Le Pen still 18 points clear in a quiet week for polls
Cluster17's poll, the only one added this week, changes little. Marine Le Pen leads Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 18.2 points in our average, and our forecast gives her a 90 per cent chance of the Élysée.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 30 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
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Only one first-round poll has come into our average since last Sunday's round-up, and it does not change the picture. Cluster17 for Politico, with fieldwork to 22 October, had Marine Le Pen on 32.9, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.5, Édouard Philippe 16, Raphaël Glucksmann 13.1 and Bruno Retailleau 8.2. We hold no poll with fieldwork after 22 October.
Our average now has Le Pen on 34.9 per cent, Mélenchon 16.6, Philippe 15.1 and Glucksmann 13.1. Le Pen leads Mélenchon by 18.2 points. Philippe has had the worst three months of the leading four, down 3.8 points since July, while Glucksmann has gained 2 points over the past month.
Our forecast
Le Pen wins the presidency in 90 per cent of our simulations, down from 92 last week. Philippe wins in 9. The most likely second round is still Le Pen against Mélenchon, which comes up in 65 per cent of simulations; Philippe reaches the run-off in 30. In that duel the polls as published have Le Pen ahead by 67.5 to 32.5. We make it 66 to 34, because round-two polls have overstated the RN at every run-off it has reached.
The poll check
Our poll check is built on the legislative polls, and there Cluster17 usually puts the RN about a point lower than other pollsters do, while Ifop puts it about a point higher. Cluster17's Le Pen figure is the lowest of the latest round; allow for that lean and she is close to 34, in line with everyone else. We don't correct first-round polls themselves: tested on the elections since 2000, it made the forecast worse at four of five.
The context
The budget fight goes on. On 27 October deputies deleted, by 79 votes to 77, the article that would have extended the exceptional levy on large companies' profits for a third year, worth about 5 billion euros to the government. The RN voted for deletion alongside parts of the right and the centre. The solemn vote on the revenue half of the 2027 budget is set for 3 November.
What comes next
The first round is on 18 April 2027 and the second on 2 May. If the Assemblée were elected on today's polls, the left would win 278 seats, down from 290 last week and now 11 short of the 289 needed for a majority. RN and allies would win 130, Ensemble and the centre 79 and LR and the other right 74.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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