Democrats hold their lead in a week with one new poll
Our generic-ballot average is almost unchanged with 18 days to go, and our forecast gives the Democrats an 81 percent chance of winning the House.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 16 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
The Democrats hold 54.2 percent of the two-party vote in our generic-ballot average for the House, unchanged on last week, with the Republicans on 45.5 percent, down 0.1 points. That is the only move in our average this week, and it is a small one. Only one poll was published in the seven days to October 16, against 18 in the last 30 days, so most of the polls in our average were carried out before this week.
At the last election the Democrats took 48 percent and the Republicans 50.4 percent. The midterm elections are on November 3, in 18 days. Republicans hold the House 218-214, with two vacancies, and 218 seats are needed for a majority.
The week's poll
RMG Research, whose fieldwork ended on October 14, put the Democrats on 54 percent and the Republicans on 43 percent, an 11-point lead. With undecided voters and others left out, as our average does, that is 55.7 percent for the Democrats and 44.3 percent for the Republicans.
That puts the Democrats 1.5 points above our average and the Republicans 1.2 points below it. Differences of that size in one poll are within the normal scatter of polling. A single poll of about 1,000 people is expected to be within about 3 points of the truth on a party's share 19 times in 20.
With only one poll this week, there is no group of polls to set it against. RMG Research's house effect gives a clearer guide to how its figures compare. Across 18 polls, it has tended to show the Republicans about 1.5 points higher than other pollsters and the Democrats about 1.5 points lower. That difference is clear, at more than twice its standard error.
This week's result runs the other way from that usual pattern. It shows the Democrats above our average, not below it. With its usual difference from other pollsters taken off, the poll shows the Democrats on 57.2 percent and the Republicans on 42.8 percent of the two-party vote, a Democratic lead of 14.4 points. That lead is wider than in our average, but it comes from a single poll. Our grade for RMG Research is D.
Our forecast
Our forecast has the Democrats winning the House with 232 seats to the Republicans' 203. At the last election the Democrats won 215 seats and the Republicans 220. We give the Democrats an 81 percent chance of a House majority.
In the Senate, our projection has the Democrats winning 53 seats to the Republicans' 47, the reverse of the current 53-47 Republican majority. We give the Democrats a 66 percent chance of Senate control. The vice president breaks a 50-50 tie.
Our projection also has 27 Democratic governors out of 50, with an 80 percent range of 22 to 31.
The generic ballot in our forecast stands at D+8.6, based on the latest polls from seven pollsters. Our average moved by 0.1 points this week, and this week's one new poll sits within the normal scatter of polling.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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