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Umfragen bewegen → Alle Werkzeuge →80 Notizen zu den Umfragen (zehn Ländern), die neuesten zuerst. Die jüngste vom 2. November 2026: „When the polls agree too much: herding, and how our forecast guards against it“
Jede neue Umfrage im Vergleich mit den üblichen Werten des Instituts und seiner Bilanz, der Wochenüberblick und Porträts der Institute. In der Redaktion aus unseren Daten geschrieben.
Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0
Spanien · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026 · angeheftet
DYM's poll was taken before the housing vote and the dissolution. It usually shows the PP higher than other pollsters; allowing for that, the lead is 6.5 points.
Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 2. November 2026
Polls of a close race should scatter by chance. In 2024 they barely did. Here is why that matters, and the four things our model does so a pack of look-alike polls cannot make it overconfident.
Photo: Nick-D, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australien · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Essential puts Labor and One Nation on 28 each, while Roy Morgan has Labor 3.5 points clear of One Nation. Our projection: One Nation 63 seats, Labor 55, and a hung parliament 97 per cent likely.
Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0
Kanada · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Liaison Strategies has the Liberals 13 points ahead and Nanos 19.5, both closer than the week before. Our projection trims Mark Carney's party to 238 seats, still a majority in more than 99 per cent of our simulations.
Photo: WrS.tm.pl
Polen · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Ipsos's poll for TVP Info has KO 8 points ahead, with PiS well above where other pollsters have it. Our projection gives the parties of the right a majority in 90 per cent of our simulations, down from 92.
Photo: Vysotsky, CC BY-SA 4.0
Niederlande · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Verian puts PRO 7 seats clear of the PVV and the three cabinet parties on 44 between them. Our projection: PRO 28, PVV 20, JA21 18.
Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0
Italien · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
SWG's poll for Tg La7 puts Fratelli d'Italia on 29.3 and the PD on 20.6, yet has the centre-left ahead on coalitions. Our projection still gives the centre-left 223 of 400 seats.
Photo: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Deutschland · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Beide Umfragen seit unserem letzten Wochenüberblick sehen die AfD vorn, bei INSA mit 10,5 Punkten, bei Forsa mit 6. Unsere Projektion: AfD 200 Sitze bei 27,7 Prozent, CDU/CSU 148.
Photo: François GOGLINS, CC BY-SA 4.0
Frankreich · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Cluster17's poll, the only one added this week, changes little. Marine Le Pen leads Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 18.2 points in our average, and our forecast gives her a 90 per cent chance of the Élysée.
Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0
Großbritannien · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Four new polls all have Labour ahead, by 4 to 7 points. Our projection gives Labour 330 seats and a 46 per cent chance of a majority, and the one poll taken partly after the Budget has Labour up 2.
Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 2. November 2026
Thirty-six states elect a governor on Tuesday. Most look settled, but in Georgia, Nevada and Alaska the polling averages are within about a point and a half, and Ohio is not far behind.
Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0
Spanien · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Spain votes on 29 November. Our projection gives the PP 134 seats on 31.1 per cent and Vox 65, a joint majority in 99 per cent of our simulations. Every private poll still has the PP first.
Photo: secretlondon123, CC BY-SA 2.0
Großbritannien · Umfragen der Woche · 23. Oktober 2026
One poll was published in the week to 21 October, and our average barely moved: Labour 27.8, Reform UK 22.5, the Conservatives 21.5.
Photo: Gerd Eichmann, CC BY-SA 4.0
Frankreich · Umfragen der Woche · 23. Oktober 2026
Marine Le Pen is on 34.6 in our average, up 0.8, while Mélenchon and Philippe trade second place depending on the pollster.
Photo: WrS.tm.pl
Polen · Umfragen der Woche · 21. Oktober 2026
KO is on 33.4 in our average and PiS on 21.3. Our forecast still gives the right-wing parties together a likely Sejm majority.
Photo: Alexkom000, CC BY 4.0
Italien · Umfragen der Woche · 21. Oktober 2026
Fratelli d'Italia is on 27.4 in our average and the PD on 20.3, each up 0.2, with little separating the week's three polls.
