Verian has the Jetten cabinet down to 44 seats as time runs short for the tax plan
Verian puts PRO 7 seats clear of the PVV and the three cabinet parties on 44 between them. Our projection: PRO 28, PVV 20, JA21 18.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 30 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
One new poll was published this week. Verian's poll for EenVandaag, with fieldwork from 23 to 26 October and published on 28 October, had PRO on 28 seats and 18.0 per cent of the vote, the PVV on 21 seats (13.4), and JA21 and the VVD on 16 each. D66 and the CDA had 14 each, and the Forum for Democracy 13.
The cabinet parties lost ground. Since Verian's previous poll on 28 September, D66 has fallen 1.9 points to 9.4 and the VVD 1.2 points to 10.3. D66, the VVD and the CDA have 44 seats together in Verian's poll, down from 49 a month earlier and 66 at the 2025 election. Peil.nl had them on 39 a week ago.
Our projection
Our projection has PRO largest on 28 seats and 17.8 per cent, the PVV on 20 (13.1), JA21 on 18 (12.0), D66 on 16 (10.4) and the VVD on 15 (9.6). JA21 is a seat down on our last round-up. PRO is the largest party in 88 per cent of our simulations, down from 91. The cabinet parties have 44 seats between them and reach 76 in none of our simulations. D66 has fallen from 12.6 to 10.1 per cent in the poll average in a month.
The poll check
Verian runs close to the other pollsters on the race at the top, so PRO's 4.6-point lead over the PVV stands. It does usually have the VVD higher and D66 and JA21 lower than other pollsters. Allowing for that, D66 moves up to about 11 and the VVD down to 9.4, which puts D66 level with JA21 behind the PVV.
The tax plan
The cabinet still has no majority for its 2027 tax plan, and the vote is on 12 November. The amended plan goes to the Tweede Kamer on Monday 2 November. JA21, the BBB and the SGP made a joint offer on Thursday: they would back the plan if the cabinet drops the vrijheidsbijdrage, the levy that pays for higher defence spending, cuts spending, and gives ground on nitrogen, asylum and medical ethics. PRO and Volt want lower taxes on work, paid for by higher taxes on large fortunes, and Jesse Klaver says he is ready to compromise.
With PRO and Volt the cabinet would have 87 seats in the Tweede Kamer and 38 of 75 in the Eerste Kamer. With JA21, the BBB and the SGP it would have 81, but be a seat short in the Senate. D66 and the CDA lean towards PRO, the VVD to the right.
The next general election is due by 15 May 2030.
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