France Prochaine élection18 avr 2027dans 167 jours Le Pen wins 93% Philippe wins 6% Calendrier Bilan des sondages Recherche
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France · Seats changing hands

128 seats change hands since 2024, Left (NFP and other left) up 90

Every seat our projection gives to a different party from the one that won it in 2024. It moves with every poll; the chance is how often the new winner takes the seat in our simulations.

Who takes seats from whom

  1. Left (NFP and other left)from Ensemble and centre 71 seats
  2. Left (NFP and other left)from RN and allies 18 seats
  3. RN and alliesfrom Ensemble and centre 11 seats
  4. LR and other rightfrom RN and allies 11 seats
  5. Left (NFP and other left)from LR and other right 3 seats
  6. Ensemble and centrefrom RN and allies 3 seats
  7. Others and regionalistsfrom LR and other right 3 seats
  8. RN and alliesfrom LR and other right 2 seats
  9. LR and other rightfrom Left (NFP and other left) 2 seats
  10. Others and regionalistsfrom Ensemble and centre 1 seat
  11. LR and other rightfrom Ensemble and centre 1 seat
  12. Left (NFP and other left)from Others and regionalists 1 seat
  13. Others and regionalistsfrom Left (NFP and other left) 1 seat

Every seat

  1. Eure-et-Loir 2eEure-et-Loir RN and allies from LR and other right 21% chance
  2. Ain 1reAin RN and allies from LR and other right 23% chance
  3. Cher 1reCher Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 26% chance
  4. Haut-Rhin 6eHaut-Rhin RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 27% chance
  5. Marne 2eMarne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 27% chance
  6. Yvelines 2eYvelines Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 30% chance
  7. Seine-et-Marne 5eSeine-et-Marne RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 31% chance
  8. Vienne 3eVienne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 32% chance
  9. Yvelines 1reYvelines Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 33% chance
  10. Seine-et-Marne 6eSeine-et-Marne Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 33% chance
  11. Maine-et-Loire 2eMaine-et-Loire Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 33% chance
  12. Var 1reVar RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 34% chance
  13. Eure-et-Loir 1reEure-et-Loir Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 34% chance
  14. Gironde 1reGironde Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 34% chance
  15. Morbihan 3eMorbihan Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 35% chance
  16. Rhône 10eRhône Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 35% chance
  17. Nièvre 1reNièvre RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 36% chance
  18. Charente 2eCharente RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 37% chance
  19. Haute-Garonne 5eHaute-Garonne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 41% chance
  20. Yvelines 10eYvelines Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 41% chance
  21. Côtes-d'Armor 2eCôtes-d'Armor Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 42% chance
  22. Haute-Savoie 5eHaute-Savoie Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 42% chance
  23. Moselle 1reMoselle Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 42% chance
  24. Rhône 11eRhône Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 42% chance
  25. Deux-Sèvres 1reDeux-Sèvres Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 43% chance
  26. Loire 3eLoire Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 43% chance
  27. Indre-et-Loire 3eIndre-et-Loire Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 44% chance
  28. Creuse 1reCreuse Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 44% chance
  29. Ain 2eAin RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 44% chance
  30. Rhône 8eRhône Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 44% chance
  31. Nord 9eNord Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 45% chance
  32. Ain 3eAin Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 45% chance
  33. Sarthe 5eSarthe Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 45% chance
  34. Yonne 2eYonne Ensemble and centre from RN and allies 46% chance
  35. Côtes-d'Armor 5eCôtes-d'Armor Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 46% chance
  36. Lot-et-Garonne 3eLot-et-Garonne Left (NFP and other left) from LR and other right 46% chance
  37. Tarn 1reTarn Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 47% chance
  38. Loiret 1reLoiret Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 47% chance
  39. Yvelines 11eYvelines Left (NFP and other left) from LR and other right 47% chance
  40. Rhône 5eRhône Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 48% chance
  41. Gironde 9eGironde Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 48% chance
  42. Moselle 2eMoselle Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 49% chance
  43. Morbihan 2eMorbihan Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 49% chance
  44. Haute-Savoie 2eHaute-Savoie Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 49% chance
  45. Sarthe 1reSarthe Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 50% chance
  46. Gironde 10eGironde RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 51% chance
  47. Français établis hors de France 7eD099 Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 51% chance
  48. Oise 1reOise LR and other right from RN and allies 51% chance
  49. Dordogne 3eDordogne Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 51% chance
  50. Lot-et-Garonne 1reLot-et-Garonne RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 51% chance
  51. Bouches-du-Rhône 3eBouches-du-Rhône Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 52% chance
  52. Saône-et-Loire 5eSaône-et-Loire Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 52% chance
  53. Loire-Atlantique 7eLoire-Atlantique Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 52% chance
  54. Côte-d'Or 5eCôte-d'Or Ensemble and centre from RN and allies 52% chance
  55. Ardèche 3eArdèche Left (NFP and other left) from LR and other right 53% chance
  56. Landes 1reLandes Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 53% chance
  57. Tarn 3eTarn RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 53% chance
  58. Indre-et-Loire 5eIndre-et-Loire Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 54% chance
