RMG Research poll gives Democrats an 11-point lead
The lead is wider than in RMG Research's September poll, and wider still once its usual difference from other pollsters is taken into account.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 14 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
A new RMG Research poll of the generic ballot for the House puts the Democrats on 54 percent and the Republicans on 43, a Democratic lead of 11 points. Fieldwork ended on October 14.
In RMG Research's previous poll, which ended on September 17, the Democrats were on 52 and the Republicans on 46. The Democrats are up 2 points, within the normal scatter of polling. The Republicans are down 3. As two-party shares, the poll has the Democrats on 55.7 and the Republicans on 44.3. That puts the Democrats 1.5 points above our poll average of 54.2 and the Republicans 1.2 points below our average of 45.5. Both gaps are within the normal scatter of a single poll.
Across 18 polls, RMG Research has tended to show the Republicans 1.5 points higher and the Democrats 1.5 points lower than other pollsters. This is a clear difference. Taking it off, the poll shows the Democrats on 57.2 and the Republicans on 42.8 like for like, a lead of 14.4 points. At the two elections where it had a final poll, RMG Research missed by an average of 1.8 points per party. It missed by 2.2 in 2024 and 1.3 in 2020. Its final polls understated the Republicans by 2.6 points on average and overstated the Democrats by 0.9. Our grade for the pollster is D.
Our forecast gives the Democrats an 81 percent chance of a House majority, with 232 seats to 203 for the Republicans.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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