France Prochaine élection18 avr 2027dans 168 jours Le Pen wins 93% Philippe wins 6% Calendrier Bilan des sondages Recherche
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France · changelog

What moved in the forecast, day by day

Every day our France forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.

  1. 26 OctMonday
    • Left (NFP and other left) majority: 16% chance, down 3 pts
    • Left (NFP and other left): 282 seats (−8)
    • RN and allies: 123 seats (−2)
    • Ensemble and centre: 81 seats (+7)
    • LR and other right: 75 seats (+3)
    • Ensemble and centre: 17.0% of the vote (+0.5)
    • Philippe: 14.3% of the vote (−0.5)
  2. 24 OctSaturday
    • Left (NFP and other left) majority: 19% chance, up 5 pts
    • Left (NFP and other left): 290 seats (+9)
    • RN and allies: 125 seats (−1)
    • Ensemble and centre: 74 seats (−7)
    • LR and other right: 72 seats (−1)
    • Left (NFP and other left): 34.3% of the vote (+0.5)
    • Ensemble and centre: 16.5% of the vote (−0.6)
  3. 22 OctThursday
    • Left (NFP and other left): 281 seats (+9)
    • RN and allies: 126 seats (+1)
    • Ensemble and centre: 81 seats (−10)
  4. 20 OctTuesday
    • RN and allies: 125 seats (+1)
    • LR and other right: 73 seats (−1)
  5. 18 OctSunday
    • Left (NFP and other left) majority: 13% chance, up 6 pts
    • Left (NFP and other left): 272 seats (+14)
    • RN and allies: 124 seats (+9)
    • Ensemble and centre: 91 seats (−21)
    • LR and other right: 74 seats (−2)
    • Left (NFP and other left): 33.5% of the vote (+1.0)
    • RN and allies: 33.1% of the vote (+0.6)
    • Ensemble and centre: 17.4% of the vote (−1.3)
    • Le Pen: 34.4% of the vote (+0.4)
  6. 17 OctSaturday
    • Left (NFP and other left) majority: 6% chance, up 4 pts
    • Left (NFP and other left): 258 seats (+12)
    • RN and allies: 115 seats (−6)
    • Ensemble and centre: 112 seats (−7)
    • LR and other right: 76 seats (+1)
    • Left (NFP and other left): 32.5% of the vote (+0.7)
    • Glucksmann: 12.6% of the vote (+0.5)
  7. 16 OctFriday
    • Left (NFP and other left): 246 seats (−1)
    • RN and allies: 121 seats (+1)
  8. 15 OctThursday
    • Left (NFP and other left): 247 seats (+2)
    • RN and allies: 120 seats (+5)
    • Ensemble and centre: 119 seats (−6)
    • LR and other right: 75 seats (−1)
    • Ensemble and centre: 19.1% of the vote (−0.8)
    • Philippe: 15.9% of the vote (−0.4)
    • Glucksmann: 12.1% of the vote (+0.7)
    • Zemmour: 3.9% of the vote (+0.4)
  9. 14 OctWednesday
    • Left (NFP and other left): 245 seats (+3)
    • Ensemble and centre: 125 seats (+17)
    • RN and allies: 115 seats (−8)
    • LR and other right: 76 seats (−11)
    • Others and regionalists: 16 seats (−1)
    • Left (NFP and other left): 31.6% of the vote (+1.1)
    • Ensemble and centre: 19.9% of the vote (+3.9)
    • RN and allies: 32.5% of the vote (+0.8)
    • LR and other right: 12.6% of the vote (−2.8)
    • Others and regionalists: 2.9% of the vote (−0.9)
    • Mélenchon: 17.5% of the vote (+0.7)
