votes yet not shown.

South Carolina Senate Annie Andrews v Darline Graham · our forecast R+1.7, 62% Republican · totals only

Counted2,040,928 of ~1,697,100 expected (120%) · 46 of 46 counties
Like-for-like gap5.9 pts better for the Democrat on 2,040,928 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+4.2
Raw (not like for like)D+4.5 counted, R+1.4 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Greenville ✓ R+22.2 R+6.5 176,990 215,533 (122%) D+2.2 +8.7
Charleston ✓ D+5.7 D+21.4 152,799 175,121 (115%) D+26.1 +4.7
Horry ✓ R+38.5 R+22.8 133,493 164,151 (123%) R+21.5 +1.3
Richland ✓ D+34.6 D+50.3 127,016 161,725 (127%) D+53.2 +2.9
Spartanburg ✓ R+33.6 R+17.9 96,625 119,644 (124%) R+4.7 +13.2
York ✓ R+19.1 R+3.4 95,325 116,035 (122%) D+3.5 +6.9
Lexington ✓ R+33.5 R+17.7 99,171 115,893 (117%) R+7.7 +10.0
Berkeley ✓ R+16.3 R+0.6 71,374 90,990 (127%) D+9.4 +10.0
Beaufort ✓ R+14.5 D+1.2 71,283 86,168 (121%) R+2.7 −4.0
Anderson ✓ R+47.4 R+31.6 63,047 73,906 (117%) R+23.4 +8.2
Aiken ✓ R+25.9 R+10.2 54,663 67,826 (124%) R+4.5 +5.7
Dorchester ✓ R+14.6 D+1.1 49,782 62,281 (125%) D+9.6 +8.4
Florence ✓ R+8.0 D+7.7 41,414 48,963 (118%) D+14.7 +7.0
Pickens ✓ R+52.7 R+37.0 39,941 44,795 (112%) R+29.3 +7.7
Lancaster ✓ R+24.8 R+9.0 34,412 42,803 (124%) R+5.3 +3.8
Sumter ✓ D+4.9 D+20.6 30,651 36,466 (119%) D+26.9 +6.3
Oconee ✓ R+51.5 R+35.8 28,903 32,493 (112%) R+31.8 +4.0
Georgetown ✓ R+19.5 R+3.8 27,487 30,967 (113%) R+3.8 −0.0
Orangeburg ✓ D+24.6 D+40.3 26,176 30,882 (118%) D+43.9 +3.6
Kershaw ✓ R+28.2 R+12.5 22,386 25,905 (116%) R+1.1 +11.4
Greenwood ✓ R+29.0 R+13.3 21,657 24,618 (114%) R+5.2 +8.1
Darlington ✓ R+13.3 D+2.4 20,028 23,558 (118%) D+9.7 +7.3
Laurens ✓ R+40.8 R+25.1 19,735 23,410 (119%) R+16.3 +8.9
Cherokee ✓ R+51.4 R+35.6 16,071 17,648 (110%) R+28.8 +6.9
Jasper ✓ R+9.6 D+6.1 11,118 17,426 (157%) D+2.0 −4.0
Newberry ✓ R+34.3 R+18.6 12,821 14,398 (112%) R+12.1 +6.5
Chesterfield ✓ R+28.1 R+12.4 12,555 13,822 (110%) R+5.4 +6.9
Colleton ✓ R+18.2 R+2.5 12,544 13,717 (109%) D+4.3 +6.7
Clarendon ✓ R+12.3 D+3.5 11,424 13,599 (119%) D+5.6 +2.1
Chester ✓ R+17.2 R+1.5 9,583 12,049 (126%) D+6.2 +7.7
Williamsburg ✓ D+21.7 D+37.4 9,780 11,700 (120%) D+38.8 +1.4
Marion ✓ D+10.5 D+26.2 8,386 11,263 (134%) D+27.1 +0.8
Edgefield ✓ R+31.8 R+16.1 8,787 10,821 (123%) R+12.7 +3.4
Fairfield ✓ D+13.2 D+29.0 8,404 9,678 (115%) D+28.0 −0.9
Union ✓ R+32.7 R+17.0 8,611 9,420 (109%) R+11.3 +5.7
Abbeville ✓ R+42.4 R+26.7 8,592 9,026 (105%) R+21.6 +5.1
Dillon ✓ R+10.8 D+4.9 7,898 8,820 (112%) D+9.9 +5.1
Barnwell ✓ R+15.5 D+0.2 6,253 7,675 (123%) D+3.8 +3.6
Marlboro ✓ D+2.4 D+18.1 6,524 7,221 (111%) D+23.4 +5.3
Saluda ✓ R+44.4 R+28.6 6,556 7,023 (107%) R+23.8 +4.8
Hampton ✓ D+6.4 D+22.1 5,622 6,657 (118%) D+18.7 −3.4
Lee ✓ D+17.7 D+33.4 5,253 6,329 (120%) D+36.5 +3.1
Calhoun ✓ R+14.3 D+1.4 5,608 5,893 (105%) D+7.1 +5.7
McCormick ✓ R+17.1 R+1.4 4,553 5,470 (120%) R+5.7 −4.3
Bamberg ✓ D+15.3 D+31.0 3,980 4,633 (116%) D+32.3 +1.3
Allendale ✓ D+44.7 D+60.4 1,819 2,507 (138%) D+56.6 −3.8

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Texas governor Gina Hinojosa v Greg Abbott · our forecast R+2.4, 63% Republican · totals only