  59. Gers 1reGers Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 55% chance
  60. Seine-Maritime 2eSeine-Maritime Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 56% chance
  61. Paris 13eParis Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 56% chance
  62. Calvados 5eCalvados Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 57% chance
  63. Hérault 4eHérault Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 57% chance
  64. Maine-et-Loire 7eMaine-et-Loire Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 57% chance
  65. Français établis hors de France 3eD099 Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 58% chance
  66. Territoire de Belfort 2eTerritoire de Belfort Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 58% chance
  67. Aveyron 3eAveyron Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 58% chance
  68. Ardèche 2eArdèche Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 58% chance
  69. Tarn-et-Garonne 1reTarn-et-Garonne Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 59% chance
  70. Finistère 5eFinistère Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 59% chance
  71. Nord 7eNord Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 59% chance
  72. Val-de-Marne 5eVal-de-Marne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 60% chance
  73. Saône-et-Loire 1reSaône-et-Loire Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 60% chance
  74. Bouches-du-Rhône 6eBouches-du-Rhône Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 61% chance
  75. Seine-Maritime 7eSeine-Maritime Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 61% chance
  76. Pyrénées-Atlantiques 2ePyrénées-Atlantiques Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 61% chance
  77. Marne 3eMarne Ensemble and centre from RN and allies 63% chance
  78. Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 2eAlpes-de-Haute-Provence Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 63% chance
  79. Côtes-d'Armor 1reCôtes-d'Armor Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 63% chance
  80. Dordogne 1reDordogne Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 64% chance
  81. Essonne 4eEssonne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 64% chance
  82. Gard 5eGard Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 64% chance
  83. Nord 4eNord Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 65% chance
  84. La Réunion 4eLa Réunion LR and other right from Left (NFP and other left) 65% chance
  85. Polynésie française 1reD987 Others and regionalists from LR and other right 65% chance
  86. Seine-et-Marne 4eSeine-et-Marne LR and other right from RN and allies 65% chance
  87. Landes 2eLandes Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 66% chance
  88. Français établis hors de France 4eD099 Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 67% chance
  89. Rhône 12eRhône Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 67% chance
  90. Doubs 1reDoubs Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 68% chance
  91. Maine-et-Loire 1reMaine-et-Loire Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 68% chance
  92. Allier 2eAllier LR and other right from RN and allies 68% chance
  93. Rhône 13eRhône Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 68% chance
  94. Loiret 6eLoiret Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 68% chance
  95. Vosges 4eVosges LR and other right from RN and allies 68% chance
  96. Oise 6eOise LR and other right from RN and allies 68% chance
  97. Puy-de-Dôme 4ePuy-de-Dôme Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 68% chance
  98. Finistère 7eFinistère Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 70% chance
  99. Loire-Atlantique 10eLoire-Atlantique Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 71% chance
  100. Hérault 9eHérault Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 71% chance
  101. Finistère 1reFinistère Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 72% chance
  102. Finistère 4eFinistère Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 72% chance
  103. Bouches-du-Rhône 14eBouches-du-Rhône Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 72% chance
  104. Corse-du-Sud 1reCorse-du-Sud Others and regionalists from Ensemble and centre 74% chance
  105. Moselle 5eMoselle LR and other right from RN and allies 74% chance
  106. Eure-et-Loir 3eEure-et-Loir RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 74% chance
  107. Hauts-de-Seine 5eHauts-de-Seine Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 75% chance
  108. Val-de-Marne 4eVal-de-Marne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 76% chance
  109. Pas-de-Calais 7ePas-de-Calais LR and other right from RN and allies 79% chance
  110. Haute-Garonne 3eHaute-Garonne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 80% chance
  111. Val-d'Oise 1reVal-d'Oise Left (NFP and other left) from RN and allies 81% chance
  112. Mayotte 2eMayotte LR and other right from RN and allies 83% chance
  113. Meuse 1reMeuse LR and other right from RN and allies 83% chance
  114. Pyrénées-Atlantiques 1rePyrénées-Atlantiques Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 84% chance
  115. Hérault 6eHérault LR and other right from RN and allies 84% chance
  116. Martinique 1reMartinique Left (NFP and other left) from Others and regionalists 85% chance
  117. Français établis hors de France 8eD099 LR and other right from Ensemble and centre 88% chance
  118. Val-d'Oise 4eVal-d'Oise Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 88% chance
  119. Val-de-Marne 6eVal-de-Marne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 88% chance
  120. Loiret 5eLoiret RN and allies from Ensemble and centre 89% chance
  121. Essonne 5eEssonne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 90% chance
  122. La Réunion 3eLa Réunion LR and other right from RN and allies 90% chance
  123. Vienne 2eVienne Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 90% chance
  124. Finistère 8eFinistère Left (NFP and other left) from Ensemble and centre 96% chance
  125. Nouvelle-Calédonie 1reNouvelle-Calédonie Others and regionalists from LR and other right over 99% chance
  126. Polynésie française 2eD987 Others and regionalists from LR and other right over 99% chance
  127. Polynésie française 3eD987 Others and regionalists from Left (NFP and other left) over 99% chance
  128. Essonne 8eEssonne LR and other right from Left (NFP and other left) over 99% chance

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