    • Philippe: 16.4% of the vote (−1.3)
    • Glucksmann: 11.4% of the vote (+0.4)
  10. 4 OctSunday
    • Le Pen: 33.9% of the vote (+0.5)
    • Tondelier: 3.7% of the vote (+0.5)
  11. 1 OctThursday
    • Philippe: 17.6% of the vote (+0.5)
  12. 29 SepTuesday
    • RN and allies: 123 seats (+6)
    • Ensemble and centre: 108 seats (−18)
    • LR and other right: 87 seats (+10)
    • Others and regionalists: 17 seats (+2)
    • Left (NFP and other left): 30.5% of the vote (−1.1)
    • RN and allies: 31.8% of the vote (−0.8)
    • Ensemble and centre: 16.0% of the vote (−3.9)
    • LR and other right: 15.4% of the vote (+2.6)
    • Others and regionalists: 3.8% of the vote (+1.3)
  13. 28 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 242 seats (+2)
    • ENS: 126 seats (−6)
    • RN: 117 seats (+4)
  14. 24 SepThursday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 240 seats (+5)
    • ENS: 132 seats (−1)
    • RIGHT: 77 seats (+1)
    • RN: 113 seats (−4)
    • OTH: 15 seats (−1)
    • LEFT: 31.5% of the vote (+0.5)
    • OTH: 2.5% of the vote (−0.6)
  15. 23 SepWednesday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 235 seats (−6)
    • RIGHT: 76 seats (−1)
    • RN: 117 seats (+7)
  16. 22 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 241 seats (−1)
    • ENS: 133 seats (+25)
    • RIGHT: 77 seats (−10)
    • RN: 110 seats (−13)
    • OTH: 16 seats (−1)
    • LEFT: 31.4% of the vote (+0.9)
    • ENS: 20.2% of the vote (+4.2)
    • RIGHT: 12.5% of the vote (−2.8)
    • REC: 2.4% of the vote (−1.7)
    • OTH: 3.2% of the vote (−0.6)
  17. 21 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 242 seats (+1)
    • ENS: 108 seats (−25)
    • RIGHT: 87 seats (+10)
    • RN: 123 seats (+13)
    • OTH: 17 seats (+1)
    • LEFT: 30.5% of the vote (−0.9)
    • ENS: 16.0% of the vote (−4.2)
    • RIGHT: 15.4% of the vote (+2.8)
    • REC: 4.1% of the vote (+1.7)
    • OTH: 3.8% of the vote (+0.6)
  18. 15 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 241 seats (−1)
    • ENS: 133 seats (+25)
    • RIGHT: 77 seats (−10)
    • RN: 110 seats (−13)
    • OTH: 16 seats (−1)
    • LEFT: 31.4% of the vote (+0.9)
    • ENS: 20.2% of the vote (+4.2)
    • RIGHT: 12.5% of the vote (−2.8)
    • REC: 2.4% of the vote (−1.7)
    • OTH: 3.2% of the vote (−0.6)
  19. 14 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 242 seats (+1)
    • ENS: 108 seats (−23)
    • RIGHT: 87 seats (+11)
    • RN: 123 seats (+10)
    • OTH: 17 seats (+1)
    • LEFT: 30.5% of the vote (−0.9)
    • ENS: 16.0% of the vote (−4.2)
    • RIGHT: 15.4% of the vote (+3.0)
    • RN: 31.8% of the vote (−0.6)
    • REC: 4.1% of the vote (+1.9)
    • OTH: 3.8% of the vote (+0.6)
  20. 13 SepSunday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 241 seats (+3)
    • ENS: 131 seats (−3)
  21. 11 SepFriday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 238 seats (−5)
    • ENS: 134 seats (+10)
    • RN: 113 seats (−5)
    • ENS: 20.4% of the vote (+0.8)