Counted9,905,493 of ~8,078,178 expected (123%) · 254 of 254 counties
Like-for-like gap8.4 pts better for the Democrat on 9,885,047 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+6.0
Raw (not like for like)D+7.1 counted, R+1.3 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Harris ✓ D+5.5 D+16.6 1,097,892 1,383,128 (126%) D+28.6 +12.0
Dallas ✓ D+22.1 D+33.2 623,883 784,122 (126%) D+39.3 +6.1
Tarrant ✓ R+5.1 D+5.9 589,567 729,141 (124%) D+14.2 +8.3
Bexar ✓ D+9.7 D+20.8 538,522 659,522 (122%) D+31.0 +10.2
Travis ✓ D+39.1 D+50.2 461,264 548,591 (119%) D+52.5 +2.3
Collin ✓ R+11.1 R+0.1 364,138 458,423 (126%) D+4.5 +4.5
Denton ✓ R+13.2 R+2.1 317,007 396,672 (125%) D+2.1 +4.2
Fort Bend ✓ D+1.6 D+12.6 249,051 331,449 (133%) D+22.6 +10.0
Williamson ✓ R+2.4 D+8.6 225,064 279,139 (124%) D+13.7 +5.1
Montgomery ✓ R+45.5 R+34.5 207,554 258,819 (125%) R+26.7 +7.8
El Paso ✓ D+15.1 D+26.1 164,311 220,257 (134%) D+42.2 +16.0
Hidalgo ✓ R+2.9 D+8.2 140,343 203,361 (145%) D+42.0 +33.9
Brazoria ✓ R+19.7 R+8.7 109,618 141,901 (129%) D+1.7 +10.4
Galveston ✓ R+27.4 R+16.4 110,374 134,628 (122%) R+9.7 +6.7
Hays ✓ D+5.6 D+16.7 89,376 119,950 (134%) D+26.9 +10.3
Bell ✓ R+16.2 R+5.2 87,631 110,831 (126%) R+0.6 +4.6
Lubbock ✓ R+39.6 R+28.5 83,560 104,417 (125%) R+20.5 +8.1
Cameron ✓ R+5.8 D+5.2 76,574 102,690 (134%) D+34.6 +29.3
Nueces ✓ R+11.5 R+0.5 88,881 100,020 (113%) D+6.8 +7.3
Comal ✓ R+45.6 R+34.5 74,602 89,286 (120%) R+33.5 +1.0
Smith ✓ R+45.0 R+34.0 76,067 89,181 (117%) R+29.0 +5.0
Ellis ✓ R+31.0 R+20.0 67,630 88,686 (131%) R+8.3 +11.7
McLennan ✓ R+30.9 R+19.9 72,406 83,426 (115%) R+14.1 +5.7
Brazos ✓ R+24.9 R+13.8 59,810 79,997 (134%) D+0.7 +14.6
Parker ✓ R+66.5 R+55.4 63,355 76,264 (120%) R+54.0 +1.5
Jefferson ✓ R+8.9 D+2.2 62,174 72,970 (117%) D+9.1 +6.9
Guadalupe ✓ R+29.5 R+18.4 57,027 71,208 (125%) R+10.0 +8.4
Johnson ✓ R+51.4 R+40.3 55,757 70,039 (126%) R+30.7 +9.7
Kaufman ✓ R+27.8 R+16.8 42,702 62,342 (146%) R+2.5 +14.3
Webb ✓ R+2.1 D+8.9 43,936 58,766 (134%) D+39.6 +30.7
Grayson ✓ R+54.2 R+43.2 44,926 53,887 (120%) R+41.4 +1.8
Rockwall ✓ R+40.8 R+29.7 42,790 53,642 (125%) R+26.5 +3.3
Randall ✓ R+60.4 R+49.4 47,934 53,396 (111%) R+45.2 +4.2
Midland ✓ R+60.4 R+49.4 39,957 44,161 (111%) R+41.7 +7.7
Taylor ✓ R+49.8 R+38.8 39,292 42,729 (109%) R+34.8 +4.0
Gregg ✓ R+42.3 R+31.2 33,139 38,102 (115%) R+24.1 +7.2
Hunt ✓ R+55.6 R+44.5 30,484 37,612 (123%) R+37.6 +6.9
Bastrop ✓ R+18.3 R+7.3 29,123 37,093 (127%) D+5.4 +12.7
Tom Green ✓ R+48.1 R+37.0 31,742 36,245 (114%) R+30.7 +6.3
Wichita ✓ R+44.0 R+33.0 31,518 34,560 (110%) R+28.8 +4.2
Henderson ✓ R+63.5 R+52.4 27,966 31,211 (112%) R+50.2 +2.2
Wise ✓ R+70.1 R+59.1 25,769 31,032 (120%) R+55.1 +4.0
Hood ✓ R+66.1 R+55.1 27,196 30,330 (112%) R+55.6 −0.5
Ector ✓ R+52.9 R+41.8 25,374 29,505 (116%) R+22.9 +19.0
Victoria ✓ R+42.6 R+31.5 25,176 28,311 (112%) R+27.3 +4.3
Bowie ✓ R+48.7 R+37.6 26,496 27,719 (105%) R+35.7 +2.0
Angelina ✓ R+52.0 R+41.0 24,509 27,412 (112%) R+34.4 +6.6
Orange ✓ R+66.7 R+55.7 25,060 26,444 (106%) R+53.3 +2.5
Kendall ✓ R+55.8 R+44.7 22,460 26,159 (116%) R+47.8 −3.0
Potter ✓ R+44.5 R+33.4 21,719 25,807 (119%) R+23.8 +9.6
Liberty ✓ R+61.7 R+50.6 19,734 25,515 (129%) R+30.4 +20.2
Burnet ✓ R+55.8 R+44.7 21,068 24,362 (116%) R+43.7 +1.1
Harrison ✓ R+50.6 R+39.6 21,303 24,108 (113%) R+37.7 +1.9
Waller ✓ R+25.1 R+14.0 16,664 23,748 (143%) R+5.5 +8.5
Kerr ✓ R+54.4 R+43.4 22,427 23,507 (105%) R+43.2 +0.1
Van Zandt ✓ R+74.9 R+63.9 20,533 22,236 (108%) R+63.3 +0.5
Wilson ✓ R+53.7 R+42.7 19,415 22,049 (114%) R+40.2 +2.4
Walker ✓ R+40.0 R+29.0 17,342 21,697 (125%) R+22.8 +6.2
Nacogdoches ✓ R+38.8 R+27.8 18,926 21,569 (114%) R+17.0 +10.8
Medina ✓ R+42.8 R+31.7 17,312 21,246 (123%) R+25.4 +6.3
Hardin ✓ R+75.9 R+64.9 19,594 20,986 (107%) R+64.2 +0.6
San Patricio ✓ R+36.5 R+25.4 17,818 20,155 (113%) R+17.1 +8.3
Wood ✓ R+69.8 R+58.8 18,150 19,826 (109%) R+62.9 −4.1
Chambers ✓ R+65.7 R+54.7 15,682 19,472 (124%) R+48.3 +6.3
Coryell ✓ R+40.7 R+29.6 16,312 18,861 (116%) R+24.9 +4.7
Polk ✓ R+59.0 R+47.9 16,743 17,546 (105%) R+49.1 −1.1
Rusk ✓ R+59.4 R+48.4 15,572 17,406 (112%) R+43.2 +5.3
Cooke ✓ R+66.9 R+55.9 15,293 17,218 (113%) R+54.4 +1.5
Cherokee ✓ R+62.8 R+51.7 14,444 16,631 (115%) R+47.4 +4.4
Lamar ✓ R+61.0 R+50.0 15,344 16,438 (107%) R+47.0 +3.0
Navarro ✓ R+51.8 R+40.8 14,099 16,165 (115%) R+32.2 +8.5
Washington ✓ R+54.6 R+43.6 13,949 15,536 (111%) R+45.0 −1.4
Upshur ✓ R+71.1 R+60.1 14,254 15,531 (109%) R+59.1 +1.0
Anderson ✓ R+61.8 R+50.8 14,415 15,344 (106%) R+48.0 +2.7
Caldwell ✓ R+14.4 R+3.4 11,288 14,831 (131%) D+11.4 +14.8
Gillespie ✓ R+61.0 R+49.9 13,366 14,634 (109%) R+52.0 −2.0
Atascosa ✓ R+43.3 R+32.3 12,634 14,588 (115%) R+19.3 +13.0
Erath ✓ R+67.9 R+56.9 13,077 14,167 (108%) R+49.3 +7.6
Starr ✓ R+16.0 R+5.0 10,986 13,625 (124%) D+48.9 +53.8
Hopkins ✓ R+64.7 R+53.6 12,324 13,327 (108%) R+49.1 +4.5
Hill ✓ R+64.4 R+53.4 11,361 13,168 (116%) R+49.5 +3.9
Fannin ✓ R+67.4 R+56.4 11,597 12,990 (112%) R+55.2 +1.3
Brown ✓ R+74.0 R+63.0 12,254 12,989 (106%) R+63.4 −0.4
Maverick ✓ R+18.5 R+7.5 9,483 12,934 (136%) D+35.1 +42.6
Austin ✓ R+62.6 R+51.6 11,195 12,858 (115%) R+49.1 +2.5
Wharton ✓ R+51.9 R+40.8 12,129 12,635 (104%) R+37.2 +3.6
Jasper ✓ R+66.6 R+55.6 11,370 12,095 (106%) R+56.0 −0.5
Val Verde ✓ R+26.6 R+15.6 9,417 11,786 (125%) D+3.9 +19.5
Grimes ✓ R+60.3 R+49.3 9,413 11,733 (125%) R+46.7 +2.6
Llano ✓ R+60.9 R+49.9 11,021 11,696 (106%) R+55.7 −5.8
Fayette ✓ R+61.3 R+50.3 10,486 11,270 (107%) R+50.0 +0.3
Matagorda ✓ R+50.6 R+39.6 9,695 10,945 (113%) R+32.4 +7.2
Cass ✓ R+65.8 R+54.7 9,951 10,873 (109%) R+58.3 −3.6
Jim Wells ✓ R+15.5 R+4.5 9,496 10,727 (113%) D+10.0 +14.5
Aransas ✓ R+55.8 R+44.7 9,608 10,627 (111%) R+47.9 −3.1
San Jacinto ✓ R+65.4 R+54.3 9,522 10,405 (109%) R+53.2 +1.2
Palo Pinto ✓ R+67.2 R+56.2 9,467 10,402 (110%) R+49.4 +6.8
Bandera ✓ R+61.9 R+50.9 10,456 10,246 (98%) R+56.2 −5.3
Lampasas ✓ R+59.5 R+48.5 8,214 9,201 (112%) R+49.6 −1.1
Titus ✓ R+54.7 R+43.7 7,308 8,756 (120%) R+28.0 +15.6
Montague ✓ R+77.8 R+66.7 7,840 8,683 (111%) R+69.5 −2.8
Milam ✓ R+57.4 R+46.4 8,340 8,643 (104%) R+43.9 +2.5
Lavaca ✓ R+76.1 R+65.1 8,195 8,616 (105%) R+67.9 −2.8
Panola ✓ R+66.5 R+55.5 8,298 8,580 (103%) R+55.3 +0.1
Uvalde ✓ R+33.4 R+22.4 7,908 8,403 (106%) R+7.0 +15.4
Colorado ✓ R+57.2 R+46.1 7,533 8,382 (111%) R+46.4 −0.3
Kleberg ✓ R+12.7 R+1.6 7,592 8,224 (108%) D+9.7 +11.3
Burleson ✓ R+62.9 R+51.9 6,702 7,813 (117%) R+52.8 −0.9
Bosque ✓ R+67.3 R+56.3 7,443 7,759 (104%) R+57.5 −1.2
Blanco ✓ R+52.4 R+41.4 6,757 7,599 (112%) R+45.7 −4.3
Hale ✓ R+58.0 R+47.0 6,316 7,561 (120%) R+33.3 +13.7
Shelby ✓ R+64.7 R+53.6 6,923 7,519 (109%) R+50.2 +3.4
Houston ✓ R+55.4 R+44.3 7,172 7,484 (104%) R+48.9 −4.6
Freestone ✓ R+66.4 R+55.4 6,647 7,337 (110%) R+52.4 +3.1
Limestone ✓ R+56.8 R+45.8 6,822 7,283 (107%) R+40.5 +5.3
Tyler ✓ R+73.5 R+62.5 7,228 7,260 (100%) R+66.1 −3.6
Bee ✓ R+39.9 R+28.9 6,380 7,160 (112%) R+17.5 +11.4
Leon ✓ R+76.8 R+65.8 6,837 7,086 (104%) R+68.0 −2.2
Howard ✓ R+62.9 R+51.8 6,530 7,075 (108%) R+44.5 +7.4
Robertson ✓ R+52.1 R+41.1 5,998 7,020 (117%) R+37.7 +3.3
Lee ✓ R+60.4 R+49.4 6,266 6,954 (111%) R+46.5 +2.9
Gonzales ✓ R+54.8 R+43.8 5,539 6,697 (121%) R+34.3 +9.4
Young ✓ R+76.3 R+65.3 6,184 6,599 (107%) R+63.9 +1.4
Hockley ✓ R+66.4 R+55.3 5,520 6,454 (117%) R+47.1 +8.2
Calhoun ✓ R+52.2 R+41.2 5,574 6,357 (114%) R+34.4 +6.8
Eastland ✓ R+77.7 R+66.7 6,143 6,353 (103%) R+64.9 +1.8
Dewitt ✓ R+67.1 R+56.1 6,052 6,263 (103%) R+57.0 −0.9
Hutchinson ✓ R+77.3 R+66.2 6,053 6,086 (101%) R+64.1 +2.1
Trinity ✓ R+67.1 R+56.1 5,332 5,771 (108%) R+56.7 −0.6
Gray ✓ R+77.2 R+66.2 5,539 5,511 (99%) R+62.3 +3.9
Callahan ✓ R+77.7 R+66.6 5,251 5,392 (103%) R+67.2 −0.6
Jones ✓ R+73.1 R+62.1 4,983 5,243 (105%) R+59.1 +3.0
Comanche ✓ R+74.1 R+63.1 4,820 5,151 (107%) R+59.8 +3.3
Rains ✓ R+73.0 R+62.0 4,976 5,094 (102%) R+64.4 −2.5
Jackson ✓ R+70.8 R+59.8 4,590 5,038 (110%) R+57.4 +2.4
Falls ✓ R+44.8 R+33.7 4,694 4,945 (105%) R+32.7 +1.0
Gaines ✓ R+82.8 R+71.7 4,105 4,808 (117%) R+65.2 +6.5
Willacy ✓ R+3.3 D+7.7 3,826 4,673 (122%) D+28.4 +20.7
Clay ✓ R+79.6 R+68.6 4,481 4,647 (104%) R+70.2 −1.6
Somervell ✓ R+70.6 R+59.5 4,032 4,317 (107%) R+60.3 −0.8
Newton ✓ R+66.7 R+55.6 4,365 4,294 (98%) R+58.6 −3.0
Madison ✓ R+64.5 R+53.4 3,903 4,292 (110%) R+51.6 +1.9
Camp ✓ R+53.6 R+42.5 3,973 4,289 (108%) R+37.4 +5.2
Sabine ✓ R+78.6 R+67.6 4,161 4,277 (103%) R+71.9 −4.3
Franklin ✓ R+69.0 R+58.0 3,910 4,270 (109%) R+59.6 −1.7
Red River ✓ R+61.8 R+50.8 4,266 4,239 (99%) R+48.5 +2.3
Morris ✓ R+51.1 R+40.1 3,984 4,220 (106%) R+40.3 −0.2
Scurry ✓ R+73.6 R+62.5 4,116 4,191 (102%) R+60.6 +1.9
Andrews ✓ R+72.7 R+61.7 3,810 4,170 (109%) R+47.1 +14.6
Moore ✓ R+67.2 R+56.2 3,589 4,131 (115%) R+34.0 +22.2
Karnes ✓ R+58.2 R+47.2 3,808 4,050 (106%) R+41.9 +5.3
Archer ✓ R+79.5 R+68.4 3,845 4,009 (104%) R+71.1 −2.7
Live Oak ✓ R+69.7 R+58.7 3,993 3,868 (97%) R+60.8 −2.1
Frio ✓ R+24.6 R+13.5 3,694 3,843 (104%) D+4.9 +18.5
Marion ✓ R+52.6 R+41.6 3,292 3,830 (116%) R+45.1 −3.5
Brewster ✓ R+12.6 R+1.6 3,745 3,820 (102%) D+8.0 +9.6
Nolan ✓ R+59.2 R+48.2 3,783 3,745 (99%) R+44.5 +3.7
Hamilton ✓ R+71.2 R+60.1 3,471 3,575 (103%) R+63.4 −3.3
Deaf Smith ✓ R+51.7 R+40.7 2,931 3,544 (121%) R+19.2 +21.5
Jack ✓ R+82.4 R+71.3 2,990 3,422 (114%) R+68.9 +2.5
Wilbarger ✓ R+60.7 R+49.6 3,144 3,398 (108%) R+47.2 +2.4
Pecos R+44.9 R+33.9 3,645 3,393 (93%) R+16.2 +17.7 *
Goliad ✓ R+60.2 R+49.2 3,357 3,377 (101%) R+49.1 +0.1
Zapata ✓ R+22.5 R+11.4 3,421 3,354 (98%) D+31.6 +43.1
Duval R+10.0 D+1.1 3,637 3,340 (92%) D+28.2 +27.2 *
Lamb ✓ R+64.4 R+53.4 3,069 3,300 (108%) R+47.3 +6.1
Coleman ✓ R+79.0 R+67.9 3,230 3,248 (101%) R+72.2 −4.3
Runnels ✓ R+77.2 R+66.2 3,230 3,193 (99%) R+66.3 −0.1
Reeves ✓ R+36.9 R+25.9 2,158 3,148 (146%) R+3.8 +22.0
Zavala ✓ D+14.5 D+25.5 2,426 3,121 (129%) D+46.0 +20.5
San Augustine ✓ R+56.3 R+45.3 2,861 3,094 (108%) R+44.1 +1.2
Stephens ✓ R+79.3 R+68.3 2,745 2,810 (102%) R+65.7 +2.6
Dimmit ✓ D+3.0 D+14.0 2,855 2,714 (95%) D+35.4 +21.3
McCulloch ✓ R+73.5 R+62.5 2,556 2,675 (105%) R+62.1 +0.4
Terry ✓ R+65.1 R+54.1 2,571 2,631 (102%) R+46.2 +7.9
Dawson ✓ R+61.1 R+50.1 2,507 2,578 (103%) R+45.0 +5.0
Ward ✓ R+66.2 R+55.1 2,510 2,567 (102%) R+45.3 +9.9
Refugio ✓ R+39.6 R+28.5 2,310 2,426 (105%) R+27.9 +0.7
Carson ✓ R+81.2 R+70.2 2,391 2,397 (100%) R+69.9 +0.2
Ochiltree ✓ R+81.6 R+70.6 2,121 2,336 (110%) R+54.6 +16.0
San Saba ✓ R+78.9 R+67.9 2,163 2,193 (101%) R+66.3 +1.6
Mason ✓ R+65.0 R+54.0 2,057 2,166 (105%) R+56.1 −2.1
Mills ✓ R+77.0 R+66.0 2,115 2,144 (101%) R+67.7 −1.7
Lynn ✓ R+70.4 R+59.4 1,717 2,124 (124%) R+56.8 +2.6
Delta ✓ R+69.8 R+58.8 2,020 2,015 (100%) R+58.1 +0.7
Parmer ✓ R+70.2 R+59.1 1,758 1,983 (113%) R+46.6 +12.5
Kimble ✓ R+77.7 R+66.6 1,870 1,976 (106%) R+67.8 −1.1
Presidio ✓ D+30.3 D+41.3 1,708 1,929 (113%) D+53.9 +12.6
La Salle ✓ R+20.5 R+9.5 1,428 1,907 (134%) D+5.9 +15.4
Mitchell ✓ R+71.4 R+60.4 1,776 1,869 (105%) R+62.6 −2.2
Brooks D+9.6 D+20.7 1,998 1,825 (91%) D+34.2 +13.5 *
Yoakum ✓ R+70.9 R+59.9 1,631 1,780 (109%) R+41.7 +18.2
Swisher ✓ R+63.4 R+52.4 1,656 1,718 (104%) R+48.7 +3.7
Childress ✓ R+76.1 R+65.1 1,744 1,697 (97%) R+61.2 +3.8
Wheeler ✓ R+84.7 R+73.7 1,685 1,688 (100%) R+71.4 +2.3
Floyd ✓ R+65.0 R+54.0 1,464 1,637 (112%) R+44.4 +9.6
Haskell ✓ R+71.6 R+60.5 1,665 1,626 (98%) R+60.6 −0.1
Castro ✓ R+58.2 R+47.2 1,482 1,550 (105%) R+43.0 +4.2
Hartley ✓ R+83.5 R+72.4 1,571 1,546 (98%) R+70.2 +2.2
Hansford ✓ R+85.0 R+73.9 1,517 1,508 (99%) R+64.7 +9.2
Real ✓ R+66.9 R+55.9 1,564 1,500 (96%) R+60.9 −5.0
Crosby ✓ R+51.4 R+40.4 1,251 1,492 (119%) R+32.2 +8.1
Martin ✓ R+75.8 R+64.7 1,502 1,475 (98%) R+58.8 +5.9
Bailey ✓ R+61.2 R+50.1 1,327 1,422 (107%) R+38.3 +11.9
Fisher ✓ R+63.2 R+52.2 1,396 1,421 (102%) R+54.3 −2.2
Jim Hogg D+8.3 D+19.3 1,532 1,372 (90%) D+44.8 +25.5 *
Coke ✓ R+79.7 R+68.7 1,385 1,354 (98%) R+69.6 −0.9
Winkler ✓ R+70.6 R+59.6 1,317 1,347 (102%) R+44.9 +14.7
Shackelford ✓ R+82.2 R+71.2 1,237 1,286 (104%) R+74.7 −3.5
Donley ✓ R+78.2 R+67.2 1,188 1,277 (107%) R+70.8 −3.6
Kinney ✓ R+50.5 R+39.5 1,183 1,250 (106%) R+32.5 +7.0
Hemphill R+75.8 R+64.8 1,356 1,246 (92%) R+56.8 +8.0 *
Baylor R+77.0 R+66.0 1,305 1,208 (93%) R+68.4 −2.4 *
Garza ✓ R+72.6 R+61.5 1,199 1,164 (97%) R+57.0 +4.6
Sutton ✓ R+67.1 R+56.1 1,156 1,101 (95%) R+51.0 +5.0
Dallam ✓ R+78.4 R+67.4 1,045 1,024 (98%) R+52.8 +14.5
Jeff Davis ✓ R+21.3 R+10.3 1,046 1,022 (98%) R+10.3 +0.0
Crane R+72.7 R+61.7 1,141 1,013 (89%) R+45.7 +16.0 *
Knox ✓ R+68.6 R+57.5 1,034 1,009 (98%) R+51.3 +6.2
Concho ✓ R+74.0 R+63.0 939 1,000 (106%) R+61.6 +1.4
Crockett R+53.9 R+42.8 1,259 1,000 (79%) R+33.9 +8.9 *
Hardeman ✓ R+72.8 R+61.8 983 977 (99%) R+61.0 +0.8
Collingsworth ✓ R+77.6 R+66.6 925 965 (104%) R+68.9 −2.3
Lipscomb ✓ R+79.7 R+68.7 975 935 (96%) R+70.4 −1.7
Schleicher R+64.6 R+53.5 1,001 923 (92%) R+47.3 +6.2 *
Culberson ✓ R+16.9 R+5.9 725 891 (123%) D+16.0 +21.9
Armstrong ✓ R+85.6 R+74.6 900 873 (97%) R+77.7 −3.1
Upton R+77.1 R+66.1 1,042 871 (84%) R+56.3 +9.8 *
Hall R+73.4 R+62.4 876 830 (95%) R+60.7 +1.7 *
Edwards ✓ R+73.3 R+62.3 814 815 (100%) R+61.1 +1.2
Hudspeth R+46.1 R+35.1 860 812 (94%) R+20.6 +14.5 *
Menard ✓ R+66.5 R+55.5 774 790 (102%) R+53.7 +1.8
Dickens ✓ R+70.4 R+59.3 790 753 (95%) R+62.4 −3.1
Oldham ✓ R+84.4 R+73.3 767 748 (98%) R+73.5 −0.2
Sherman ✓ R+83.3 R+72.2 707 710 (100%) R+62.8 +9.4
Cochran ✓ R+65.8 R+54.8 614 701 (114%) R+40.4 +14.4
Reagan ✓ R+69.5 R+58.5 710 700 (99%) R+40.4 +18.1
Irion R+75.7 R+64.6 695 645 (93%) R+69.1 −4.5 *
Throckmorton R+83.4 R+72.4 667 627 (94%) R+70.5 +1.9 *
Briscoe ✓ R+79.8 R+68.8 590 597 (101%) R+69.8 −1.0
Glasscock ✓ R+88.4 R+77.3 571 559 (98%) R+80.9 −3.5
Cottle ✓ R+72.6 R+61.5 514 542 (105%) R+62.5 −1.0
Stonewall R+69.5 R+58.5 564 515 (91%) R+59.0 −0.5 *
Motley ✓ R+88.9 R+77.9 505 513 (102%) R+83.2 −5.4
Roberts ✓ R+92.3 R+81.3 443 455 (103%) R+89.2 −8.0
Sterling ✓ R+86.0 R+75.0 446 451 (101%) R+66.7 +8.2
Foard R+65.4 R+54.4 527 411 (78%) R+56.7 −2.3 *
McMullen ✓ R+84.6 R+73.5 372 381 (102%) R+70.9 +2.7
Kent ✓ R+76.4 R+65.4 348 377 (108%) R+62.3 +3.0
Terrell R+55.2 R+44.2 426 347 (81%) R+46.7 −2.5 *
Borden ✓ R+91.7 R+80.7 317 308 (97%) R+87.7 −7.0
Kenedy ✓ R+46.8 R+35.8 152 159 (105%) R+17.6 +18.2
King ✓ R+91.1 R+80.1 103 118 (115%) R+86.4 −6.4
Loving R+78.4 R+67.3 77 68 (88%) R+69.1 −1.8 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Iowa Senate Josh Turek v Ashley Hinson · our forecast D+2.4, 64% Democrat · count split by method

No votes counted yet. The benchmarks below are what each county should show if our forecast of D+2.4 is right; once votes come in, each method is compared with the same method in 2024.

County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Polk D+10.8 D+26.4 190,822 – – –
Linn D+9.9 D+25.4 93,559 – – –
Scott R+3.9 D+11.7 63,707 – – –
Johnson D+37.8 D+53.4 63,661 – – –
Black Hawk D+1.2 D+16.7 47,169 – – –
Dallas R+4.7 D+10.8 44,572 – – –
Dubuque R+8.6 D+7.0 38,808 – – –
Story D+10.3 D+25.8 36,942 – – –
Pottawattamie R+19.9 R+4.4 29,060 – – –
Woodbury R+22.9 R+7.3 28,626 – – –
Warren R+20.6 R+5.1 23,818 – – –
Cerro Gordo R+11.6 D+3.9 17,092 – – –
Clinton R+18.8 R+3.3 16,887 – – –
Jasper R+27.5 R+12.0 15,008 – – –
Marion R+37.6 R+22.1 14,358 – – –

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read). 84 smaller counties with no votes yet not shown.

