Upset watch: the polling miss that would flip each close race
Nine Senate and governor races are within 2.1 points on our numbers. A polling miss like 2024's flips seven of them to the Republicans; one like 2012's flips the other two to the Democrats.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 26 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
The closest races are not just close. They sit inside the range the polls have missed by at almost every recent election. Here is what it would take to flip each one.
If the polls overstate the Democrats again
The polls overstated the Democrats in 5 of the last 6 elections, by 2.3 points in 2024. Move every race 2.3 points toward the Republicans and these flip:
- Texas Senate: Talarico leads Paxton by 0.2 on our projection. Any miss toward the Republicans flips it.
- Maine Senate: Jackson leads Collins by 0.7.
- Ohio Senate: Brown leads Husted by 0.8.
- Ohio governor: Acton leads Ramaswamy by 0.9.
- Michigan Senate: El-Sayed leads Rogers by 1.6.
- Oregon governor: Kotek leads Drazan by 1.9.
- Wisconsin governor: Crowley leads Tiffany by 2.0.
A miss like 2020's, 6.9 points, would take all of those and more.
If the polls overstate the Republicans
It happens less often, but it happens: in 2012 the polls overstated the Republicans by 2.4 points. A miss like that flips:
- Iowa Senate: Hinson leads Turek by 1.7.
- Kansas Senate: Marshall leads Hamilton by 2.1.
Georgia's governor's race, where Rick Jackson leads Keisha Lance Bottoms by 2.6, would still stay Republican.
What it means
Nine races are within 2.1 points, and the polls have missed by more than that at most elections since 2000. That is why our forecast leaves the Senate a toss-up. A good night for either party is well within the normal range.
Every race is on our battleground page; you can replay any past polling miss on the what-if page.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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