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Faire bouger les sondages → Tous les outils →Where the polls stood 5 months before each of the last three presidential first rounds, and what happened next. The biggest move from this point: France Unbowed in 2022, +13.6 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
Ensemble (Macron camp) led by 6.6. Ensemble (Macron camp) came first by 4.7 on 10 April.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble (Macron camp) | 25.7 | 27.9 | +2.2 |
| National Rally | 19.1 | 23.2 | +4.1 |
| France Unbowed | 8.4 | 22.0 | +13.6 |
| Reconquête | 15.4 | 7.1 | −8.3 |
| Republicans | 9.9 | 4.8 | −5.1 |
| Greens | 7.9 | 4.6 | −3.3 |
National Rally led by 8.7. Ensemble (Macron camp) came first instead, by 2.7.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Rally | 28.8 | 21.3 | −7.5 |
| Ensemble (Macron camp) | 12.5 | 24.0 | +11.5 |
| Republicans | 20.1 | 20.0 | −0.1 |
| France Unbowed | 13.4 | 19.6 | +6.2 |
| Socialists | 9.8 | 6.4 | −3.4 |
| Centre (UDF, MoDem) | 9.2 | – |
Socialists led by 6.7. Socialists came first by 1.5 on 22 April.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Socialists | 33.1 | 28.6 | −4.5 |
| Republicans | 26.4 | 27.2 | +0.8 |
| National Rally | 17.4 | 17.9 | +0.5 |
| France Unbowed | 5.9 | 11.1 | +5.2 |
| Centre (UDF, MoDem) | 6.5 | 9.1 | +2.6 |
| Greens | – | 2.3 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Candidate | Today | As in 2022 | As in 2017 | As in 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Pen National Rally | 34.2 | 38.3 | 26.7 | 34.7 |
| Mélenchon France Unbowed | 16.8 | 30.4 | 23.0 | 22.0 |
| Philippe Ensemble (Macron camp) | 14.3 | 16.5 | 25.8 | |
| Glucksmann Socialists | 13.4 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| Retailleau Republicans | 7.6 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Zemmour Reconquête | 3.8 | 0.0 | ||
| Tondelier Greens | 2.9 | 0.0 | ||
| Dupont-Aignan Sovereigntists | 2.1 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
Le Pen stays ahead in every one. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters. France's figures are the first round of the presidential election, by political family, so 2012's Socialist is Hollande and 2027's is whoever stands.
Polls: Opinion polling for the 2012 French presidential election, Opinion polling for the 2017 French presidential election, Opinion polling for the 2022 French presidential election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