Florida governor David Jolly v Byron Donalds · our forecast R+2.9, 68% Republican · totals only

Counted8,266,794 of ~7,796,916 expected (106%) · 67 of 67 counties
Like-for-like gap1.1 pts better for the Democrat on 8,180,358 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+1.7
Raw (not like for like)R+1.3 counted, R+2.4 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Miami-Dade ✓ R+11.5 R+0.9 716,322 785,055 (110%) D+7.0 +8.0
Broward ✓ D+17.0 D+27.5 600,976 661,359 (110%) D+32.1 +4.6
Palm Beach ✓ D+0.8 D+11.3 545,550 572,058 (105%) D+12.3 +1.0
Hillsborough ✓ R+3.1 D+7.5 484,916 516,277 (106%) D+11.6 +4.2
Orange ✓ D+13.6 D+24.1 408,617 471,241 (115%) D+29.5 +5.4
Pinellas ✓ R+5.2 D+5.3 424,549 403,433 (95%) D+4.6 −0.7
Duval ✓ R+1.5 D+9.0 330,303 355,356 (108%) D+10.8 +1.7
Lee ✓ R+28.4 R+17.9 276,081 303,772 (110%) R+21.5 −3.6
Brevard ✓ R+20.8 R+10.3 268,335 269,326 (100%) R+11.1 −0.8
Polk ✓ R+20.7 R+10.2 230,726 256,942 (111%) R+5.0 +5.2
Pasco ✓ R+25.2 R+14.7 225,549 239,492 (106%) R+12.2 +2.5
Volusia ✓ R+21.8 R+11.3 226,962 236,391 (104%) R+12.5 −1.2
Sarasota ✓ R+18.2 R+7.7 219,514 223,249 (102%) R+13.0 −5.3
Seminole ✓ R+3.6 D+7.0 183,816 195,283 (106%) D+9.6 +2.6
Manatee ✓ R+23.5 R+13.0 172,183 181,989 (106%) R+16.5 −3.5
Lake ✓ R+24.7 R+14.2 160,572 177,629 (111%) R+15.7 −1.6
Collier ✓ R+33.0 R+22.5 164,265 171,748 (105%) R+27.3 −4.8
Marion ✓ R+31.7 R+21.2 156,427 163,507 (105%) R+24.2 −3.0
St. Johns ✓ R+31.3 R+20.8 145,011 155,851 (107%) R+23.6 −2.8
St. Lucie ✓ R+9.1 D+1.4 122,361 138,985 (114%) D+3.0 +1.5
Osceola ✓ R+1.5 D+9.1 103,173 131,545 (127%) D+17.8 +8.7
Leon ✓ D+21.7 D+32.2 118,216 125,528 (106%) D+35.1 +2.9
Escambia ✓ R+19.5 R+9.0 116,090 116,144 (100%) R+9.6 −0.6
Alachua ✓ D+20.9 D+31.5 96,195 105,388 (110%) D+33.3 +1.8
Charlotte ✓ R+34.0 R+23.5 92,933 100,373 (108%) R+33.4 −9.9
Sumter ✓ R+37.6 R+27.1 89,668 94,997 (106%) R+39.9 −12.8
Clay ✓ R+39.3 R+28.7 90,333 92,855 (103%) R+29.1 −0.3
Hernando ✓ R+37.1 R+26.6 80,598 79,895 (99%) R+26.9 −0.3
Indian River ✓ R+27.3 R+16.8 77,624 77,389 (100%) R+20.6 −3.8
Okaloosa ✓ R+42.4 R+31.9 81,166 77,338 (95%) R+34.7 −2.9
Martin ✓ R+31.1 R+20.6 77,907 76,147 (98%) R+23.2 −2.7
Citrus ✓ R+45.9 R+35.4 75,985 74,905 (99%) R+40.3 −4.9
Santa Rosa ✓ R+50.9 R+40.4 75,855 74,287 (98%) R+42.6 −2.2
Bay ✓ R+47.3 R+36.8 67,243 70,092 (104%) R+39.6 −2.7
Flagler ✓ R+28.3 R+17.8 58,886 63,831 (108%) R+22.8 −5.0
Nassau ✓ R+46.9 R+36.4 47,891 50,372 (105%) R+39.2 −2.8
Highlands ✓ R+40.8 R+30.3 39,922 39,642 (99%) R+32.7 −2.4
Walton ✓ R+57.8 R+47.3 34,975 35,115 (100%) R+52.7 −5.4
Monroe R+18.3 R+7.8 34,116 32,244 (95%) R+7.5 +0.3 *
Putnam ✓ R+47.9 R+37.4 26,656 26,388 (99%) R+37.7 −0.4
Columbia ✓ R+50.2 R+39.7 23,769 22,885 (96%) R+40.4 −0.7
Levy ✓ R+50.3 R+39.8 17,954 18,057 (101%) R+43.6 −3.8
Gadsden ✓ D+30.7 D+41.2 17,463 17,774 (102%) D+38.7 −2.5
Suwannee ✓ R+61.0 R+50.5 16,400 15,765 (96%) R+52.7 −2.2
Jackson ✓ R+46.1 R+35.6 16,355 15,570 (95%) R+37.5 −1.9
Wakulla ✓ R+44.4 R+33.9 15,113 15,056 (100%) R+31.3 +2.6
Okeechobee ✓ R+53.9 R+43.4 10,934 11,091 (101%) R+38.2 +5.2
Hendry ✓ R+38.4 R+27.9 8,293 10,044 (121%) R+11.9 +15.9
Baker R+73.2 R+62.7 10,736 9,739 (91%) R+65.1 −2.4 *
Bradford R+57.4 R+46.9 10,290 9,640 (94%) R+48.4 −1.6 *
Desoto ✓ R+43.0 R+32.5 8,714 9,062 (104%) R+27.5 +5.0
Washington ✓ R+65.4 R+54.9 9,147 9,004 (98%) R+58.6 −3.6
Gilchrist ✓ R+68.0 R+57.5 7,889 7,746 (98%) R+61.7 −4.2
Madison ✓ R+28.9 R+18.4 7,020 6,965 (99%) R+22.1 −3.7
Jefferson ✓ R+18.6 R+8.1 7,152 6,942 (97%) R+12.4 −4.3
Taylor R+59.7 R+49.2 7,645 6,940 (91%) R+50.5 −1.3 *
Gulf ✓ R+54.2 R+43.7 6,438 6,698 (104%) R+53.7 −10.0
Holmes R+80.4 R+69.9 6,790 6,157 (91%) R+73.3 −3.4 *
Hardee ✓ R+56.4 R+45.9 5,552 6,003 (108%) R+33.8 +12.1
Dixie R+70.5 R+60.0 6,193 5,557 (90%) R+64.7 −4.6 *
Franklin R+43.8 R+33.3 5,465 5,030 (92%) R+35.3 −2.0 *
Calhoun R+67.7 R+57.2 4,868 4,272 (88%) R+59.5 −2.3 *
Union R+68.4 R+57.8 4,567 4,260 (93%) R+60.6 −2.7 *
Hamilton ✓ R+39.0 R+28.5 4,320 4,113 (95%) R+30.3 −1.8
Glades ✓ R+53.3 R+42.7 3,839 3,784 (99%) R+40.6 +2.2
Liberty ✓ R+67.0 R+56.4 2,622 2,625 (100%) R+59.1 −2.7
Lafayette R+76.1 R+65.6 2,921 2,597 (89%) R+66.5 −0.9 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Alaska governor Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins v Dave Bronson · our forecast D+2.8, 69% Democrat · totals only

Counted211,337 of ~243,484 expected (87%) · 40 of 40 counties
Like-for-like gap35.0 pts better for the Democrat on 29,384 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+37.8
Raw (not like for like)D+34.9 counted, D+2.7 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
House District 6 R+16.8 R+0.2 8,623 7,777 (90%) D+37.4 +37.6 *
House District 9 D+2.3 D+19.0 8,587 7,548 (88%) D+36.8 +17.8 *
House District 25 ✓ R+37.0 R+20.3 7,560 7,453 (99%) D+22.0 +42.3
House District 8 R+51.1 R+34.4 7,908 6,945 (88%) D+11.5 +46.0 *
House District 35 ✓ D+5.3 D+21.9 6,972 6,858 (98%) D+47.3 +25.4
House District 23 R+19.4 R+2.8 7,676 6,775 (88%) D+29.7 +32.6 *
House District 24 R+33.4 R+16.8 7,299 6,629 (91%) D+22.2 +39.0 *
House District 29 R+46.5 R+29.9 7,607 6,599 (87%) D+17.5 +47.4 *
House District 26 ✓ R+56.0 R+39.4 6,879 6,543 (95%) D+13.6 +53.0
House District 34 R+21.6 R+5.0 7,208 6,493 (90%) D+31.7 +36.7 *
House District 7 R+45.9 R+29.3 6,979 6,372 (91%) D+16.8 +46.1 *
House District 11 R+2.4 D+14.2 7,135 6,214 (87%) D+34.1 +19.9 *
House District 16 D+15.3 D+31.9 6,967 6,212 (89%) D+50.1 +18.3 *
House District 3 D+15.4 D+32.0 7,983 6,174 (77%) D+56.1 +24.1 *
House District 28 R+50.4 R+33.8 6,706 6,150 (92%) D+16.6 +50.4 *
House District 21 D+8.4 D+25.0 6,532 6,128 (94%) D+43.6 +18.6 *
House District 15 R+2.6 D+14.1 6,730 6,117 (91%) D+38.6 +24.6 *
House District 33 R+52.9 R+36.3 6,434 5,893 (92%) D+7.2 +43.5 *
House District 36 R+22.8 R+6.2 6,890 5,875 (85%) D+32.4 +38.6 *
House District 10 R+3.4 D+13.2 6,331 5,756 (91%) D+38.5 +25.3 *
House District 27 R+57.9 R+41.3 6,455 5,690 (88%) D+11.7 +53.0 *
House District 4 D+39.2 D+55.8 6,650 5,682 (85%) D+72.9 +17.1 *
House District 30 R+46.1 R+29.4 7,522 5,468 (73%) D+14.1 +43.5 *
House District 12 D+1.3 D+18.0 6,181 5,213 (84%) D+41.9 +24.0 *
House District 17 D+34.9 D+51.5 5,557 4,966 (89%) D+63.8 +12.3 *
House District 13 D+1.3 D+17.9 5,462 4,660 (85%) D+42.6 +24.7 *
House District 1 R+18.2 R+1.5 6,181 4,591 (74%) D+31.4 +33.0 *
House District 31 R+3.5 D+13.1 5,045 4,501 (89%) D+41.1 +27.9 *
House District 20 D+12.7 D+29.3 5,233 4,500 (86%) D+50.8 +21.5 *
House District 14 D+22.2 D+38.8 5,345 4,498 (84%) D+54.3 +15.5 *
House District 2 D+0.4 D+17.0 6,840 4,322 (63%) D+51.6 +34.6 *
House District 5 R+13.3 D+3.3 5,769 3,886 (67%) D+36.5 +33.2 *
House District 22 D+1.3 D+17.9 3,947 3,533 (90%) D+46.1 +28.2 *
House District 39 ✓ D+12.7 D+29.3 2,907 3,370 (116%) D+45.9 +16.6
House District 19 D+17.8 D+34.4 3,603 3,236 (90%) D+53.8 +19.4 *
House District 32 R+33.0 R+16.4 4,226 3,109 (74%) D+28.8 +45.2 *
House District 37 R+7.0 D+9.7 3,102 2,837 (91%) D+38.9 +29.3 *
House District 38 ✓ D+13.1 D+29.7 2,694 2,708 (101%) D+51.1 +21.3
House District 40 ✓ R+10.7 D+5.9 2,291 2,452 (107%) D+38.1 +32.2
House District 18 R+16.4 D+0.2 3,466 1,604 (46%) D+43.2 +43.0 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Kansas Senate Adam Hamilton v Roger Marshall · our forecast D+3.0, 69% Democrat · totals only

Counted1,099,896 of ~1,009,221 expected (109%) · 105 of 105 counties
Like-for-like gap0.9 pts better for the Democrat on 1,046,529 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+3.8
Raw (not like for like)D+5.1 counted, D+4.3 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Johnson ✓ D+8.5 D+27.7 262,697 297,051 (113%) D+28.0 +0.3
Sedgwick ✓ R+13.8 D+5.4 155,206 182,715 (118%) D+7.7 +2.3
Shawnee ✓ D+0.5 D+19.7 65,914 69,959 (106%) D+19.0 −0.7
Douglas ✓ D+38.0 D+57.2 47,396 50,926 (107%) D+54.7 −2.5
Wyandotte ✓ D+23.9 D+43.1 35,035 43,181 (123%) D+48.7 +5.6
Leavenworth ✓ R+22.8 R+3.6 26,893 28,360 (105%) R+0.9 +2.7
Butler ✓ R+41.2 R+22.0 23,756 26,053 (110%) R+23.5 −1.5
Reno ✓ R+34.5 R+15.3 20,776 21,725 (105%) R+15.8 −0.5
Riley ✓ D+1.8 D+21.0 18,195 20,020 (110%) D+21.1 +0.1
Saline ✓ R+31.6 R+12.4 17,731 19,636 (111%) R+14.3 −2.0
Miami ✓ R+39.5 R+20.3 13,494 14,112 (105%) R+19.0 +1.3
Harvey ✓ R+21.1 R+1.8 12,917 13,737 (106%) R+3.9 −2.1
Crawford ✓ R+25.3 R+6.0 11,834 12,213 (103%) R+1.3 +4.7
McPherson ✓ R+41.1 R+21.9 11,154 11,545 (104%) R+25.6 −3.7
Lyon ✓ R+14.7 D+4.5 10,128 11,309 (112%) D+8.1 +3.6
Pottawatomie ✓ R+47.6 R+28.4 10,503 10,816 (103%) R+28.7 −0.3
Ellis ✓ R+46.1 R+26.9 10,552 10,645 (101%) R+24.7 +2.2
Cowley ✓ R+40.3 R+21.1 10,671 10,447 (98%) R+20.2 +0.8
Franklin ✓ R+40.1 R+20.9 9,535 9,787 (103%) R+17.9 +3.0
Finney ✓ R+34.7 R+15.5 7,191 9,234 (128%) D+2.5 +18.0
Montgomery R+51.1 R+31.8 9,611 9,024 (94%) R+31.3 +0.6 *
Barton ✓ R+56.7 R+37.5 8,095 8,463 (105%) R+38.1 −0.6
Sumner ✓ R+50.1 R+30.9 7,890 8,112 (103%) R+30.2 +0.7
Jefferson ✓ R+36.9 R+17.7 7,622 7,912 (104%) R+18.3 −0.6
Dickinson ✓ R+55.0 R+35.7 6,943 7,201 (104%) R+36.9 −1.2
Ford ✓ R+38.4 R+19.1 5,994 7,198 (120%) D+1.1 +20.2
Geary ✓ R+17.6 D+1.6 6,075 6,752 (111%) D+5.5 +3.9
Osage ✓ R+48.0 R+28.8 6,285 6,084 (97%) R+28.3 +0.5
Cherokee R+52.9 R+33.7 6,433 6,054 (94%) R+32.9 +0.8 *
Labette ✓ R+38.2 R+19.0 5,932 5,839 (98%) R+19.0 −0.1
Jackson ✓ R+42.6 R+23.4 5,105 5,264 (103%) R+22.2 +1.1
Atchison R+37.4 R+18.1 5,486 5,176 (94%) R+14.0 +4.2 *
Neosho ✓ R+48.1 R+28.9 5,106 4,916 (96%) R+26.0 +2.9
Marion ✓ R+49.1 R+29.9 4,815 4,707 (98%) R+34.9 −5.1
Bourbon R+54.2 R+34.9 4,839 4,573 (95%) R+34.7 +0.2 *
Nemaha ✓ R+67.0 R+47.8 4,609 4,494 (98%) R+54.5 −6.7
Seward ✓ R+39.0 R+19.7 2,944 4,188 (142%) D+13.5 +33.2
Allen ✓ R+46.1 R+26.9 4,138 4,087 (99%) R+22.9 +4.0
Marshall ✓ R+49.1 R+29.9 3,899 3,892 (100%) R+31.1 −1.2
Linn ✓ R+64.6 R+45.3 3,723 3,631 (98%) R+47.5 −2.1
Coffey ✓ R+55.7 R+36.5 3,443 3,376 (98%) R+39.8 −3.3
Brown ✓ R+47.9 R+28.7 3,367 3,373 (100%) R+29.9 −1.1
Clay ✓ R+55.5 R+36.3 3,301 3,309 (100%) R+40.1 −3.9
Pratt ✓ R+51.4 R+32.2 3,128 3,291 (105%) R+33.3 −1.1
Wabaunsee ✓ R+48.8 R+29.6 3,353 3,248 (97%) R+32.2 −2.6
Rice ✓ R+56.7 R+37.5 3,112 3,247 (104%) R+38.9 −1.4
Cloud ✓ R+60.6 R+41.3 3,209 3,157 (98%) R+42.0 −0.6
Kingman ✓ R+59.9 R+40.7 3,100 3,117 (101%) R+44.4 −3.7
Anderson ✓ R+59.8 R+40.5 2,908 2,858 (98%) R+41.7 −1.2
Thomas ✓ R+65.8 R+46.6 2,888 2,835 (98%) R+48.9 −2.4
Wilson R+62.4 R+43.1 3,322 2,787 (84%) R+46.2 −3.1 *
Doniphan ✓ R+63.5 R+44.3 2,644 2,562 (97%) R+48.0 −3.7
Russell R+61.3 R+42.1 2,717 2,549 (94%) R+44.5 −2.4 *
Mitchell ✓ R+65.6 R+46.3 2,375 2,469 (104%) R+53.4 −7.0
Ottawa ✓ R+66.6 R+47.3 2,388 2,443 (102%) R+54.7 −7.3
Morris ✓ R+46.6 R+27.3 2,244 2,324 (104%) R+23.4 +4.0
Ellsworth ✓ R+52.3 R+33.1 2,244 2,244 (100%) R+33.7 −0.7
Greenwood ✓ R+61.0 R+41.7 2,320 2,217 (96%) R+45.2 −3.5
Washington ✓ R+69.1 R+49.9 2,257 2,156 (96%) R+58.4 −8.5
Pawnee ✓ R+51.5 R+32.3 2,155 2,051 (95%) R+36.7 −4.4
Phillips R+73.7 R+54.5 2,199 1,982 (90%) R+60.2 −5.8 *
Republic ✓ R+65.7 R+46.5 1,970 1,942 (99%) R+49.6 −3.1
Rooks R+71.2 R+52.0 2,104 1,922 (91%) R+56.7 −4.7 *
Sherman R+68.7 R+49.5 2,052 1,901 (93%) R+53.4 −3.9 *
Harper R+64.0 R+44.8 1,979 1,841 (93%) R+47.9 −3.1 *
Norton ✓ R+67.7 R+48.4 1,799 1,807 (100%) R+54.7 −6.2
Barber ✓ R+72.2 R+52.9 1,745 1,672 (96%) R+59.4 −6.5
Scott ✓ R+74.7 R+55.5 1,703 1,655 (97%) R+55.2 +0.3
Gray ✓ R+69.0 R+49.8 1,718 1,647 (96%) R+50.5 −0.7
Grant ✓ R+63.0 R+43.7 1,613 1,617 (100%) R+35.1 +8.6
Smith R+68.5 R+49.3 1,645 1,523 (93%) R+57.5 −8.1 *
Stafford ✓ R+64.0 R+44.8 1,571 1,495 (95%) R+43.7 +1.0
Trego ✓ R+71.0 R+51.8 1,263 1,359 (108%) R+53.3 −1.6
Meade ✓ R+69.6 R+50.4 1,312 1,355 (103%) R+52.1 −1.7
Stevens ✓ R+75.5 R+56.3 1,401 1,340 (96%) R+50.2 +6.0
Rush ✓ R+65.4 R+46.2 1,334 1,304 (98%) R+45.7 +0.5
Osborne R+68.5 R+49.3 1,440 1,292 (90%) R+54.5 −5.2 *
Lincoln ✓ R+65.2 R+46.0 1,204 1,289 (107%) R+54.8 −8.8
Jewell ✓ R+75.9 R+56.6 1,208 1,200 (99%) R+64.4 −7.8
Chase ✓ R+50.8 R+31.5 1,185 1,153 (97%) R+33.7 −2.1
Chautauqua R+71.3 R+52.0 1,182 1,109 (94%) R+60.4 −8.4 *
Woodson R+61.3 R+42.1 1,185 1,108 (94%) R+44.9 −2.9 *
Decatur ✓ R+69.0 R+49.8 1,132 1,096 (97%) R+56.8 −7.1
Logan ✓ R+71.6 R+52.4 1,105 1,096 (99%) R+56.7 −4.2
Rawlins R+72.6 R+53.3 1,155 1,085 (94%) R+57.0 −3.6 *
Ness R+78.9 R+59.7 1,157 1,084 (94%) R+65.1 −5.4 *
Cheyenne ✓ R+68.8 R+49.6 1,039 1,064 (102%) R+53.9 −4.2
Sheridan R+80.3 R+61.1 1,112 1,048 (94%) R+69.9 −8.8 *
Kearny ✓ R+68.4 R+49.2 957 1,025 (107%) R+52.5 −3.3
Edwards R+65.3 R+46.1 1,093 1,017 (93%) R+52.9 −6.8 *
Graham ✓ R+65.7 R+46.4 1,033 1,014 (98%) R+49.0 −2.6
Elk R+69.7 R+50.4 1,076 1,011 (94%) R+58.8 −8.3 *
Haskell ✓ R+64.5 R+45.3 994 997 (100%) R+43.5 +1.7
Gove R+77.1 R+57.9 1,161 949 (82%) R+62.3 −4.4 *
Kiowa R+71.4 R+52.1 944 884 (94%) R+57.4 −5.2 *
Clark R+72.8 R+53.6 854 752 (88%) R+54.4 −0.8 *
Morton R+73.4 R+54.2 808 738 (91%) R+57.0 −2.9 *
Hodgeman R+70.5 R+51.3 807 731 (91%) R+57.3 −6.0 *
Wichita ✓ R+73.6 R+54.4 713 694 (97%) R+59.1 −4.7
Lane ✓ R+70.9 R+51.7 681 670 (98%) R+56.3 −4.6
Comanche R+68.3 R+49.1 744 628 (84%) R+47.3 +1.8 *
Wallace R+84.8 R+65.5 672 599 (89%) R+76.0 −10.4 *
Hamilton ✓ R+66.3 R+47.0 605 575 (95%) R+48.7 −1.7
Stanton ✓ R+63.6 R+44.3 517 531 (103%) R+42.7 +1.6
Greeley ✓ R+73.4 R+54.1 453 444 (98%) R+45.9 +8.2