Photo: Foto: Bernd Schwabe in Hannover, CC BY-SA 3.0
Deutschland · Umfragen der Woche · 21. Oktober 2026
Die AfD liegt in unserem Durchschnitt bei 26,1 Prozent, 0,8 Punkte mehr, während SPD und Linke in einer Woche mit vier Umfragen je 0,6 verloren.
Photo: Leafsfan67, CC BY-SA 4.0
Kanada · Umfragen der Woche · 21. Oktober 2026
The Liberals are on 47 in our average, up 0.5, and our forecast gives them a majority in over 99 percent of simulations.
Photo: Dietmar Rabich, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australien · Umfragen der Woche · 21. Oktober 2026
One poll this week had One Nation on 27 and Labor on 24. Our forecast still points to a hung parliament with One Nation largest.
Photo: Jeroen van der Meyde/Tweede Kamer, CC BY 4.0
Niederlande · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
Peil.nl has tended to show FvD 2.2 points above other pollsters. Its record says it has overstated PRO by 2.2 points.
Photo: P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 2. November 2026
Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Nebraska, Texas and Ohio are all within three points in the polling averages. Democrats need only some of them, but they cannot afford to lose all of them.
Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 16. Oktober 2026
Run the mega-poll's own vote shares through our model and Labour still gets 358 seats. The difference from our 316 is a weaker Conservative Party and a stronger Restore Britain, not the tactical voting the coverage focused on.
Photo: Aawiosnaa, CC BY 4.0
Polen · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
At four national votes since Tusk took office, final polls put PiS or its candidate too low. Our forecast makes no allowance for it.
Photo: Nebojša Tejić
Spanien · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
104 of 142 private final polls since 2004 had the PSOE too low, but even a repeat of 2023 would probably leave the PP and Vox a majority.
Photo: Jacques Paquier, CC BY 2.0
Frankreich · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
Our seat projection puts the left on 228 of 577 seats and the RN on 118, built on year-old Assembly polls and 2024's run-off pattern.
Photo: Canale ufficiale, CC BY-SA 2.0
Italien · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
At general elections the same pollsters had the M5S too low. Our forecast corrects for that, and the 42% bonus may hang on which pattern holds.
Photo: TobyKohlhagen, CC BY 4.0
Australien · Analyse · 11. Oktober 2026
In 29 mid-term poll climbs across nine countries, the populist right held most of its gain and others did not. One Nation's rise is the largest yet.
Photo: Wilfredor
Kanada · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
Nanos has tended to show the NDP 2.3 points above other pollsters. Its final polls at eight elections overstated the NDP by 1.8 points.
Photo: Milliped, CC BY-SA 4.0
Niederlande · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026
The PVV's 12.8% is 1.1 points above our average. Allowing for Verian's usual pattern, D66 rather than the PVV is second.
Photo: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Deutschland · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
INSA weist die AfD tendenziell 0,7 Punkte höher aus als andere Institute. Bei vier Bundestagswahlen lagen seine letzten Umfragen 1,1 Punkte je Partei neben dem Ergebnis.
Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 2. November 2026
Democrats lead the generic ballot by about nine points, Trump's approval is in the high thirties, and the Senate battleground has spread into Kansas, Texas and Alaska. Here is where everything stands before Tuesday.
Photo: Rory Arnold / No 10 Downing Street, OGL 3.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 15. Oktober 2026
Every final poll put Labour too high, by four points on average. The landslide made the seat calls look right, so pollsters escaped the inquiries of 1992 and 2015.
Photo: Vox España
Frankreich · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
Our forecast gives Marine Le Pen an 80% chance of the presidency, and almost all of the doubt depends on who reaches the run-off against her.
Photo: European People's Party, CC BY 2.0
Spanien · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
Our projection gives the PP 137 seats and Vox 64, a majority together in practically all of our 2,000 simulated elections.
Photo: Governo Italiano, CC BY 3.0 it
Italien · Analyse · 12. Oktober 2026
Our projection gives the centre-left 223 seats under the new law, but with Futuro Nazionale inside the centre-right the bonus switches sides.
Photo: Alison Newman, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australien · Analyse · 10. Oktober 2026
Our projection gives the Coalition 43 of 88 seats, Labor 26 and One Nation 13, with no majority in 64 per cent of simulations.