  22. 10 SepThursday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 243 seats (+8)
    • ENS: 124 seats (−10)
    • RIGHT: 76 seats (+4)
    • RN: 118 seats (−3)
    • OTH: 16 seats (+1)
    • ENS: 19.6% of the vote (−1.0)
    • RIGHT: 12.5% of the vote (+0.4)
    • RN: 32.7% of the vote (−0.5)
    • OTH: 3.2% of the vote (+0.8)
  23. 8 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 235 seats (−7)
    • ENS: 134 seats (+26)
    • RIGHT: 72 seats (−15)
    • RN: 121 seats (−2)
    • OTH: 15 seats (−2)
    • LEFT: 31.6% of the vote (+1.0)
    • ENS: 20.6% of the vote (+4.6)
    • RIGHT: 12.1% of the vote (−3.3)
    • RN: 33.1% of the vote (+1.3)
    • REC: 2.1% of the vote (−2.0)
    • OTH: 2.4% of the vote (−1.4)
  24. 7 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 242 seats (+19)
    • ENS: 108 seats (−37)
    • RIGHT: 87 seats (+18)
    • RN: 123 seats (−2)
    • OTH: 17 seats (+2)
    • ENS: 16.0% of the vote (−5.0)
    • RIGHT: 15.4% of the vote (+3.2)
    • RN: 31.8% of the vote (−1.5)
    • REC: 4.1% of the vote (+2.0)
    • OTH: 3.8% of the vote (+1.4)
  25. 1 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 223 seats (−19)
    • ENS: 145 seats (+37)
    • RIGHT: 69 seats (−18)
    • RN: 125 seats (+2)
    • OTH: 15 seats (−2)
    • ENS: 20.9% of the vote (+4.9)
    • RIGHT: 12.3% of the vote (−3.1)
    • RN: 33.2% of the vote (+1.4)
    • REC: 2.2% of the vote (−1.8)
    • OTH: 2.4% of the vote (−1.4)
  26. 31 AugMonday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 242 seats (+31)
    • ENS: 108 seats (−45)
    • RIGHT: 87 seats (+20)
    • RN: 123 seats (−8)
    • OTH: 17 seats (+2)
    • ENS: 16.0% of the vote (−5.4)
    • RIGHT: 15.4% of the vote (+3.2)
    • RN: 31.8% of the vote (−2.3)
    • REC: 4.1% of the vote (+1.9)
    • OTH: 3.8% of the vote (+2.3)
  27. 29 AugSaturday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 211 seats (+1)
    • ENS: 153 seats (+1)
    • RN: 131 seats (−2)
  28. 26 AugWednesday · rebuilt
    • LEFT: 210 seats (+9)
    • ENS: 152 seats (−4)
    • RIGHT: 67 seats (+3)
    • RN: 133 seats (−8)
    • LEFT: 30.5% of the vote (+0.7)
    • RN: 34.1% of the vote (−0.5)
  29. 25 AugTuesday · rebuilt
    • LEFT majority: 0% chance, down 3 pts
    • LEFT: 201 seats (−41)
    • ENS: 156 seats (+48)
    • RIGHT: 64 seats (−23)
    • RN: 141 seats (+18)
    • OTH: 15 seats (−2)
    • LEFT: 29.8% of the vote (−0.7)
    • ENS: 21.6% of the vote (+5.6)
    • RIGHT: 12.4% of the vote (−3.0)
    • RN: 34.6% of the vote (+2.8)
    • REC: 2.1% of the vote (−2.0)
    • EXG: 0.9% of the vote (−0.5)
    • OTH: 1.6% of the vote (−2.2)
  30. 24 AugMonday · rebuilt
    • LEFT majority: 4% chance, up 3 pts
    • LEFT: 242 seats (+30)
    • ENS: 108 seats (−44)
    • RIGHT: 87 seats (+18)
    • RN: 123 seats (−6)
    • OTH: 17 seats (+2)
    • ENS: 16.0% of the vote (−5.5)
    • RIGHT: 15.4% of the vote (+2.8)
    • RN: 31.8% of the vote (−1.9)
    • REC: 4.1% of the vote (+1.4)
    • EXG: 1.3% of the vote (+0.4)
    • OTH: 3.8% of the vote (+2.4)