Every other forecaster has the Democrats favorites for the Senate. We don't
Silver Bulletin gives the Democrats 76%, Split Ticket 65%, Decision Desk HQ 56%. We give them 43%. The gap comes down to one decision, and on November 4 we will score every forecast, ours included.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 26 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Eight days before the midterms, the forecasters disagree about the Senate, and we are the outlier.
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 43% chance of winning control. The Republicans win in 52% of our simulations, and in 5% Nebraska's independent Dan Osborn holds the balance. Silver Bulletin has the Democrats at 76% (as reported on October 23), Split Ticket at 65% (October 15) and Decision Desk HQ at 56% (October 25).
On the House the gap is smaller but runs the same way. We give the Democrats 73%, Decision Desk HQ 80% and Silver Bulletin 95%.
Where we differ most
Alaska is the biggest gap. We give Mary Peltola a 29% chance against Dan Sullivan. Decision Desk HQ has her at 61%, Silver Bulletin at 63% and Split Ticket at 67%.
In Texas we have James Talarico at 50%. The others range from 56% to 72%.
In Maine we have Troy Jackson at 54%, against 53% at Decision Desk HQ and 72% at Silver Bulletin. In Ohio we have Sherrod Brown at 56%, against 56% and 73%.
The governors' races show the same pattern. We give Nevada's Aaron Ford an 18% chance against Joe Lombardo; Decision Desk HQ has him at 52%. In Georgia we give Keisha Lance Bottoms 32%; they give her 56%.
Why
The others mostly read the polls as they are. We don't. In 5 of the last 6 elections the polls overstated the Democrats: by 2.3 points in 2024, 1.1 in 2022, 6.9 in 2020, 3.9 in 2016 and 3.3 in 2014. Our forecast corrects for how far each state's polls have missed before, so a Democratic lead of a point or two in the polls is closer to a coin toss in ours.
Their race figures are the latest we could find: Decision Desk HQ's from October 25, Silver Bulletin's and Split Ticket's from October 15.
If the polls are right this time, the others will look better than us. If they miss the way they usually have, we will.
The scorecard
On November 4 we will publish how every forecast on our comparison page did, race by race, including ours. Our numbers on that page update with every poll; the others are shown as each forecaster published them, with the date.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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