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Ohio Senate (special) Sherrod Brown v Jon Husted · our forecast D+3.1, 69% Democrat · count split by method

Counted4,601,571 of ~4,138,378 expected (111%) · 88 of 88 counties
Like-for-like gap0.7 pts better for the Democrat on 4,601,571 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+3.8
Raw (not like for like)D+4.9 counted, D+4.1 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Franklin ✓ D+28.4 D+42.5 425,246 505,352 (119%) D+42.1 −0.4
Cuyahoga ✓ D+31.5 D+45.6 409,773 475,488 (116%) D+43.7 −1.9
Hamilton ✓ D+14.9 D+29.0 303,600 342,187 (113%) D+25.3 −3.7
Summit ✓ D+7.0 D+21.1 199,835 225,274 (113%) D+22.6 +1.5
Montgomery ✓ D+0.5 D+14.6 186,826 202,829 (109%) D+15.0 +0.4
Lucas ✓ D+12.5 D+26.7 132,730 152,674 (115%) D+25.7 −0.9
Butler ✓ R+26.3 R+12.1 128,249 146,581 (114%) R+10.3 +1.8
Stark ✓ R+21.9 R+7.8 133,502 144,622 (108%) R+5.3 +2.5
Lorain ✓ R+5.7 D+8.4 111,679 129,806 (116%) D+11.2 +2.8
Delaware ✓ R+6.6 D+7.5 98,858 117,285 (119%) D+4.5 −3.1
Warren ✓ R+31.5 R+17.4 101,415 113,087 (112%) R+17.9 −0.5
Lake ✓ R+14.3 R+0.2 94,219 105,841 (112%) D+1.6 +1.8
Clermont ✓ R+35.8 R+21.6 80,041 89,383 (112%) R+19.8 +1.8
Mahoning ✓ R+9.4 D+4.7 85,818 89,146 (104%) D+7.2 +2.5
Medina ✓ R+24.8 R+10.7 77,939 85,424 (110%) R+9.4 +1.3
Trumbull ✓ R+16.8 R+2.7 72,972 74,350 (102%) D+2.6 +5.3
Greene ✓ R+19.8 R+5.7 65,895 74,259 (113%) R+7.5 −1.9
Licking ✓ R+30.0 R+15.9 66,340 74,189 (112%) R+12.1 +3.7
Fairfield ✓ R+24.0 R+9.9 59,231 68,207 (115%) R+6.6 +3.3
Portage ✓ R+15.5 R+1.4 60,449 65,900 (109%) D+2.7 +4.1
Wood ✓ R+10.1 D+4.0 48,459 54,472 (112%) D+4.6 +0.6
Clark ✓ R+29.5 R+15.4 44,272 48,806 (110%) R+13.2 +2.2
Miami ✓ R+45.1 R+31.0 42,161 45,636 (108%) R+30.9 +0.1
Geauga ✓ R+24.1 R+10.0 42,679 45,439 (106%) R+11.8 −1.8
Richland ✓ R+42.3 R+28.2 41,716 44,064 (106%) R+26.2 +2.0
Wayne ✓ R+39.2 R+25.1 38,431 41,300 (107%) R+25.2 −0.1
Allen ✓ R+44.1 R+30.0 32,657 35,218 (108%) R+31.0 −1.1
Columbiana ✓ R+49.0 R+34.9 35,534 34,859 (98%) R+30.7 +4.1
Ashtabula ✓ R+28.4 R+14.2 30,838 33,016 (107%) R+9.2 +5.1
Tuscarawas ✓ R+43.3 R+29.1 30,339 32,117 (106%) R+23.4 +5.7
Erie ✓ R+14.1 Even 28,887 31,963 (111%) D+1.0 +1.0
Union ✓ R+29.6 R+15.5 25,395 31,167 (123%) R+13.7 +1.8
Hancock ✓ R+38.4 R+24.3 27,102 28,902 (107%) R+23.5 +0.8
Muskingum ✓ R+43.9 R+29.8 27,302 28,820 (106%) R+26.9 +2.8
Ross ✓ R+39.3 R+25.2 22,586 24,660 (109%) R+21.5 +3.7
Knox ✓ R+44.9 R+30.8 23,073 24,172 (105%) R+31.4 −0.6
Washington ✓ R+43.7 R+29.6 22,750 22,638 (100%) R+24.9 +4.7
Sandusky ✓ R+30.9 R+16.7 21,343 22,577 (106%) R+13.1 +3.7
Pickaway ✓ R+48.5 R+34.4 19,555 22,145 (113%) R+31.1 +3.3
Jefferson ✓ R+43.9 R+29.8 22,884 22,072 (96%) R+24.3 +5.4
Belmont ✓ R+47.3 R+33.1 22,525 22,004 (98%) R+26.3 +6.9
Scioto ✓ R+47.9 R+33.8 21,067 21,498 (102%) R+25.5 +8.3
Athens ✓ D+10.7 D+24.9 19,075 20,327 (107%) D+30.5 +5.6
Darke ✓ R+65.3 R+51.2 19,750 20,041 (101%) R+52.5 −1.2
Marion ✓ R+41.4 R+27.2 19,102 19,940 (104%) R+22.1 +5.1
Ashland ✓ R+49.9 R+35.8 18,400 19,879 (108%) R+34.4 +1.4
Huron ✓ R+44.0 R+29.9 18,396 19,650 (107%) R+23.1 +6.8
Auglaize ✓ R+64.5 R+50.4 18,663 19,243 (103%) R+53.4 −3.0
Ottawa ✓ R+25.1 R+10.9 18,483 19,231 (104%) R+12.6 −1.7
Shelby ✓ R+64.8 R+50.7 18,021 18,981 (105%) R+53.0 −2.4
Seneca ✓ R+37.5 R+23.4 17,986 18,789 (104%) R+19.1 +4.3
Lawrence ✓ R+50.5 R+36.4 17,490 18,034 (103%) R+28.1 +8.3
Mercer ✓ R+66.7 R+52.6 17,779 18,021 (101%) R+57.0 −4.4
Logan ✓ R+56.2 R+42.1 16,449 17,791 (108%) R+40.9 +1.1
Fulton ✓ R+42.4 R+28.2 16,332 17,359 (106%) R+28.2 +0.1
Madison ✓ R+43.6 R+29.5 14,113 16,256 (115%) R+27.8 +1.7
Champaign ✓ R+50.7 R+36.6 14,348 15,502 (108%) R+32.0 +4.7
Clinton ✓ R+54.6 R+40.5 14,077 15,403 (109%) R+37.7 +2.7
Putnam ✓ R+68.7 R+54.6 14,999 15,397 (103%) R+59.3 −4.7
Preble ✓ R+59.1 R+45.0 15,689 15,352 (98%) R+42.7 +2.2
Brown ✓ R+61.5 R+47.3 14,132 14,947 (106%) R+42.8 +4.5
Crawford ✓ R+52.9 R+38.8 14,803 14,685 (99%) R+36.0 +2.8
Defiance ✓ R+39.8 R+25.7 13,334 14,521 (109%) R+24.9 +0.8
Highland ✓ R+63.3 R+49.2 13,110 14,269 (109%) R+44.0 +5.2
Morrow ✓ R+55.7 R+41.6 13,288 14,108 (106%) R+39.6 +2.0
Williams ✓ R+48.2 R+34.1 12,874 13,527 (105%) R+34.4 −0.3
Guernsey ✓ R+52.0 R+37.9 12,183 12,689 (104%) R+32.4 +5.5
Perry ✓ R+54.5 R+40.4 11,899 12,474 (105%) R+35.0 +5.4
Coshocton ✓ R+52.2 R+38.1 11,276 11,729 (104%) R+34.3 +3.7
Henry ✓ R+46.7 R+32.6 10,386 11,157 (107%) R+32.6 −0.1
Van Wert ✓ R+58.5 R+44.3 10,135 10,511 (104%) R+44.4 −0.0
Carroll ✓ R+54.7 R+40.6 10,115 10,268 (102%) R+38.3 +2.3
Wyandot ✓ R+51.2 R+37.1 8,095 9,974 (123%) R+29.4 +7.6
Jackson ✓ R+58.0 R+43.9 8,884 9,757 (110%) R+35.9 +8.0
Hocking ✓ R+44.3 R+30.1 9,492 9,710 (102%) R+24.9 +5.2
Hardin ✓ R+54.6 R+40.5 8,992 9,083 (101%) R+37.1 +3.4
Fayette ✓ R+55.1 R+41.0 8,389 9,076 (108%) R+39.6 +1.4
Paulding ✓ R+56.2 R+42.1 6,460 8,931 (138%) R+38.3 +3.8
Adams ✓ R+65.7 R+51.6 8,743 8,924 (102%) R+44.6 +7.0
Holmes ✓ R+69.1 R+55.0 8,620 8,890 (103%) R+57.1 −2.2
Gallia ✓ R+59.4 R+45.2 9,109 8,662 (95%) R+40.2 +5.0
Pike ✓ R+53.7 R+39.5 7,815 8,525 (109%) R+31.3 +8.3
Meigs ✓ R+56.9 R+42.8 7,464 7,505 (101%) R+36.2 +6.6
Harrison ✓ R+55.2 R+41.1 5,172 5,027 (97%) R+34.3 +6.8
Morgan ✓ R+53.2 R+39.0 4,811 4,831 (100%) R+35.5 +3.5
Monroe ✓ R+59.7 R+45.6 4,857 4,780 (98%) R+38.3 +7.3
Noble ✓ R+64.6 R+50.5 4,602 4,483 (97%) R+46.1 +4.4
Vinton ✓ R+58.6 R+44.4 4,014 3,903 (97%) R+36.6 +7.8

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Texas Senate James Talarico v Ken Paxton · our forecast D+4.0, 70% Democrat · totals only

