No new poll, and One Nation still leads our projection
YouGov's poll from last week, with One Nation first and Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, is still the latest. Our projection: One Nation 64 seats, Labor 55.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 26 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
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No new national voting-intention poll has been published since YouGov's on 20 October. That poll had One Nation on 27, Labor 24, the Coalition 23 and the Greens 14, with Labor and the Coalition level on the two-party-preferred vote. Labor's 24 was a low for this term.
The polls before it all had the same three-way contest. Roy Morgan (11 October) had Labor on 26, One Nation 24 and the Coalition 21.5. Resolve (10 October) had Labor 29, One Nation 25 and the Coalition 23; Newspoll, earlier in October, Labor 29 and One Nation 28.
Our projection
On today's polls One Nation wins 64 seats, Labor 55, the Coalition 14, independents 11 and the Greens 5. No party reaches the 76 needed for a majority in 96 per cent of our simulations. Labor wins a majority in 1 per cent.
The poll check
Roy Morgan usually has One Nation about 1.5 points lower than other pollsters; allowing for that, its 2-point Labor lead in October is closer to 1.
The week
Parliament paused on 26 October for tributes to the independent MP Helen Haines, who was deliberately hit by a car outside her office in Wangaratta on 19 October and is in a serious but stable condition. A man has been charged. The government is considering stronger security for MPs.
In policy, the Opposition Leader, Angus Taylor, announced $31 billion of savings to pay for income tax cuts. The next federal election is due by 20 May 2028.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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