Photo: Januszk57, CC BY-SA 4.0
Polen · Analyse · 7. Oktober 2026
Our projection puts KO first on 193 seats, yet four parties to its right would hold 246, and the 5% threshold decides much of the rest.
Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0
Kanada · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026
Its NDP figure of 14.9% is high even for a pollster that usually shows the party 1.4 points above others. The Liberals lead by 16.8 points.
Photo: Kritzolina, CC BY-SA 4.0
Deutschland · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026
Die Grünen liegen mit 16 Prozent 1,2 Punkte über unserem Durchschnitt. Infratest dimap weist die Union meist etwas höher aus als andere Institute.
Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 30. Oktober 2026
A namesake on the ballot, a ranked-choice count that ends on November 18, and a fix to our own forecast: Mary Peltola now edges ahead of Senator Dan Sullivan.
Photo: London Assembly, CC BY 3.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
The Greens have lost a larger share of their peak support than any other party, yet the two by-elections they fought hardest were their best since 2015.
Photo: Thomas Bresson, CC BY 4.0
Frankreich · Analyse · 12. Oktober 2026
Our replay of French final polls finds the National Rally polled too high at every legislative first round and presidential run-off, but not in presidential first rounds.
Photo: Nick-D, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australien · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
Roy Morgan has tended to show One Nation 1.5 points below other pollsters. At past elections its final polls overstated the Greens and Labor.
Photo: Adrian Grycuk, CC BY-SA 3.0 pl
Polen · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
On KO, PiS and Konfederacja it is in line with other pollsters. It has tended to show PSL and Lewica a little higher.
Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0
Italien · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
SWG's figures differ from other pollsters' by half a point at most. At past elections its final polls were 3.3 points out per party.
Photo: Antonio.velez, CC BY-SA 3.0 es
Spanien · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
The CIS has tended to show the PSOE well above other pollsters and the PP well below. At past elections its final polls were closer to the result.
Photo: Quintin Soloviev
Vereinigte Staaten · Umfragen der Woche · 30. Oktober 2026
Four days out, our forecast gives the Democrats a 65% chance of the Senate, up from 43% on Monday, and 83% for the House. A polling miss like 2014, 2016, 2020 or 2024 would still keep the Senate Republican.
Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
Restore Britain takes less from Reform in the polls than its share suggests. The bigger danger for Farage is how fast seats fall with each lost point.
Photo: Kerry Raymond, CC BY 4.0
Australien · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026
Labor is up 2.7 points and the Coalition down 4.3 since Essential's last poll. One Nation is 1.8 points below our average.
Photo: Mateusz Opasiński, CC BY 4.0
Polen · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026
Its PiS figure of 24.1% is in line with how it usually differs from other pollsters. Allowing for that, KO's lead is 10.2 points.
Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0
Italien · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026
No party moved more than 0.3 points since SWG's poll a week earlier. Its figures sit close to the other pollsters'.
Photo: Remi Mathis, CC BY-SA 3.0
Frankreich · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
Ifop's polls differ little from other pollsters'. At past elections its final polls were 1.4 points out per party, and overstated the RN.
Photo: Luis García (Zaqarbal), CC BY-SA 3.0 es
Spanien · Analyse · 3. Oktober 2026
Spain's public pollster puts the PSOE ahead while every private pollster in our average puts the PP in front, and the seat law magnifies whichever proves right.
Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 26. Oktober 2026
Wedgewood Polls admitted on October 20 that its surveys were fabricated. We held 25 of them, and they mattered in one race above all: Mississippi. Every one is gone, along with nine polls from a linked firm.
Photo: Owain.davies, CC BY-SA 4.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
A year ago Reform led on 31%. It now averages 23%, one poll has it third, and Farage is less popular than his party.
Photo: Le grand Cricri, CC BY-SA 3.0
Frankreich · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026
Édouard Philippe's 21% is 3.5 points above our average. Ifop has tended to show him a little higher than other pollsters, but not by that much.
Photo: Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australien · Analyse · 2. Oktober 2026
Five months before the 13 March election, our projection gives Labor 43 of 93 seats, four short, with One Nation on eight.
Photo: Architect of the Capitol
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 26. Oktober 2026
Nine Senate and governor races are within 2.1 points on our numbers. A polling miss like 2024's flips seven of them to the Republicans; one like 2012's flips the other two to the Democrats.
Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
Through 2025 YouGov's Labour figure matched the rest of the industry. Since spring a four-point gap has opened, and YouGov's own first-stage answers show little of it.
Photo: Xfigpower, CC BY-SA 3.0
Frankreich · Analyse · 4. Oktober 2026
Across 65 elections in nine countries, parties losing two points late usually finished below their final polls, a pattern that matters for France's crowded first round.
Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 26. Oktober 2026
Silver Bulletin gives the Democrats 76%, Split Ticket 65%, Decision Desk HQ 56%. We give them 43%. The gap comes down to one decision, and on November 4 we will score every forecast, ours included.
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Großbritannien · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
At every general election since 2015 final polls put the Conservatives too close to the challenger on the right, by 3.5 points on average, though Wales broke the pattern.
Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 22. Oktober 2026
Read as results, early-vote party splits missed by 11 points across 75 races. Comparing them with the same day last time does no better: a 10-point early-vote swing has gone with about 1 point in the result.
Photo: UK Prime Minister, CC BY 4.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
Ipsos's long series puts Andy Burnham's start among the weakest since 1990, yet most pollsters rate him positively and Labour is six points up.
Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Umfragen der Woche · 21. Oktober 2026
With 13 days to go, our forecast gives the Democrats a 52% chance of the Senate and 77% for the House. This week's 22 polls were all race polls.
Photo: Number 10, CC BY 4.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
British governments sink about 8 points below their last result by mid-term, more than three times the drop elsewhere, then win much of it back.
Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Umfragen der Woche · 16. Oktober 2026
Our generic-ballot average is almost unchanged with 18 days to go, and our forecast gives the Democrats an 81 percent chance of winning the House.
Photo: Stephen.Bingham, CC BY-SA 2.0
Großbritannien · Analyse · 12. Oktober 2026
Our ward-by-ward projection of 215 English councils puts three parties within 120 seats of each other and leaves Reform's newest councils exposed.
Photo: w_lemay, CC BY-SA 2.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Neue Umfrage · 16. Oktober 2026
The lead is wider than in RMG Research's September poll, and wider still once its usual difference from other pollsters is taken into account.
Photo: secretlondon123, CC BY-SA 2.0
Großbritannien · Institut · 5. Oktober 2026
Across 102 polls it has tended to show the Conservatives 1.7 points above other pollsters. Its one final poll, in 2024, was 1.5 points out per party.
Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
Measured against their own registered voters, North Carolina Democrats and Republicans are returning mail ballots at about 70 percent of their 2022 pace, with Maine ahead.
Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0
Großbritannien · Umfragen der Woche · 5. Oktober 2026
Labour rose a point in our average this week. The three pollsters agree on the size of its lead but not on who is behind it.
Photo: P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
We matched pre-Election Day party splits with results in 75 state races since 2016. Alone they miss badly; added to polls, their state-level signal did not hold up.
Photo: Christian David, CC BY-SA 4.0
Großbritannien · Neue Umfrage · 5. Oktober 2026
Opinium has tended to show Labour higher than other pollsters. With that taken off, its lead is 4.7 points.
Photo: Marilyn Sudkamp, CC BY-SA 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
Forecasters and markets give the Democrats the House at 90% or more. Replay the polls' recent misses and the Senate, and often the House, slips away.
Photo: Ac530, CC BY 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
Party-paid surveys fill the gap, Democratic-side releases outnumber Republican ones 118 to 31, and a single poll drove our own Idaho forecast for weeks.
Photo: Thesavagenorwegian, CC BY 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
The Senate majority runs through Republican-leaning states where final polls have missed toward Democrats, and a scenario built on those misses cuts their chances to 42%.
Photo: Missvain, CC BY 4.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 14. Oktober 2026
Fewer ballots are back in Pennsylvania and North Carolina than at this point in 2022, and past cycles warn against reading the party mix as a forecast.
Photo: LoneStarMike, CC BY 3.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 57% chance of Senate control, but the deciding seat is spread across 11 races and the edge is under two points.
Photo: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0
Vereinigte Staaten · Analyse · 13. Oktober 2026
History says a president this unpopular costs his party about 47 House seats, while our forecast has Republicans losing 16.