Counted9,886,768 of ~8,078,178 expected (122%) · 254 of 254 counties
Like-for-like gap6.9 pts better for the Democrat on 9,862,027 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+11.0
Raw (not like for like)D+12.1 counted, D+5.1 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Harris ✓ D+5.5 D+23.0 1,097,892 1,382,875 (126%) D+33.0 +10.0
Dallas ✓ D+22.1 D+39.6 623,883 783,308 (126%) D+45.6 +6.0
Tarrant ✓ R+5.1 D+12.3 589,567 728,259 (124%) D+19.2 +6.9
Bexar ✓ D+9.7 D+27.2 538,522 658,445 (122%) D+35.5 +8.3
Travis ✓ D+39.1 D+56.6 461,264 548,521 (119%) D+58.5 +1.9
Collin ✓ R+11.1 D+6.3 364,138 457,413 (126%) D+12.1 +5.8
Denton ✓ R+13.2 D+4.3 317,007 395,959 (125%) D+8.4 +4.2
Fort Bend ✓ D+1.6 D+19.0 249,051 331,775 (133%) D+28.6 +9.6
Williamson ✓ R+2.4 D+15.0 225,064 278,482 (124%) D+20.3 +5.3
Montgomery ✓ R+45.5 R+28.1 207,554 258,438 (125%) R+22.2 +5.9
El Paso ✓ D+15.1 D+32.5 164,311 219,956 (134%) D+48.0 +15.4
Hidalgo ✓ R+2.9 D+14.6 140,343 202,520 (144%) D+46.5 +31.9
Brazoria ✓ R+19.7 R+2.3 109,618 141,824 (129%) D+5.4 +7.7
Galveston ✓ R+27.4 R+10.0 110,374 134,555 (122%) R+5.9 +4.1
Hays ✓ D+5.6 D+23.1 89,376 119,693 (134%) D+32.1 +9.0
Bell ✓ R+16.2 D+1.2 87,631 110,495 (126%) D+5.1 +3.9
Lubbock ✓ R+39.6 R+22.1 83,560 104,328 (125%) R+16.5 +5.6
Cameron ✓ R+5.8 D+11.6 76,574 102,017 (133%) D+38.5 +26.9
Nueces ✓ R+11.5 D+5.9 88,881 99,851 (112%) D+11.2 +5.3
Comal ✓ R+45.6 R+28.1 74,602 89,221 (120%) R+29.3 −1.1
Smith ✓ R+45.0 R+27.6 76,067 88,960 (117%) R+24.6 +3.0
Ellis ✓ R+31.0 R+13.6 67,630 88,524 (131%) R+4.4 +9.1
McLennan ✓ R+30.9 R+13.5 72,406 83,056 (115%) R+8.5 +4.9
Brazos ✓ R+24.9 R+7.4 59,810 79,867 (134%) D+6.0 +13.4
Parker ✓ R+66.5 R+49.0 63,355 76,140 (120%) R+50.9 −1.8
Jefferson ✓ R+8.9 D+8.6 62,174 72,750 (117%) D+13.2 +4.7
Guadalupe ✓ R+29.5 R+12.0 57,027 70,924 (124%) R+5.8 +6.2
Johnson ✓ R+51.4 R+33.9 55,757 69,924 (125%) R+27.2 +6.8
Kaufman ✓ R+27.8 R+10.4 42,702 62,251 (146%) D+1.3 +11.7
Webb ✓ R+2.1 D+15.3 43,936 58,349 (133%) D+47.3 +32.0
Grayson ✓ R+54.2 R+36.8 44,926 53,782 (120%) R+37.4 −0.6
Rockwall ✓ R+40.8 R+23.3 42,790 53,505 (125%) R+22.5 +0.9
Randall ✓ R+60.4 R+43.0 47,934 53,195 (111%) R+41.1 +1.9
Midland ✓ R+60.4 R+43.0 39,957 44,039 (110%) R+37.5 +5.5
Taylor ✓ R+49.8 R+32.4 39,292 42,673 (109%) R+31.1 +1.3
Gregg ✓ R+42.3 R+24.9 33,139 38,041 (115%) R+20.1 +4.7
Hunt ✓ R+55.6 R+38.1 30,484 37,502 (123%) R+33.9 +4.3
Bastrop ✓ R+18.3 R+0.9 29,123 36,976 (127%) D+10.9 +11.8
Tom Green ✓ R+48.1 R+30.6 31,742 36,169 (114%) R+26.9 +3.7
Wichita ✓ R+44.0 R+26.6 31,518 34,327 (109%) R+24.2 +2.4
Henderson ✓ R+63.5 R+46.0 27,966 31,073 (111%) R+46.1 −0.1
Wise ✓ R+70.1 R+52.7 25,769 30,972 (120%) R+52.3 +0.4
Hood ✓ R+66.1 R+48.7 27,196 30,225 (111%) R+52.4 −3.7
Ector ✓ R+52.9 R+35.4 25,374 29,474 (116%) R+18.9 +16.5
Victoria ✓ R+42.6 R+25.2 25,176 28,167 (112%) R+23.1 +2.1
Bowie ✓ R+48.7 R+31.2 26,496 27,696 (105%) R+32.1 −0.9
Angelina ✓ R+52.0 R+34.6 24,509 27,286 (111%) R+30.4 +4.2
Orange ✓ R+66.7 R+49.3 25,060 26,299 (105%) R+49.9 −0.6
Kendall ✓ R+55.8 R+38.3 22,460 26,064 (116%) R+43.2 −4.8
Potter ✓ R+44.5 R+27.0 21,719 25,673 (118%) R+19.1 +8.0
Liberty ✓ R+61.7 R+44.2 19,734 25,449 (129%) R+28.1 +16.2
Burnet ✓ R+55.8 R+38.4 21,068 24,246 (115%) R+38.9 −0.6
Harrison ✓ R+50.6 R+33.2 21,303 24,043 (113%) R+34.7 −1.5
Waller ✓ R+25.1 R+7.6 16,664 23,751 (143%) R+1.8 +5.8
Kerr ✓ R+54.4 R+37.0 22,427 23,426 (104%) R+37.3 −0.3
Van Zandt ✓ R+74.9 R+57.5 20,533 22,153 (108%) R+60.9 −3.5
Wilson ✓ R+53.7 R+36.3 19,415 21,988 (113%) R+35.6 +0.7
Walker ✓ R+40.0 R+22.6 17,342 21,628 (125%) R+19.1 +3.5
Nacogdoches ✓ R+38.8 R+21.4 18,926 21,488 (114%) R+13.2 +8.2
Medina ✓ R+42.8 R+25.3 17,312 21,237 (123%) R+21.8 +3.5
Hardin ✓ R+75.9 R+58.5 19,594 20,922 (107%) R+61.5 −3.0
San Patricio ✓ R+36.5 R+19.0 17,818 20,107 (113%) R+12.7 +6.3
Wood ✓ R+69.8 R+52.4 18,150 19,754 (109%) R+59.0 −6.6
Chambers ✓ R+65.7 R+48.3 15,682 19,453 (124%) R+45.9 +2.4
Coryell ✓ R+40.7 R+23.2 16,312 18,846 (116%) R+19.3 +4.0
Polk ✓ R+59.0 R+41.6 16,743 17,493 (104%) R+45.9 −4.3
Rusk ✓ R+59.4 R+42.0 15,572 17,346 (111%) R+40.3 +1.7
Cooke ✓ R+66.9 R+49.5 15,293 17,142 (112%) R+49.3 +0.2
Cherokee ✓ R+62.8 R+45.3 14,444 16,601 (115%) R+43.8 +1.5
Lamar ✓ R+61.0 R+43.6 15,344 16,419 (107%) R+45.6 −2.0
Navarro ✓ R+51.8 R+34.4 14,099 16,100 (114%) R+29.1 +5.3
Upshur ✓ R+71.1 R+53.7 14,254 15,492 (109%) R+56.0 −2.3
Washington ✓ R+54.6 R+37.2 13,949 15,480 (111%) R+41.4 −4.2
Anderson ✓ R+61.8 R+44.4 14,415 15,257 (106%) R+45.5 −1.2
Caldwell ✓ R+14.4 D+3.0 11,288 14,781 (131%) D+15.7 +12.6
Gillespie ✓ R+61.0 R+43.5 13,366 14,579 (109%) R+47.1 −3.5
Atascosa ✓ R+43.3 R+25.9 12,634 14,529 (115%) R+14.9 +11.0
Erath ✓ R+67.9 R+50.5 13,077 14,107 (108%) R+45.9 +4.6
Hopkins ✓ R+64.7 R+47.3 12,324 13,282 (108%) R+45.5 +1.7
Hill ✓ R+64.4 R+47.0 11,361 13,142 (116%) R+46.2 +0.8
Starr ✓ R+16.0 D+1.4 10,986 13,082 (119%) D+55.8 +54.4
Fannin ✓ R+67.4 R+50.0 11,597 12,976 (112%) R+51.7 −1.7
Brown ✓ R+74.0 R+56.6 12,254 12,946 (106%) R+60.8 −4.2
Austin ✓ R+62.6 R+45.2 11,195 12,819 (115%) R+46.1 −0.9
Wharton ✓ R+51.9 R+34.4 12,129 12,587 (104%) R+34.7 −0.3
Maverick ✓ R+18.5 R+1.1 9,483 12,551 (132%) D+41.1 +42.2
Jasper ✓ R+66.6 R+49.2 11,370 11,981 (105%) R+51.5 −2.3
Grimes ✓ R+60.3 R+42.9 9,413 11,718 (124%) R+43.8 −0.9
Llano ✓ R+60.9 R+43.5 11,021 11,665 (106%) R+49.8 −6.3
Val Verde ✓ R+26.6 R+9.2 9,417 11,641 (124%) D+12.2 +21.4
Fayette ✓ R+61.3 R+43.9 10,486 11,183 (107%) R+45.1 −1.2
Matagorda ✓ R+50.6 R+33.2 9,695 10,928 (113%) R+29.4 +3.8
Cass ✓ R+65.8 R+48.3 9,951 10,836 (109%) R+55.6 −7.3
Jim Wells ✓ R+15.5 D+1.9 9,496 10,664 (112%) D+15.4 +13.5
Aransas ✓ R+55.8 R+38.4 9,608 10,596 (110%) R+42.6 −4.3
San Jacinto ✓ R+65.4 R+47.9 9,522 10,407 (109%) R+49.9 −1.9
Palo Pinto ✓ R+67.2 R+49.8 9,467 10,377 (110%) R+48.4 +1.3
Bandera ✓ R+61.9 R+44.5 10,456 10,234 (98%) R+51.5 −7.0
Lampasas ✓ R+59.5 R+42.1 8,214 9,161 (112%) R+43.8 −1.7
Titus ✓ R+54.7 R+37.3 7,308 8,735 (120%) R+24.8 +12.5
Montague ✓ R+77.8 R+60.3 7,840 8,637 (110%) R+66.7 −6.3
Milam ✓ R+57.4 R+40.0 8,340 8,608 (103%) R+40.0 −0.0
Lavaca ✓ R+76.1 R+58.7 8,195 8,583 (105%) R+65.6 −6.9
Panola ✓ R+66.5 R+49.1 8,298 8,560 (103%) R+52.7 −3.6
Colorado ✓ R+57.2 R+39.7 7,533 8,353 (111%) R+43.3 −3.6
Uvalde ✓ R+33.4 R+16.0 7,908 8,348 (106%) R+2.4 +13.6
Kleberg ✓ R+12.7 D+4.8 7,592 8,159 (107%) D+14.9 +10.2
Burleson ✓ R+62.9 R+45.5 6,702 7,799 (116%) R+48.2 −2.7
Bosque ✓ R+67.3 R+49.9 7,443 7,720 (104%) R+52.5 −2.6
Blanco ✓ R+52.4 R+35.0 6,757 7,557 (112%) R+41.7 −6.7
Hale ✓ R+58.0 R+40.6 6,316 7,536 (119%) R+29.7 +10.9
Shelby ✓ R+64.7 R+47.2 6,923 7,489 (108%) R+47.4 −0.2
Houston ✓ R+55.4 R+37.9 7,172 7,447 (104%) R+45.7 −7.8
Freestone ✓ R+66.4 R+49.0 6,647 7,307 (110%) R+50.6 −1.5
Limestone ✓ R+56.8 R+39.4 6,822 7,245 (106%) R+36.5 +2.9
Tyler ✓ R+73.5 R+56.1 7,228 7,210 (100%) R+61.9 −5.8
Bee ✓ R+39.9 R+22.5 6,380 7,153 (112%) R+13.6 +8.9
Howard ✓ R+62.9 R+45.4 6,530 7,052 (108%) R+40.3 +5.1
Leon ✓ R+76.8 R+59.4 6,837 7,051 (103%) R+64.7 −5.3
Robertson ✓ R+52.1 R+34.7 5,998 6,973 (116%) R+32.5 +2.1
Lee ✓ R+60.4 R+43.0 6,266 6,921 (110%) R+42.5 +0.5
Gonzales ✓ R+54.8 R+37.4 5,539 6,689 (121%) R+31.0 +6.4
Young ✓ R+76.3 R+58.9 6,184 6,560 (106%) R+59.9 −1.0
Hockley ✓ R+66.4 R+48.9 5,520 6,440 (117%) R+45.9 +3.0
Eastland ✓ R+77.7 R+60.3 6,143 6,320 (103%) R+63.4 −3.1
Calhoun ✓ R+52.2 R+34.8 5,574 6,319 (113%) R+31.8 +3.0
Dewitt ✓ R+67.1 R+49.7 6,052 6,246 (103%) R+54.0 −4.3
Hutchinson ✓ R+77.3 R+59.8 6,053 6,061 (100%) R+60.2 −0.3
Trinity ✓ R+67.1 R+49.7 5,332 5,754 (108%) R+53.3 −3.6
Gray ✓ R+77.2 R+59.8 5,539 5,498 (99%) R+57.8 +2.0
Callahan ✓ R+77.7 R+60.2 5,251 5,382 (102%) R+64.3 −4.1
Jones ✓ R+73.1 R+55.7 4,983 5,224 (105%) R+56.0 −0.4
Comanche ✓ R+74.1 R+56.7 4,820 5,146 (107%) R+57.8 −1.1
Rains ✓ R+73.0 R+55.6 4,976 5,080 (102%) R+61.6 −6.0
Jackson ✓ R+70.8 R+53.4 4,590 4,996 (109%) R+54.3 −0.9
Falls ✓ R+44.8 R+27.4 4,694 4,925 (105%) R+28.5 −1.2
Gaines ✓ R+82.8 R+65.3 4,105 4,786 (117%) R+63.4 +1.9
Willacy ✓ R+3.3 D+14.1 3,826 4,645 (121%) D+35.0 +20.9
Clay ✓ R+79.6 R+62.2 4,481 4,633 (103%) R+67.9 −5.7
Somervell ✓ R+70.6 R+53.1 4,032 4,302 (107%) R+57.4 −4.2
Madison ✓ R+64.5 R+47.0 3,903 4,288 (110%) R+47.3 −0.3
Camp ✓ R+53.6 R+36.1 3,973 4,278 (108%) R+34.5 +1.7
Newton ✓ R+66.7 R+49.2 4,365 4,270 (98%) R+54.8 −5.6
Sabine ✓ R+78.6 R+61.2 4,161 4,262 (102%) R+69.2 −8.0
Red River ✓ R+61.8 R+44.4 4,266 4,250 (100%) R+48.3 −3.9
Franklin ✓ R+69.0 R+51.6 3,910 4,240 (108%) R+55.1 −3.6
Morris ✓ R+51.1 R+33.7 3,984 4,202 (105%) R+37.5 −3.8
Scurry ✓ R+73.6 R+56.2 4,116 4,168 (101%) R+58.4 −2.3
Andrews ✓ R+72.7 R+55.3 3,810 4,145 (109%) R+43.6 +11.7
Moore ✓ R+67.2 R+49.8 3,589 4,111 (115%) R+30.6 +19.1
Karnes ✓ R+58.2 R+40.8 3,808 4,029 (106%) R+38.1 +2.7
Archer ✓ R+79.5 R+62.0 3,845 3,996 (104%) R+69.2 −7.2
Live Oak ✓ R+69.7 R+52.3 3,993 3,855 (97%) R+57.4 −5.1
Marion ✓ R+52.6 R+35.2 3,292 3,826 (116%) R+41.4 −6.3
Brewster ✓ R+12.6 D+4.8 3,745 3,808 (102%) D+11.3 +6.5
Frio ✓ R+24.6 R+7.1 3,694 3,798 (103%) D+11.3 +18.4
Nolan ✓ R+59.2 R+41.8 3,783 3,716 (98%) R+39.5 +2.3
Hamilton ✓ R+71.2 R+53.7 3,471 3,561 (103%) R+58.5 −4.8
Deaf Smith ✓ R+51.7 R+34.3 2,931 3,523 (120%) R+15.0 +19.3
Jack ✓ R+82.4 R+65.0 2,990 3,392 (113%) R+68.8 −3.8
Wilbarger ✓ R+60.7 R+43.2 3,144 3,385 (108%) R+44.4 −1.2
Goliad ✓ R+60.2 R+42.8 3,357 3,350 (100%) R+47.0 −4.2
Pecos R+44.9 R+27.5 3,645 3,339 (92%) R+9.1 +18.4 *
Duval R+10.0 D+7.5 3,637 3,280 (90%) D+36.7 +29.3 *
Lamb ✓ R+64.4 R+47.0 3,069 3,279 (107%) R+44.7 +2.3
Zapata ✓ R+22.5 R+5.0 3,421 3,253 (95%) D+40.7 +45.8
Coleman ✓ R+79.0 R+61.6 3,230 3,232 (100%) R+69.1 −7.6
Runnels ✓ R+77.2 R+59.8 3,230 3,169 (98%) R+63.0 −3.2
Reeves ✓ R+36.9 R+19.5 2,158 3,099 (144%) D+7.7 +27.2
Zavala ✓ D+14.5 D+31.9 2,426 3,078 (127%) D+50.6 +18.7
San Augustine ✓ R+56.3 R+38.9 2,861 3,077 (108%) R+40.2 −1.3
Stephens ✓ R+79.3 R+61.9 2,745 2,784 (101%) R+63.9 −2.0
Dimmit D+3.0 D+20.4 2,855 2,688 (94%) D+39.1 +18.7 *
McCulloch ✓ R+73.5 R+56.1 2,556 2,664 (104%) R+61.2 −5.2
Terry ✓ R+65.1 R+47.7 2,571 2,616 (102%) R+43.3 +4.4
Dawson ✓ R+61.1 R+43.7 2,507 2,572 (103%) R+44.6 −0.9
Ward ✓ R+66.2 R+48.7 2,510 2,554 (102%) R+42.1 +6.7
Refugio ✓ R+39.6 R+22.1 2,310 2,404 (104%) R+24.5 −2.4
Carson ✓ R+81.2 R+63.8 2,391 2,379 (99%) R+67.0 −3.2
Ochiltree ✓ R+81.6 R+64.2 2,121 2,328 (110%) R+53.6 +10.6
San Saba ✓ R+78.9 R+61.5 2,163 2,186 (101%) R+64.3 −2.8
Mason ✓ R+65.0 R+47.6 2,057 2,158 (105%) R+52.2 −4.6
Mills ✓ R+77.0 R+59.6 2,115 2,128 (101%) R+65.5 −5.9
Lynn ✓ R+70.4 R+53.0 1,717 2,122 (124%) R+55.7 −2.7
Delta ✓ R+69.8 R+52.4 2,020 2,001 (99%) R+55.2 −2.8
Parmer ✓ R+70.2 R+52.7 1,758 1,975 (112%) R+45.4 +7.3
Kimble ✓ R+77.7 R+60.2 1,870 1,971 (105%) R+63.3 −3.0
Presidio ✓ D+30.3 D+47.7 1,708 1,878 (110%) D+54.8 +7.2
Mitchell ✓ R+71.4 R+54.0 1,776 1,861 (105%) R+60.2 −6.3
La Salle ✓ R+20.5 R+3.1 1,428 1,858 (130%) D+16.8 +20.0
Brooks D+9.6 D+27.1 1,998 1,813 (91%) D+40.5 +13.4 *
Yoakum ✓ R+70.9 R+53.5 1,631 1,774 (109%) R+37.8 +15.7
Swisher ✓ R+63.4 R+46.0 1,656 1,714 (104%) R+44.5 +1.5
Wheeler ✓ R+84.7 R+67.3 1,685 1,690 (100%) R+72.4 −5.1
Childress ✓ R+76.1 R+58.7 1,744 1,685 (97%) R+61.8 −3.2
Floyd ✓ R+65.0 R+47.6 1,464 1,628 (111%) R+41.0 +6.6
Haskell ✓ R+71.6 R+54.1 1,665 1,623 (97%) R+58.2 −4.1
Castro ✓ R+58.2 R+40.8 1,482 1,542 (104%) R+40.2 +0.6
Hartley ✓ R+83.5 R+66.0 1,571 1,530 (97%) R+68.2 −2.1
Hansford ✓ R+85.0 R+67.5 1,517 1,509 (99%) R+64.2 +3.3
Real ✓ R+66.9 R+49.5 1,564 1,505 (96%) R+56.5 −7.0
Crosby ✓ R+51.4 R+34.0 1,251 1,490 (119%) R+27.6 +6.4
Martin ✓ R+75.8 R+58.3 1,502 1,478 (98%) R+58.9 −0.6
Bailey ✓ R+61.2 R+43.7 1,327 1,416 (107%) R+34.7 +9.1
Fisher ✓ R+63.2 R+45.8 1,396 1,406 (101%) R+51.1 −5.4
Coke ✓ R+79.7 R+62.3 1,385 1,354 (98%) R+67.2 −4.9
Jim Hogg D+8.3 D+25.7 1,532 1,351 (88%) D+50.4 +24.7 *
Winkler ✓ R+70.6 R+53.2 1,317 1,339 (102%) R+39.2 +14.0
Shackelford ✓ R+82.2 R+64.8 1,237 1,279 (103%) R+74.0 −9.2
Donley ✓ R+78.2 R+60.8 1,188 1,265 (106%) R+66.4 −5.6
Hemphill R+75.8 R+58.4 1,356 1,244 (92%) R+56.2 +2.2 *
Kinney ✓ R+50.5 R+33.1 1,183 1,229 (104%) R+28.7 +4.3
Baylor R+77.0 R+59.6 1,305 1,204 (92%) R+65.7 −6.1 *
Garza ✓ R+72.6 R+55.1 1,199 1,160 (97%) R+56.2 −1.1
Sutton R+67.1 R+49.7 1,156 1,092 (94%) R+47.6 +2.1 *
Dallam ✓ R+78.4 R+61.0 1,045 1,021 (98%) R+50.0 +10.9
Jeff Davis ✓ R+21.3 R+3.9 1,046 1,011 (97%) R+4.8 −0.9
Crane R+72.7 R+55.3 1,141 1,009 (88%) R+40.3 +14.9 *
Knox ✓ R+68.6 R+51.1 1,034 1,007 (97%) R+49.9 +1.3
Concho ✓ R+74.0 R+56.6 939 993 (106%) R+58.0 −1.4
Crockett R+53.9 R+36.5 1,259 988 (78%) R+29.3 +7.2 *
Hardeman ✓ R+72.8 R+55.4 983 974 (99%) R+58.3 −2.9
Collingsworth ✓ R+77.6 R+60.2 925 950 (103%) R+66.6 −6.4
Lipscomb ✓ R+79.7 R+62.3 975 933 (96%) R+67.5 −5.2
Schleicher R+64.6 R+47.1 1,001 915 (91%) R+44.9 +2.2 *
Culberson ✓ R+16.9 D+0.5 725 867 (120%) D+22.1 +21.6
Armstrong ✓ R+85.6 R+68.2 900 862 (96%) R+75.6 −7.5
Upton R+77.1 R+59.7 1,042 859 (82%) R+54.4 +5.3 *
Hall R+73.4 R+56.0 876 826 (94%) R+61.0 −5.0 *
Edwards ✓ R+73.3 R+55.9 814 805 (99%) R+56.0 −0.1
Hudspeth R+46.1 R+28.7 860 801 (93%) R+15.0 +13.7 *
Menard ✓ R+66.5 R+49.1 774 784 (101%) R+49.9 −0.8
Dickens R+70.4 R+52.9 790 748 (95%) R+58.7 −5.8 *
Oldham ✓ R+84.4 R+67.0 767 744 (97%) R+71.4 −4.4
Sherman ✓ R+83.3 R+65.8 707 704 (100%) R+62.5 +3.3
Reagan ✓ R+69.5 R+52.1 710 701 (99%) R+38.4 +13.7
Cochran ✓ R+65.8 R+48.4 614 694 (113%) R+36.0 +12.4
Irion R+75.7 R+58.2 695 643 (93%) R+66.6 −8.3 *
Throckmorton R+83.4 R+66.0 667 618 (93%) R+69.9 −3.9 *
Briscoe ✓ R+79.8 R+62.4 590 592 (100%) R+70.1 −7.7
Glasscock ✓ R+88.4 R+70.9 571 557 (98%) R+78.8 −7.9
Cottle ✓ R+72.6 R+55.1 514 535 (104%) R+60.4 −5.2
Motley ✓ R+88.9 R+71.5 505 516 (102%) R+80.6 −9.1
Stonewall R+69.5 R+52.1 564 510 (90%) R+61.2 −9.1 *
Roberts ✓ R+92.3 R+74.9 443 453 (102%) R+84.8 −9.9
Sterling ✓ R+86.0 R+68.6 446 449 (101%) R+67.9 +0.6
Foard R+65.4 R+48.0 527 407 (77%) R+53.1 −5.1 *
McMullen ✓ R+84.6 R+67.1 372 371 (100%) R+72.2 −5.1
Kent ✓ R+76.4 R+59.0 348 368 (106%) R+63.3 −4.3
Terrell R+55.2 R+37.8 426 339 (80%) R+38.9 −1.2 *
Borden ✓ R+91.7 R+74.3 317 306 (97%) R+83.3 −9.1
Kenedy ✓ R+46.8 R+29.4 152 159 (105%) R+11.9 +17.5
King ✓ R+91.1 R+73.7 103 116 (113%) R+84.5 −10.8
Loving R+78.4 R+60.9 77 67 (87%) R+61.2 −0.3 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Alaska Senate Mary Peltola v Dan S. Sullivan · our forecast D+3.2, 71% Democrat · totals only

