Republicans move ahead for the Senate as Texas and Maine tighten to dead heats
Eight days out, our forecast gives the Republicans a 52% chance of the Senate, up 11 points in a week. The Democrats still lead for the House at 73%.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 26 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
A week of close polls in the races that decide the Senate has tipped our forecast. The Republicans now win control in 52% of our simulations, up 11 points in seven days. The Democrats win it in 43%. In the other 5%, Dan Osborn, the Nebraska independent who has not said which side he would caucus with, holds the balance.
The House has moved the same way but stays with the Democrats: a 73% chance of a majority, down 5 points in the week, with a projected 225 seats to 210.
The races that decide it
Texas is level. James Talarico and Ken Paxton each win 50% of our simulations; our projected margin is Talarico by 0.2 points. A Fox News poll had them tied at 49 and Emerson had Talarico up a point.
Maine is close to level: Troy Jackson 54%, Susan Collins 46%. Trafalgar's poll on 23 October had them even, and Fox had them tied at 49.
Ohio's special election: Sherrod Brown 56%, Jon Husted 44%. Fox had Brown up 5, 52 to 47.
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed 60%, Mike Rogers 40%. Marist had El-Sayed up 2, 50 to 48.
Iowa leans Republican: Ashley Hinson 62%, Josh Turek 38%. So do Kansas (Roger Marshall 65%), Nebraska (Pete Ricketts 70%) and Alaska (Dan Sullivan 71%).
The governors
Ohio is the closest race for governor: Amy Acton 56%, Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. In Georgia, Rick Jackson wins 68% of our simulations against Keisha Lance Bottoms. Nevada is safer for the Republicans than most expect: Joe Lombardo 82%.
Why we sit to the right of the polls
Our forecast does not take the polls at face value. In 5 of the last 6 elections they overstated the Democrats, and our correction allows for it. That is why we have the Senate as a Republican-leaning toss-up while other forecasters make the Democrats favorites; we set our numbers against theirs, race by race, on this page.
Ignore the early vote. Around 21 million ballots had been cast by 23 October, and the headlines will keep coming. Across 75 races since 2016 the early-vote split missed the result by 11 points on average. The polls missed by 4.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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