YouGov puts One Nation three points ahead of Labor
One poll this week had One Nation on 27 and Labor on 24. Our forecast still points to a hung parliament with One Nation largest.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 20 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
One national poll was published in Australia in the week to 21 October, from YouGov Australia, with fieldwork ending on 20 October. It had One Nation on 27, Labor on 24, the Coalition on 23 and the Greens on 14, with others on 12. That puts One Nation three points ahead of Labor.
Our average moved little. Labor is on 27.2 per cent, down 0.5 points over the last week of polling, with One Nation on 26.6, up 0.1, and the Coalition on 21.7, up 0.3. The Greens are on 13.2 and others on 11.3.
A low Labor figure, partly as usual
YouGov's Labor figure was 3.2 points below our average, and its Coalition figure 1.3 points above. The Labor gap is a little larger than the normal scatter of a single poll, which is about 3 points on a party's share 19 times in 20.
Part of it is YouGov's usual pattern. Across 26 polls it has tended to show Labor 1.2 points lower and the Coalition 1.4 points lower than other pollsters, and One Nation and the Greens each 0.7 points higher. All four are clear differences. With them taken off, the poll reads One Nation 26.3, Labor 25.2, the Coalition 24.4 and the Greens 13.3: One Nation ahead by 1.1 points, close to the picture in our average, where Labor and One Nation are within a point of each other.
It was the only poll of the week. Our average draws on 10 polls published in the last 30 days.
Our forecast
Our projection makes One Nation the largest party in the House of Representatives with 64 seats, against none at the 2025 election. Labor would fall to 55 from 94 and the Coalition to 14 from 43. Independents would hold 11, the Greens 5 and Centre Alliance 1.
No party reaches the 76 seats needed for a majority in 96 per cent of our simulations. Labor wins a majority in 1 per cent. One Nation and the Coalition together reach 76 in 54 per cent, with 78 seats between them in our projection.
On the two-party-preferred measure, our figure from the primary votes is Labor 51.8.
The next federal election is due by 20 May 2028 at the latest, 577 days away.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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