Counted213,604 of ~243,484 expected (88%) · 40 of 40 counties
Like-for-like gap4.0 pts better for the Democrat on 29,790 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+7.2
Raw (not like for like)R+1.4 counted, D+3.1 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
House District 6 R+16.8 D+0.2 8,623 7,858 (91%) R+5.0 −5.2 *
House District 9 D+2.3 D+19.4 8,587 7,562 (88%) D+1.7 −17.6 *
House District 25 ✓ R+37.0 R+20.0 7,560 7,505 (99%) R+23.4 −3.4
House District 8 R+51.1 R+34.0 7,908 7,030 (89%) R+45.4 −11.4 *
House District 35 ✓ D+5.3 D+22.3 6,972 6,916 (99%) D+17.8 −4.5
House District 23 R+19.4 R+2.4 7,676 6,821 (89%) R+9.6 −7.2 *
House District 24 R+33.4 R+16.4 7,299 6,677 (91%) R+24.1 −7.6 *
House District 29 R+46.5 R+29.5 7,607 6,651 (87%) R+37.0 −7.5 *
House District 26 ✓ R+56.0 R+39.0 6,879 6,595 (96%) R+43.7 −4.7
House District 34 R+21.6 R+4.6 7,208 6,552 (91%) R+6.6 −1.9 *
House District 7 R+45.9 R+28.9 6,979 6,468 (93%) R+32.2 −3.3 *
House District 11 R+2.4 D+14.6 7,135 6,272 (88%) R+3.4 −18.0 *
House District 16 D+15.3 D+32.3 6,967 6,259 (90%) D+21.5 −10.7 *
House District 3 D+15.4 D+32.4 7,983 6,221 (78%) D+25.2 −7.1 *
House District 28 R+50.4 R+33.4 6,706 6,208 (93%) R+38.3 −4.9 *
House District 21 D+8.4 D+25.4 6,532 6,174 (95%) D+17.2 −8.2 *
House District 15 R+2.6 D+14.4 6,730 6,169 (92%) D+3.2 −11.2 *
House District 36 R+22.8 R+5.8 6,890 5,960 (87%) R+2.7 +3.2 *
House District 33 R+52.9 R+35.9 6,434 5,941 (92%) R+40.1 −4.2 *
House District 10 R+3.4 D+13.6 6,331 5,801 (92%) D+4.0 −9.6 *
House District 27 R+57.9 R+40.9 6,455 5,750 (89%) R+43.9 −3.0 *
House District 4 D+39.2 D+56.2 6,650 5,745 (86%) D+52.8 −3.4 *
House District 30 R+46.1 R+29.0 7,522 5,528 (73%) R+41.8 −12.8 *
House District 12 D+1.3 D+18.3 6,181 5,263 (85%) D+8.9 −9.5 *
House District 17 D+34.9 D+51.9 5,557 5,018 (90%) D+46.7 −5.2 *
House District 13 D+1.3 D+18.3 5,462 4,691 (86%) D+15.3 −3.0 *
House District 1 R+18.2 R+1.2 6,181 4,654 (75%) R+10.4 −9.2 *
House District 20 D+12.7 D+29.7 5,233 4,554 (87%) D+24.5 −5.2 *
House District 31 R+3.5 D+13.5 5,045 4,546 (90%) D+12.4 −1.1 *
House District 14 D+22.2 D+39.2 5,345 4,526 (85%) D+31.1 −8.1 *
House District 2 D+0.4 D+17.4 6,840 4,372 (64%) D+14.1 −3.3 *
House District 5 R+13.3 D+3.7 5,769 3,966 (69%) D+2.4 −1.3 *
House District 22 D+1.3 D+18.3 3,947 3,572 (90%) D+21.6 +3.4 *
House District 39 ✓ D+12.7 D+29.7 2,907 3,496 (120%) D+50.8 +21.1
House District 19 D+17.8 D+34.8 3,603 3,309 (92%) D+37.5 +2.7 *
House District 32 R+33.0 R+16.0 4,226 3,137 (74%) R+12.0 +4.1 *
House District 37 R+7.0 D+10.1 3,102 2,935 (95%) D+23.3 +13.2 *
House District 38 ✓ D+13.1 D+30.1 2,694 2,792 (104%) D+58.7 +28.6
House District 40 ✓ R+10.7 D+6.3 2,291 2,486 (108%) D+27.6 +21.2
House District 18 R+16.4 D+0.6 3,466 1,624 (47%) D+17.3 +16.7 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Louisiana Senate Jamie Davis v Julia Letlow · our forecast R+4.4, 75% Republican · totals only

Counted1,466,069 of ~1,383,290 expected (106%) · 64 of 64 counties
Like-for-like gap0.9 pts better for the Democrat on 1,359,276 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+3.5
Raw (not like for like)R+1.8 counted, R+2.8 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
East Baton Rouge ✓ D+13.9 D+30.7 137,079 152,163 (111%) D+28.7 −2.0
Orleans ✓ D+61.6 D+78.4 111,117 131,987 (119%) D+77.2 −1.2
Jefferson ✓ R+17.1 R+0.4 118,183 130,861 (111%) D+7.4 +7.8
St. Tammany ✓ R+45.7 R+29.0 94,655 101,613 (107%) R+25.9 +3.1
Lafayette ✓ R+28.7 R+12.0 72,444 79,454 (110%) R+10.3 +1.6
Caddo ✓ D+6.8 D+23.6 66,349 71,509 (108%) D+17.9 −5.6
Calcasieu ✓ R+36.9 R+20.2 53,673 55,921 (104%) R+18.7 +1.5
Ouachita ✓ R+22.4 R+5.7 42,920 46,242 (108%) R+10.1 −4.4
Livingston ✓ R+69.0 R+52.2 42,271 43,528 (103%) R+45.1 +7.1
Ascension ✓ R+33.1 R+16.3 40,776 42,945 (105%) R+8.9 +7.4
Tangipahoa ✓ R+36.3 R+19.6 35,489 39,531 (111%) R+17.6 +2.0
Rapides ✓ R+40.3 R+23.5 39,079 37,494 (96%) R+16.3 +7.2
Bossier ✓ R+38.8 R+22.1 32,181 35,805 (111%) R+29.4 −7.3
Lafourche R+60.0 R+43.2 30,177 28,534 (95%) R+41.0 +2.2 *
Terrebonne ✓ R+50.3 R+33.6 27,366 28,417 (104%) R+34.1 −0.5
St. Landry ✓ R+21.8 R+5.1 26,942 26,435 (98%) D+3.1 +8.2
Iberia ✓ R+31.4 R+14.6 19,632 19,322 (98%) R+15.5 −0.9
St. Charles ✓ R+31.8 R+15.1 18,016 18,661 (104%) R+10.2 +4.9
Acadia R+63.4 R+46.7 19,647 18,050 (92%) R+47.9 −1.2 *
Vermilion ✓ R+63.3 R+46.5 17,953 17,365 (97%) R+44.0 +2.6
St. Martin ✓ R+32.3 R+15.6 17,144 17,081 (100%) R+21.9 −6.3
St. Mary ✓ R+26.8 R+10.0 14,461 14,875 (103%) R+13.3 −3.3
St. John the Baptist ✓ D+27.1 D+43.8 11,643 14,206 (122%) D+47.0 +3.2
Lincoln ✓ R+26.5 R+9.8 12,583 13,739 (109%) R+12.1 −2.4
Washington ✓ R+39.7 R+23.0 13,171 13,044 (99%) R+19.1 +3.9
Avoyelles ✓ R+45.3 R+28.5 11,422 12,247 (107%) R+25.0 +3.5
Iberville ✓ D+5.7 D+22.5 12,154 12,140 (100%) D+17.9 −4.5
Webster ✓ R+35.6 R+18.9 11,990 11,859 (99%) R+21.6 −2.7
St. Bernard ✓ R+27.9 R+11.2 10,739 11,508 (107%) D+0.1 +11.3
Natchitoches ✓ R+25.3 R+8.5 10,294 11,234 (109%) R+3.1 +5.4
Vernon ✓ R+74.4 R+57.7 11,239 11,022 (98%) R+52.2 +5.5
Jefferson Davis ✓ R+61.7 R+44.9 10,109 10,362 (103%) R+39.9 +5.0
Evangeline R+48.8 R+32.0 11,116 10,298 (93%) R+21.2 +10.8 *
Beauregard R+78.9 R+62.1 10,830 10,246 (95%) R+55.9 +6.2 *
West Baton Rouge ✓ R+3.7 D+13.1 10,104 10,030 (99%) D+10.5 −2.6
De Soto ✓ R+31.6 R+14.8 9,247 9,916 (107%) R+17.6 −2.7
St. James ✓ D+8.9 D+25.6 8,838 9,286 (105%) D+14.1 −11.5
Pointe Coupee R+30.4 R+13.7 9,631 8,347 (87%) R+6.2 +7.5 *
Plaquemines ✓ R+24.9 R+8.2 7,869 7,801 (99%) R+18.3 −10.2
Sabine ✓ R+67.8 R+51.0 7,488 7,776 (104%) R+54.5 −3.4
Union ✓ R+55.0 R+38.3 7,680 7,444 (97%) R+45.0 −6.7
East Feliciana ✓ R+24.7 R+7.9 7,430 7,385 (99%) R+8.3 −0.3
Assumption R+41.1 R+24.3 7,655 7,075 (92%) R+11.5 +12.8 *
Morehouse ✓ R+6.4 D+10.3 7,189 6,982 (97%) R+1.4 −11.7
Allen ✓ R+63.5 R+46.7 6,386 6,537 (102%) R+38.0 +8.7
Grant ✓ R+81.0 R+64.3 6,350 6,418 (101%) R+61.3 +3.0
Richland R+32.3 R+15.6 6,719 6,137 (91%) R+18.2 −2.6 *
Franklin R+36.1 R+19.3 6,149 5,771 (94%) R+26.8 −7.5 *
Concordia ✓ R+17.7 R+0.9 5,947 5,755 (97%) R+5.5 −4.5
Jackson ✓ R+44.1 R+27.3 5,670 5,588 (99%) R+28.8 −1.5
Bienville ✓ R+24.9 R+8.1 4,769 4,990 (105%) D+2.9 +11.0
Claiborne ✓ R+12.9 D+3.8 4,425 4,712 (106%) R+10.5 −14.3
West Feliciana ✓ R+28.4 R+11.6 4,277 4,709 (110%) R+20.2 −8.6
St. Helena ✓ D+1.1 D+17.8 4,170 4,564 (109%) D+16.8 −1.0
La Salle R+82.7 R+65.9 4,983 4,395 (88%) R+68.1 −2.1 *
Winn ✓ R+47.2 R+30.5 3,998 4,167 (104%) R+38.8 −8.3
Catahoula R+43.1 R+26.4 3,568 3,165 (89%) R+22.9 +3.5 *
Caldwell ✓ R+70.0 R+53.3 3,219 3,139 (98%) R+56.7 −3.4
Madison ✓ D+7.4 D+24.2 2,726 3,050 (112%) D+19.5 −4.7
West Carroll R+66.1 R+49.3 3,389 2,818 (83%) R+59.1 −9.8 *
Red River ✓ R+29.4 R+12.7 2,488 2,566 (103%) R+3.4 +9.3
East Carroll ✓ D+30.6 D+47.4 1,983 2,084 (105%) D+27.9 −19.4
Cameron R+88.1 R+71.3 2,447 1,957 (80%) R+72.0 −0.7 *
Tensas ✓ D+6.0 D+22.8 1,652 1,807 (109%) D+22.3 −0.5

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Ohio governor Amy Acton v Vivek Ramaswamy · our forecast D+4.6, 77% Democrat · count split by method

