Ohio polls trim Democratic chances as the Senate stays a toss-up

With 13 days to go before the midterms on November 3, our forecast gives the Democrats a 52% chance of winning the Senate and a 77% chance of a House majority. Our projection has them on 51 Senate seats, with the vice president breaking a 50-50 tie, and 229 House seats, against the 218 needed.

All 22 polls published in the week to October 21 in the races still in doubt were polls of individual Senate, governor and House races. There was no new generic-ballot poll this week. Our generic-ballot average stands at D+8.5, from seven pollsters' latest polls.

Ohio and the Senate

The polls that moved our forecast most were in Ohio. In the governor's race, ActiVote had Vivek Ramaswamy ahead of Amy Acton 51 to 49. Left out, our forecast would give Acton 67%; with it, she is on 61%. Marist College had Acton ahead 50 to 43, which lifted her chance from 58% to 61%. Our margin in the race is D+1.7, from 22 polls.

In the Ohio Senate special election, ActiVote had Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted tied at 50 each, which cut Brown's chance from 61% to 57%. Marist had Brown ahead 48 to 44 and left our forecast almost where it was. We have Brown ahead by D+1.1 with a 57% chance.

In South Carolina, onpointpolitics had Annie Andrews ahead of Darline Graham 45 to 42, raising her chance from 26% to 32%. Trafalgar Group, released by a Republican-aligned firm, had Graham ahead 49 to 46. Our margin is R+2.7.

Trafalgar also had Peggy Flanagan ahead of Michele Tafoya 48 to 45 in Minnesota, lifting her chance from 71% to 75%. In Iowa, Trafalgar and co/efficient, both Republican-aligned, had Ashley Hinson ahead of Josh Turek by 2 and 3 points; our forecast has Hinson ahead by R+0.8, with Turek on 43%. In Texas, YouGov had James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 51 to 49, close to our margin of D+0.8 and his 53% chance.

The Senate is still close across several states. Besides Texas and Ohio, we have Maine at 60% for Troy Jackson against Susan Collins, Kansas at 43% for Adam Hamilton and Alaska at 37% for Mary Peltola. In Nebraska, the independent Dan Osborn has a 31% chance against Pete Ricketts.

Governors

Georgia had four polls, all within 3 points: ActiVote had Rick Jackson ahead of Keisha Lance Bottoms 51.5 to 48.5, Quantus Insights 48 to 47, and GBAO and the University of Georgia each 46 to 45. Our margin is R+1.8, with Bottoms on 37%.

In Florida, Univision and YouGov had Byron Donalds ahead of David Jolly 50 to 42, and ActiVote 52 to 48; we give Jolly 18%. In Iowa, co/efficient had Rob Sand ahead of Zach Lahn 49 to 45, and Sand is on 80%. In Alaska, Data for Progress, released by a Democratic ally, had Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins on 46 against three Republicans; measured as our average counts it, the poll was R+3.2, and it lowered his chance from 43% to 37%. Our forecast has 25 Democratic governors, with an 80% range of 21 to 29.

The House

Only two House districts in doubt had new polls, both released by Democratic groups. In Florida's 7th, a DCCC poll had Bale Dalton and Ryan Elijah tied at 45; we still have the district at R+2.9. In Florida's 9th, SEA Polling had Darren Soto and Dan Green tied at 44; our margin there is R+4.1.

The closest districts in our projection, such as Florida's 22nd at 49% and Virginia's 1st at 51% for the Democrat, have had few or no recent polls.