Counted4,595,782 of ~4,138,378 expected (111%) · 88 of 88 counties
Like-for-like gap2.3 pts better for the Democrat on 4,565,435 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+6.8
Raw (not like for like)D+7.9 counted, D+5.7 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Franklin ✓ D+28.4 D+44.0 425,246 505,844 (119%) D+45.9 +1.9
Cuyahoga ✓ D+31.5 D+47.1 409,773 475,835 (116%) D+46.9 −0.2
Hamilton ✓ D+14.9 D+30.5 303,600 342,523 (113%) D+28.6 −1.9
Summit ✓ D+7.0 D+22.6 199,835 225,392 (113%) D+25.8 +3.2
Montgomery ✓ D+0.5 D+16.1 186,826 202,332 (108%) D+18.0 +1.9
Lucas ✓ D+12.5 D+28.2 132,730 152,512 (115%) D+29.3 +1.1
Butler ✓ R+26.3 R+10.6 128,249 146,636 (114%) R+7.7 +2.9
Stark ✓ R+21.9 R+6.3 133,502 144,606 (108%) R+2.0 +4.3
Lorain ✓ R+5.7 D+9.9 111,679 129,692 (116%) D+14.0 +4.1
Delaware ✓ R+6.6 D+9.0 98,858 117,101 (118%) D+8.3 −0.8
Warren ✓ R+31.5 R+15.9 101,415 112,794 (111%) R+15.5 +0.4
Lake ✓ R+14.3 D+1.3 94,219 105,775 (112%) D+5.1 +3.8
Clermont ✓ R+35.8 R+20.2 80,041 89,360 (112%) R+17.7 +2.4
Mahoning ✓ R+9.4 D+6.2 85,818 88,421 (103%) D+11.8 +5.6
Medina ✓ R+24.8 R+9.2 77,939 85,394 (110%) R+6.2 +3.0
Trumbull ✓ R+16.8 R+1.2 72,972 74,012 (101%) D+7.1 +8.3
Licking ✓ R+30.0 R+14.4 66,340 73,973 (112%) R+8.4 +6.0
Greene ✓ R+19.8 R+4.2 65,895 73,891 (112%) R+3.9 +0.3
Fairfield ✓ R+24.0 R+8.4 59,231 68,161 (115%) R+3.1 +5.3
Portage ✓ R+15.5 D+0.1 60,449 65,950 (109%) D+6.3 +6.2
Wood ✓ R+10.1 D+5.5 48,459 54,502 (112%) D+9.1 +3.6
Clark ✓ R+29.5 R+13.9 44,272 47,915 (108%) R+10.4 +3.5
Miami ✓ R+45.1 R+29.5 42,161 45,524 (108%) R+27.8 +1.7
Geauga ✓ R+24.1 R+8.5 42,679 45,075 (106%) R+8.1 +0.4
Richland ✓ R+42.3 R+26.7 41,716 43,948 (105%) R+24.8 +1.9
Wayne ✓ R+39.2 R+23.6 38,431 41,259 (107%) R+22.1 +1.5
Allen ✓ R+44.1 R+28.5 32,657 35,230 (108%) R+29.9 −1.4
Columbiana ✓ R+49.0 R+33.4 35,534 34,746 (98%) R+28.8 +4.6
Ashtabula ✓ R+28.4 R+12.8 30,838 32,483 (105%) R+6.6 +6.1
Tuscarawas ✓ R+43.3 R+27.6 30,339 31,981 (105%) R+21.3 +6.4
Erie ✓ R+14.1 D+1.5 28,887 31,876 (110%) D+3.8 +2.3
Union ✓ R+29.6 R+14.0 25,395 31,174 (123%) R+10.5 +3.5
Hancock ✓ R+38.4 R+22.8 27,102 28,836 (106%) R+20.3 +2.5
Muskingum ✓ R+43.9 R+28.3 27,302 28,696 (105%) R+24.2 +4.1
Ross ✓ R+39.3 R+23.7 22,586 24,602 (109%) R+19.2 +4.5
Knox ✓ R+44.9 R+29.3 23,073 24,065 (104%) R+29.2 +0.1
Washington ✓ R+43.7 R+28.1 22,750 22,641 (100%) R+22.1 +6.1
Sandusky ✓ R+30.9 R+15.2 21,343 22,571 (106%) R+10.4 +4.9
Pickaway ✓ R+48.5 R+32.9 19,555 22,083 (113%) R+27.5 +5.4
Belmont ✓ R+47.3 R+31.7 22,525 21,949 (97%) R+26.8 +4.9
Jefferson R+43.9 R+28.3 22,884 21,718 (95%) R+24.2 +4.0 *
Scioto ✓ R+47.9 R+32.3 21,067 21,507 (102%) R+25.2 +7.1
Athens ✓ D+10.7 D+26.4 19,075 20,342 (107%) D+34.0 +7.7
Darke ✓ R+65.3 R+49.7 19,750 19,986 (101%) R+51.6 −1.9
Marion ✓ R+41.4 R+25.7 19,102 19,897 (104%) R+18.7 +7.0
Ashland ✓ R+49.9 R+34.3 18,400 19,863 (108%) R+32.1 +2.3
Huron ✓ R+44.0 R+28.4 18,396 19,644 (107%) R+22.2 +6.2
Auglaize ✓ R+64.5 R+48.9 18,663 19,220 (103%) R+51.3 −2.4
Ottawa ✓ R+25.1 R+9.4 18,483 19,203 (104%) R+8.7 +0.7
Shelby ✓ R+64.8 R+49.2 18,021 18,920 (105%) R+51.3 −2.1
Seneca ✓ R+37.5 R+21.9 17,986 18,717 (104%) R+15.5 +6.3
Lawrence ✓ R+50.5 R+34.9 17,490 18,027 (103%) R+27.7 +7.2
Mercer ✓ R+66.7 R+51.1 17,779 18,003 (101%) R+55.3 −4.2
Logan ✓ R+56.2 R+40.6 16,449 17,775 (108%) R+38.7 +1.9
Fulton ✓ R+42.4 R+26.8 16,332 17,343 (106%) R+24.1 +2.7
Madison ✓ R+43.6 R+28.0 14,113 16,243 (115%) R+23.6 +4.4
Champaign ✓ R+50.7 R+35.1 14,348 15,525 (108%) R+30.6 +4.5
Clinton ✓ R+54.6 R+39.0 14,077 15,433 (110%) R+37.5 +1.5
Putnam ✓ R+68.7 R+53.1 14,999 15,368 (102%) R+56.5 −3.4
Preble ✓ R+59.1 R+43.5 15,689 15,302 (98%) R+41.1 +2.4
Brown ✓ R+61.5 R+45.9 14,132 14,946 (106%) R+40.8 +5.1
Crawford ✓ R+52.9 R+37.3 14,803 14,678 (99%) R+33.8 +3.5
Defiance ✓ R+39.8 R+24.2 13,334 14,556 (109%) R+21.7 +2.5
Highland ✓ R+63.3 R+47.7 13,110 14,245 (109%) R+43.6 +4.1
Morrow ✓ R+55.7 R+40.1 13,288 14,105 (106%) R+37.4 +2.7
Williams ✓ R+48.2 R+32.6 12,874 13,456 (105%) R+30.4 +2.2
Guernsey ✓ R+52.0 R+36.4 12,183 12,692 (104%) R+31.0 +5.4
Perry ✓ R+54.5 R+38.9 11,899 12,479 (105%) R+31.7 +7.2
Coshocton ✓ R+52.2 R+36.6 11,276 11,707 (104%) R+30.7 +5.9
Henry ✓ R+46.7 R+31.1 10,386 11,157 (107%) R+29.8 +1.3
Van Wert ✓ R+58.5 R+42.9 10,135 10,496 (104%) R+43.5 −0.6
Carroll ✓ R+54.7 R+39.1 10,115 10,255 (101%) R+36.7 +2.4
Wyandot ✓ R+51.2 R+35.6 8,095 9,838 (122%) R+32.9 +2.7
Jackson ✓ R+58.0 R+42.4 8,884 9,734 (110%) R+33.3 +9.2
Hocking ✓ R+44.3 R+28.7 9,492 9,691 (102%) R+21.8 +6.8
Hardin ✓ R+54.6 R+39.0 8,992 9,080 (101%) R+34.6 +4.5
Fayette ✓ R+55.1 R+39.5 8,389 9,053 (108%) R+36.7 +2.8
Paulding ✓ R+56.2 R+40.6 6,460 8,922 (138%) R+35.9 +4.7
Adams ✓ R+65.7 R+50.1 8,743 8,891 (102%) R+42.9 +7.2
Holmes ✓ R+69.1 R+53.5 8,620 8,852 (103%) R+55.7 −2.2
Gallia R+59.4 R+43.8 9,109 8,629 (95%) R+40.3 +3.5 *
Pike ✓ R+53.7 R+38.0 7,815 8,520 (109%) R+30.4 +7.6
Meigs ✓ R+56.9 R+41.3 7,464 7,518 (101%) R+36.1 +5.2
Harrison ✓ R+55.2 R+39.6 5,172 5,010 (97%) R+34.0 +5.6
Morgan ✓ R+53.2 R+37.6 4,811 4,783 (99%) R+32.6 +5.0
Monroe ✓ R+59.7 R+44.1 4,857 4,761 (98%) R+38.1 +6.0
Noble ✓ R+64.6 R+49.0 4,602 4,440 (96%) R+44.9 +4.1
Vinton ✓ R+58.6 R+43.0 4,014 3,892 (97%) R+36.5 +6.5

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

New Hampshire governor Cinde Warmington v Kelly Ayotte · our forecast R+5.6, 80% Republican · totals only

Counted631,333 of ~620,511 expected (102%) · 10 of 10 counties
Like-for-like gap1.3 pts better for the Democrat on 631,333 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+4.3
Raw (not like for like)R+4.3 counted, R+5.6 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Hillsborough ✓ D+2.9 R+5.5 172,224 175,703 (102%) R+4.8 +0.7
Rockingham ✓ R+2.4 R+10.8 154,290 157,180 (102%) R+11.0 −0.2
Merrimack ✓ D+5.2 R+3.2 70,793 72,031 (102%) D+0.5 +3.7
Strafford ✓ D+12.0 D+3.7 56,578 57,652 (102%) D+8.5 +4.8
Grafton ✓ D+19.8 D+11.5 42,732 43,303 (101%) D+12.6 +1.1
Cheshire ✓ D+9.9 D+1.6 33,986 34,188 (101%) D+10.2 +8.6
Belknap ✓ R+13.0 R+21.4 30,781 30,474 (99%) R+25.2 −3.8
Carroll ✓ R+1.7 R+10.1 27,124 28,138 (104%) R+13.0 −2.9
Sullivan ✓ R+0.7 R+9.0 19,108 19,306 (101%) R+6.1 +3.0
Coos ✓ R+13.7 R+22.0 12,895 13,358 (104%) R+22.9 −0.9

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Maine Senate Troy Jackson v Susan Collins · our forecast D+5.7, 81% Democrat · totals only

Counted702,178 of ~674,981 expected (104%) · 16 of 16 counties
Like-for-like gap0.4 pts better for the Republican on 654,496 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameD+5.3
Raw (not like for like)D+5.8 counted, D+6.3 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Cumberland ✓ D+35.8 D+34.2 161,851 174,891 (108%) D+34.8 +0.6
York ✓ D+10.9 D+9.4 104,428 112,472 (108%) D+10.9 +1.6
Penobscot ✓ R+10.4 R+12.0 68,647 68,920 (100%) R+12.5 −0.5
Kennebec ✓ R+2.3 R+3.8 60,346 62,756 (104%) R+6.5 −2.6
Androscoggin ✓ R+5.6 R+7.2 47,019 50,398 (107%) R+8.7 −1.5
Hancock ✓ D+12.2 D+10.7 30,535 31,503 (103%) D+9.6 −1.1
Oxford ✓ R+12.4 R+14.0 27,735 31,004 (112%) R+17.6 −3.7
Aroostook R+25.7 R+27.3 28,632 26,443 (92%) R+30.0 −2.7 *
Somerset ✓ R+26.6 R+28.1 22,816 22,537 (99%) R+31.2 −3.1
Sagadahoc ✓ D+17.1 D+15.5 20,842 22,082 (106%) D+15.0 −0.6
Knox ✓ D+19.1 D+17.5 22,256 21,629 (97%) D+17.0 −0.5
Lincoln ✓ D+11.7 D+10.2 20,946 20,966 (100%) D+8.8 −1.4
Waldo ✓ D+3.8 D+2.3 21,007 20,562 (98%) D+4.4 +2.2
Franklin ✓ R+7.8 R+9.3 14,928 14,776 (99%) R+11.8 −2.5
Washington R+23.0 R+24.6 14,777 13,473 (91%) R+24.7 −0.2 *
Piscataquis R+28.7 R+30.2 8,216 7,766 (95%) R+35.9 −5.7 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Idaho Senate Todd Achilles v Jim Risch · our forecast R+12.6, 82% Republican · totals only

Counted710,724 of ~1,183,505 expected (60%) · 44 of 44 counties
Like-for-like gap14.3 pts better for the Republican on 2,450 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+26.9
Raw (not like for like)R+23.0 counted, R+12.4 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Ada R+10.3 I+12.5 370,458 226,077 (61%) I+2.9 −9.6 *
Canyon R+46.6 R+23.8 116,658 77,045 (66%) R+31.9 −8.1 *
Kootenai R+51.8 R+29.0 124,592 74,167 (60%) R+46.0 −17.0 *
Bonneville R+45.4 R+22.5 70,974 42,902 (60%) R+27.1 −4.6 *
Bannock R+25.1 R+2.3 51,002 31,330 (61%) R+10.8 −8.5 *
Twin Falls R+48.8 R+26.0 45,986 27,748 (60%) R+31.5 −5.6 *
Bonner R+46.1 R+23.3 41,588 23,590 (57%) R+37.3 −14.0 *
Bingham R+59.6 R+36.8 24,768 15,298 (62%) R+43.0 −6.2 *
Latah R+8.0 I+14.8 29,946 15,230 (51%) R+9.6 −24.4 *
Nez Perce R+38.6 R+15.8 26,962 14,864 (55%) R+31.4 −15.6 *
Jefferson R+73.3 R+50.4 18,178 11,547 (64%) R+57.4 −7.0 *
Madison R+64.3 R+41.5 16,672 11,468 (69%) R+49.4 −8.0 *
Blaine D+31.7 I+54.5 19,440 11,453 (59%) I+42.1 −12.3 *
Payette R+62.9 R+40.1 15,218 8,686 (57%) R+51.7 −11.7 *
Gem R+66.0 R+43.2 15,262 8,196 (54%) R+56.6 −13.4 *
Idaho R+67.8 R+45.0 14,940 7,897 (53%) R+60.6 −15.7 *
Elmore R+48.5 R+25.7 13,260 7,518 (57%) R+35.1 −9.4 *
Cassia R+69.1 R+46.2 11,604 6,778 (58%) R+54.9 −8.6 *
Valley R+18.6 I+4.2 10,464 6,109 (58%) R+2.6 −6.8 *
Jerome R+53.7 R+30.9 9,716 6,086 (63%) R+37.3 −6.4 *
Teton D+6.8 I+29.7 9,384 6,012 (64%) I+14.0 −15.6 *
Minidoka R+63.3 R+40.4 9,442 5,909 (63%) R+48.7 −8.2 *
Boundary R+65.4 R+42.6 10,478 5,532 (53%) R+58.8 −16.2 *
Fremont R+69.0 R+46.1 8,524 4,850 (57%) R+55.0 −8.9 *
Franklin R+77.6 R+54.8 8,674 4,723 (54%) R+57.4 −2.6 *
Shoshone R+49.4 R+26.6 8,256 4,519 (55%) R+43.3 −16.8 *
Gooding R+60.4 R+37.6 8,102 4,348 (54%) R+46.5 −8.9 *
Washington R+61.5 R+38.7 7,848 4,335 (55%) R+54.4 −15.6 *
Benewah R+61.4 R+38.6 6,908 4,000 (58%) R+60.9 −22.3 *
Boise R+54.2 R+31.4 6,888 3,952 (57%) R+39.8 −8.4 *
Lemhi R+54.9 R+32.1 7,320 3,812 (52%) R+43.9 −11.8 *
Owyhee R+67.6 R+44.8 6,580 3,584 (54%) R+55.6 −10.8 *
Clearwater R+62.8 R+40.0 6,242 3,219 (52%) R+56.8 −16.8 *
Caribou R+71.2 R+48.4 4,240 2,504 (59%) R+59.5 −11.1 *
Power ✓ R+45.1 R+22.2 2,201 2,450 (111%) R+36.5 −14.3
Bear Lake R+77.1 R+54.2 4,532 2,390 (53%) R+70.7 −16.5 *
Adams R+54.5 R+31.6 4,040 2,171 (54%) R+42.2 −10.5 *
Custer R+53.3 R+30.5 4,072 2,024 (50%) R+43.0 −12.5 *
Oneida R+75.9 R+53.1 3,254 1,631 (50%) R+65.5 −12.3 *
Lewis R+64.9 R+42.1 2,722 1,446 (53%) R+59.9 −17.8 *
Lincoln R+56.0 R+33.2 2,642 1,398 (53%) R+37.3 −4.1 *
Butte R+72.5 R+49.7 2,018 1,129 (56%) R+57.9 −8.2 *
Camas R+54.1 R+31.3 1,034 543 (53%) R+32.8 −1.5 *
Clark R+69.1 R+46.3 416 254 (61%) R+61.0 −14.8 *

Gap: + is better for the independent than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Florida Senate (special) Angie Nixon v Ashley Moody · our forecast R+5.9, 83% Republican · totals only

Counted8,276,945 of ~7,796,916 expected (106%) · 67 of 67 counties
Like-for-like gap2.6 pts better for the Democrat on 8,190,061 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+3.3
Raw (not like for like)R+2.9 counted, R+5.5 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Miami-Dade ✓ R+11.5 R+4.0 716,322 784,728 (110%) D+7.1 +11.1
Broward ✓ D+17.0 D+24.4 600,976 660,314 (110%) D+32.3 +7.8
Palm Beach ✓ D+0.8 D+8.2 545,550 570,658 (105%) D+10.3 +2.0
Hillsborough ✓ R+3.1 D+4.4 484,916 517,016 (107%) D+9.0 +4.6
Orange ✓ D+13.6 D+21.0 408,617 471,829 (115%) D+28.5 +7.5
Pinellas ✓ R+5.2 D+2.2 424,549 403,626 (95%) D+0.7 −1.6
Duval ✓ R+1.5 D+6.0 330,303 356,347 (108%) D+10.8 +4.9
Lee ✓ R+28.4 R+20.9 276,081 304,021 (110%) R+21.4 −0.4
Brevard ✓ R+20.8 R+13.4 268,335 270,072 (101%) R+14.3 −0.9
Polk ✓ R+20.7 R+13.2 230,726 257,911 (112%) R+6.7 +6.6
Pasco ✓ R+25.2 R+17.8 225,549 240,319 (107%) R+14.2 +3.5
Volusia ✓ R+21.8 R+14.3 226,962 236,704 (104%) R+15.6 −1.3
Sarasota ✓ R+18.2 R+10.7 219,514 223,509 (102%) R+16.5 −5.7
Seminole ✓ R+3.6 D+3.9 183,816 195,588 (106%) D+6.7 +2.8
Manatee ✓ R+23.5 R+16.0 172,183 182,260 (106%) R+19.3 −3.3
Lake ✓ R+24.7 R+17.2 160,572 178,072 (111%) R+18.4 −1.2
Collier ✓ R+33.0 R+25.6 164,265 171,729 (105%) R+28.7 −3.2
Marion ✓ R+31.7 R+24.2 156,427 163,936 (105%) R+25.8 −1.6
St. Johns ✓ R+31.3 R+23.8 145,011 156,111 (108%) R+26.2 −2.4
St. Lucie ✓ R+9.1 R+1.6 122,361 139,080 (114%) D+2.4 +4.0
Osceola ✓ R+1.5 D+6.0 103,173 131,845 (128%) D+18.4 +12.4
Leon ✓ D+21.7 D+29.2 118,216 125,659 (106%) D+31.4 +2.2
Escambia ✓ R+19.5 R+12.1 116,090 116,440 (100%) R+9.7 +2.4
Alachua ✓ D+20.9 D+28.4 96,195 105,606 (110%) D+33.1 +4.7
Charlotte ✓ R+34.0 R+26.5 92,933 100,544 (108%) R+33.4 −6.9
Sumter ✓ R+37.6 R+30.2 89,668 95,037 (106%) R+43.2 −13.1
Clay ✓ R+39.3 R+31.8 90,333 93,314 (103%) R+30.1 +1.7
Hernando ✓ R+37.1 R+29.6 80,598 80,228 (100%) R+29.3 +0.3
Okaloosa ✓ R+42.4 R+34.9 81,166 77,573 (96%) R+35.0 −0.1
Indian River ✓ R+27.3 R+19.9 77,624 77,502 (100%) R+22.9 −3.0
Martin ✓ R+31.1 R+23.6 77,907 76,295 (98%) R+26.6 −3.0
Citrus ✓ R+45.9 R+38.5 75,985 75,121 (99%) R+43.5 −5.0
Santa Rosa ✓ R+50.9 R+43.5 75,855 74,557 (98%) R+43.0 +0.4
Bay ✓ R+47.3 R+39.9 67,243 70,329 (105%) R+39.8 +0.1
Flagler ✓ R+28.3 R+20.8 58,886 63,900 (109%) R+24.9 −4.1
Nassau ✓ R+46.9 R+39.4 47,891 50,549 (106%) R+42.1 −2.6
Highlands ✓ R+40.8 R+33.4 39,922 39,742 (100%) R+35.5 −2.2
Walton ✓ R+57.8 R+50.4 34,975 35,265 (101%) R+53.3 −2.9
Monroe R+18.3 R+10.9 34,116 32,270 (95%) R+8.9 +2.0 *
Putnam ✓ R+47.9 R+40.4 26,656 26,505 (99%) R+39.0 +1.4
Columbia ✓ R+50.2 R+42.8 23,769 23,022 (97%) R+42.2 +0.6
Levy ✓ R+50.3 R+42.8 17,954 18,154 (101%) R+44.0 −1.1
Gadsden ✓ D+30.7 D+38.2 17,463 17,821 (102%) D+37.6 −0.6
Suwannee ✓ R+61.0 R+53.5 16,400 15,867 (97%) R+54.3 −0.8
Jackson ✓ R+46.1 R+38.7 16,355 15,698 (96%) R+39.4 −0.7
Wakulla ✓ R+44.4 R+36.9 15,113 15,123 (100%) R+34.4 +2.5
Okeechobee ✓ R+53.9 R+46.4 10,934 11,129 (102%) R+40.4 +6.0
Hendry ✓ R+38.4 R+30.9 8,293 10,088 (122%) R+11.6 +19.3
Baker R+73.2 R+65.7 10,736 9,826 (92%) R+67.2 −1.4 *
Bradford R+57.4 R+49.9 10,290 9,715 (94%) R+49.9 +0.0 *
Desoto ✓ R+43.0 R+35.5 8,714 9,120 (105%) R+29.6 +5.9
Washington ✓ R+65.4 R+58.0 9,147 9,040 (99%) R+59.8 −1.8
Gilchrist ✓ R+68.0 R+60.6 7,889 7,804 (99%) R+64.0 −3.4
Madison ✓ R+28.9 R+21.5 7,020 6,999 (100%) R+22.6 −1.1
Taylor R+59.7 R+52.3 7,645 6,994 (91%) R+52.6 −0.3 *
Jefferson ✓ R+18.6 R+11.2 7,152 6,989 (98%) R+15.8 −4.7
Gulf ✓ R+54.2 R+46.8 6,438 6,716 (104%) R+53.6 −6.8
Holmes R+80.4 R+72.9 6,790 6,207 (91%) R+75.5 −2.6 *
Hardee ✓ R+56.4 R+49.0 5,552 6,032 (109%) R+37.3 +11.7
Dixie R+70.5 R+63.1 6,193 5,617 (91%) R+66.1 −3.0 *
Franklin R+43.8 R+36.4 5,465 5,051 (92%) R+36.0 +0.3 *
Calhoun R+67.7 R+60.2 4,868 4,299 (88%) R+61.2 −1.0 *
Union R+68.4 R+60.9 4,567 4,286 (94%) R+62.4 −1.5 *
Hamilton ✓ R+39.0 R+31.6 4,320 4,149 (96%) R+30.7 +0.9
Glades ✓ R+53.3 R+45.8 3,839 3,812 (99%) R+42.2 +3.6
Liberty ✓ R+67.0 R+59.5 2,622 2,657 (101%) R+60.6 −1.1
Lafayette R+76.1 R+68.6 2,921 2,619 (90%) R+72.5 −3.9 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Wyoming governor Kenneth Casner v Eric Barlow · our forecast R+14.9, 85% Republican · totals only

Counted187,387 of ~194,000 expected (97%) · 23 of 23 counties
Like-for-like gap47.9 pts better for the Republican on 117,836 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+62.7
Raw (not like for like)R+53.9 counted, R+14.0 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Laramie ✓ R+32.1 R+1.2 29,911 30,174 (101%) R+48.9 −47.6
Natrona ✓ R+48.2 R+17.3 22,491 21,973 (98%) R+53.1 −35.8
Albany ✓ R+3.1 D+27.7 12,600 13,146 (104%) R+39.1 −66.8
Fremont ✓ R+36.9 R+6.1 13,398 12,886 (96%) R+54.4 −48.3
Sheridan ✓ R+49.4 R+18.6 12,191 12,062 (99%) R+59.2 −40.6
Park R+58.7 R+27.8 12,698 11,902 (94%) R+55.8 −28.0 *
Campbell R+76.3 R+45.5 12,262 11,132 (91%) R+68.9 −23.4 *
Sweetwater R+52.8 R+21.9 11,917 11,013 (92%) R+49.8 −27.9 *
Teton ✓ D+34.7 D+65.6 10,146 10,383 (102%) R+25.5 −91.1
Lincoln ✓ R+67.7 R+36.8 7,482 7,331 (98%) R+60.3 −23.5
Uinta R+62.9 R+32.1 6,596 6,176 (94%) R+58.2 −26.1 *
Goshen R+60.5 R+29.7 4,813 4,472 (93%) R+59.9 −30.2 *
Converse R+72.9 R+42.0 4,977 4,359 (88%) R+59.6 −17.6 *
Carbon R+57.6 R+26.7 4,703 4,247 (90%) R+58.6 −31.9 *
Big Horn ✓ R+71.9 R+41.1 4,239 4,106 (97%) R+66.2 −25.2
Sublette ✓ R+60.6 R+29.8 3,544 3,693 (104%) R+67.0 −37.2
Johnson R+63.1 R+32.2 3,865 3,575 (92%) R+68.0 −35.8 *
Platte R+64.9 R+34.1 3,921 3,487 (89%) R+55.9 −21.8 *
Crook R+77.4 R+46.5 3,248 3,047 (94%) R+67.5 −21.0 *
Washakie R+63.7 R+32.8 3,045 2,749 (90%) R+65.5 −32.7 *
Weston R+76.6 R+45.8 2,735 2,490 (91%) R+70.5 −24.7 *
Hot Springs ✓ R+60.8 R+30.0 2,171 2,082 (96%) R+62.2 −32.2
Niobrara R+80.7 R+49.9 1,047 902 (86%) R+68.2 −18.3 *

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

Mississippi Senate Scott Colom v Cindy Hyde-Smith · our forecast R+7.0, 85% Republican · totals only

Counted953,314 of ~894,886 expected (107%) · 82 of 82 counties
Like-for-like gap4.0 pts better for the Democrat on 827,296 votes in complete counties
If the rest runs the sameR+3.0
Raw (not like for like)D+0.3 counted, R+4.5 expected skewed by the order votes are counted in
County2024 presidentExpected tonightExpected votesCountedCounted marginGap
Hinds ✓ D+46.1 D+62.0 63,276 77,465 (122%) D+60.8 −1.2
Harrison ✓ R+28.9 R+13.0 55,327 58,850 (106%) R+3.7 +9.3
DeSoto R+24.1 R+8.2 57,629 54,184 (94%) D+6.1 +14.3 *
Rankin ✓ R+47.1 R+31.2 50,776 51,331 (101%) R+25.6 +5.6
Madison ✓ R+17.3 R+1.4 40,598 45,766 (113%) D+0.8 +2.2
Jackson R+39.9 R+24.0 38,193 35,432 (93%) R+14.7 +9.3 *
Lee ✓ R+38.8 R+22.9 25,752 24,993 (97%) R+17.6 +5.4
Forrest ✓ R+17.9 R+2.0 20,744 22,433 (108%) D+10.3 +12.4
Lauderdale ✓ R+21.2 R+5.3 19,972 21,874 (110%) R+1.7 +3.6
Lowndes ✓ R+8.2 D+7.7 17,800 21,284 (120%) D+15.9 +8.1
Lamar ✓ R+48.8 R+32.9 20,529 21,020 (102%) R+25.8 +7.0
Jones ✓ R+46.8 R+30.9 20,226 20,308 (100%) R+23.6 +7.3
Lafayette ✓ R+21.8 R+5.9 17,059 17,223 (101%) D+1.2 +7.0
Hancock ✓ R+58.7 R+42.8 15,431 16,732 (108%) R+41.3 +1.5
Pearl River R+66.7 R+50.8 17,979 16,526 (92%) R+47.5 +3.4 *
Oktibbeha ✓ R+0.3 D+15.6 13,154 15,706 (119%) D+22.4 +6.8
Warren ✓ R+4.0 D+11.9 13,334 14,643 (110%) D+13.4 +1.5
Pike ✓ R+3.5 D+12.4 11,284 12,900 (114%) D+17.7 +5.3
Monroe ✓ R+35.9 R+20.0 11,710 12,765 (109%) R+13.4 +6.6
Lincoln ✓ R+45.4 R+29.5 11,515 12,391 (108%) R+30.0 −0.6
Marshall ✓ R+7.3 D+8.6 10,919 11,534 (106%) D+15.9 +7.3
Panola ✓ R+14.8 D+1.1 10,510 11,364 (108%) D+12.3 +11.3
Washington ✓ D+35.0 D+50.9 10,596 11,191 (106%) D+56.2 +5.3
Alcorn ✓ R+68.3 R+52.5 11,013 11,164 (101%) R+52.8 −0.3
Pontotoc ✓ R+67.7 R+51.8 10,252 10,206 (100%) R+47.2 +4.6
Bolivar ✓ D+23.7 D+39.6 7,604 10,143 (133%) D+41.4 +1.8
Copiah ✓ R+6.1 D+9.8 8,501 9,869 (116%) D+13.5 +3.6
Adams ✓ D+13.9 D+29.8 8,692 9,730 (112%) D+28.1 −1.8
Tate ✓ R+43.8 R+27.9 9,372 9,215 (98%) R+19.4 +8.5
Union ✓ R+70.1 R+54.2 9,093 8,939 (98%) R+52.5 +1.7
Clay ✓ D+10.4 D+26.3 6,600 8,619 (131%) D+34.0 +7.7
Marion ✓ R+41.6 R+25.7 8,153 8,542 (105%) R+20.9 +4.8
Simpson ✓ R+36.7 R+20.8 8,085 8,377 (104%) R+19.1 +1.7
Leflore ✓ D+38.4 D+54.3 6,865 8,221 (120%) D+51.0 −3.4
Neshoba ✓ R+50.9 R+35.0 7,915 8,061 (102%) R+28.2 +6.8
Scott ✓ R+24.0 R+8.1 7,208 7,903 (110%) R+1.4 +6.6
Grenada ✓ R+16.3 R+0.4 7,117 7,553 (106%) D+3.1 +3.5
Yazoo ✓ R+2.4 D+13.5 6,537 7,549 (115%) D+19.3 +5.8
Itawamba ✓ R+80.0 R+64.1 7,740 7,435 (96%) R+65.8 −1.7
Tippah ✓ R+67.1 R+51.2 6,989 7,372 (105%) R+48.2 +3.0
Prentiss ✓ R+66.0 R+50.1 7,565 7,268 (96%) R+47.7 +2.4
Winston ✓ R+18.2 R+2.4 6,110 7,218 (118%) D+4.1 +6.5
Wayne ✓ R+32.7 R+16.8 6,645 7,067 (106%) R+9.3 +7.5
Sunflower ✓ D+35.5 D+51.4 5,739 7,030 (122%) D+51.8 +0.4
Newton ✓ R+43.3 R+27.4 6,794 6,860 (101%) R+24.4 +3.0
George R+78.8 R+62.9 8,066 6,759 (84%) R+63.6 −0.7 *
Holmes ✓ D+62.1 D+78.0 4,904 6,465 (132%) D+72.7 −5.2
Leake ✓ R+23.4 R+7.5 6,107 6,432 (105%) R+4.4 +3.2
Chickasaw ✓ R+13.7 D+2.2 5,272 6,338 (120%) D+8.0 +5.8
Tishomingo ✓ R+78.9 R+63.0 6,595 6,300 (96%) R+64.2 −1.2
Jasper ✓ R+5.0 D+10.9 5,750 6,163 (107%) D+13.8 +2.9
Coahoma ✓ D+39.8 D+55.7 4,948 6,066 (123%) D+57.0 +1.3
Attala ✓ R+23.3 R+7.4 5,613 5,904 (105%) R+2.6 +4.8
Covington R+33.3 R+17.4 6,457 5,760 (89%) R+15.5 +1.9 *
Clarke ✓ R+35.2 R+19.3 5,517 5,630 (102%) R+13.0 +6.3
Stone ✓ R+58.0 R+42.1 5,771 5,508 (95%) R+39.5 +2.6
Smith ✓ R+60.7 R+44.8 5,594 5,466 (98%) R+43.3 +1.5
Walthall ✓ R+26.9 R+11.0 4,758 5,221 (110%) R+8.4 +2.7
Amite ✓ R+32.8 R+16.9 4,966 5,120 (103%) R+18.1 −1.1
Yalobusha ✓ R+20.9 R+5.0 4,283 4,810 (112%) D+1.9 +6.9
Lawrence ✓ R+36.6 R+20.7 4,411 4,619 (105%) R+19.4 +1.3
Calhoun ✓ R+48.0 R+32.1 4,397 4,587 (104%) R+27.1 +5.0
Jefferson Davis ✓ D+13.7 D+29.6 3,919 4,558 (116%) D+30.9 +1.3
Tallahatchie ✓ D+5.9 D+21.8 3,652 4,377 (120%) D+29.6 +7.7
Noxubee ✓ D+47.6 D+63.5 3,242 4,287 (132%) D+62.7 −0.8
Carroll ✓ R+44.3 R+28.4 3,785 4,063 (107%) R+24.9 +3.5
Webster ✓ R+65.2 R+49.3 3,713 3,889 (105%) R+48.7 +0.6
Perry R+60.4 R+44.5 4,036 3,818 (95%) R+37.7 +6.8 *
Montgomery ✓ R+20.8 R+4.9 3,224 3,626 (112%) R+0.1 +4.8
Greene R+69.8 R+53.9 4,117 3,539 (86%) R+50.9 +3.0 *
Kemper ✓ D+16.9 D+32.8 2,978 3,413 (115%) D+33.5 +0.7
Humphreys ✓ D+41.9 D+57.8 2,527 3,382 (134%) D+57.5 −0.3
Claiborne ✓ D+67.6 D+83.4 2,580 3,329 (129%) D+75.8 −7.7
Franklin ✓ R+39.8 R+23.9 2,963 3,317 (112%) R+23.2 +0.7
Jefferson ✓ D+66.3 D+82.2 2,404 3,082 (128%) D+75.3 −6.9
Choctaw ✓ R+49.3 R+33.4 2,835 3,052 (108%) R+30.5 +2.9
Benton ✓ R+31.4 R+15.5 2,827 2,818 (100%) R+8.1 +7.4
Wilkinson ✓ D+25.3 D+41.2 2,136 2,772 (130%) D+40.6 −0.6
Tunica ✓ D+38.9 D+54.8 1,944 2,333 (120%) D+51.7 −3.0
Quitman ✓ D+30.7 D+46.6 1,951 2,205 (113%) D+51.3 +4.7
Sharkey ✓ D+36.8 D+52.7 1,287 1,597 (124%) D+36.8 −15.9
Issaquena ✓ R+1.4 D+14.4 453 453 (100%) D+4.0 −10.5

Gap: + is better for the Democrat than we expected, − better for the Republican. ≡ compared method by method; * whole county, not yet complete (skewed by count order, left out of the race's read).

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