Democrats now favored for the Senate as Kansas and Iowa tip their way

A week of Senate polls has turned our forecast around. On Monday the Republicans won the Senate in 52% of our simulations. Today the Democrats win it in 65% and the Republicans in 30%. In the other 5%, Dan Osborn, the Nebraska independent, holds the balance. Our projection is 53 Democratic seats to 47, with an 80% range of 48 to 55.

The House has moved the same way. The Democrats win a majority in 83% of our simulations, up from 73% on Monday, with a projected 236 seats to 199 and an 80% range of 212 to 268. They win both chambers in 64%.

The national vote

The polls give the Democrats 53.7% of the national House vote and the Republicans 45.1%, a lead of 8.6 points. We put it at 52.6% to 46.1%, because in 5 of the last 6 elections the polls overstated the Democrats. One new national poll came out this week: Emerson College (26 October) had the Democrats ahead by 10, 52 to 42. Allowing for Emerson's usual lean, that is closer to 9.

The Senate races that decide it

Kansas is the race most likely to decide control, and it moved furthest this week, 20 points toward the Democrats. Adam Hamilton now wins 56% of our simulations against Roger Marshall, on a projected 49.5% to 48.6%. Three new polls had Hamilton ahead: The Washington Post by 9 (52 to 43), CNN by 4 (49 to 45) and Emerson by 3 (50 to 47). Donald Trump has canceled Saturday's rally in Salina. "I don't feel I have to go to Kansas," he said.

Iowa is the closest Senate race: Josh Turek 53%, Ashley Hinson 47%, on a projected margin of 0.6 points. The newest poll, co/efficient for a Republican sponsor (28 October), had Hinson up 2, 48 to 46. Trump has dropped Sunday's rally in Dubuque as well.

Texas: James Talarico 61%, Ken Paxton 39%, from an even race on Monday. CNN had Talarico up 6, 49 to 43, and A2 Insights up 3. Quantus Insights had Paxton up a point, 49 to 48. JD Vance rallied for Paxton in Weatherford this week.

Ohio's special election: Sherrod Brown 64%, Jon Husted 36%. Suffolk had Brown up 3, 47 to 44.

Maine: Troy Jackson 68%, Susan Collins 32%. CNN had Jackson up 4, 49 to 45, and Marist up 2.

Nebraska and Alaska are Republican-leaning toss-ups: Pete Ricketts wins 56% against Osborn, and Dan Sullivan 56% against Mary Peltola. Michigan leans to Abdul El-Sayed at 78%; CNN had him up 7.

The governors

Georgia is level. Rick Jackson and Keisha Lance Bottoms each get 49.9% of the vote in our projection, and Jackson wins 51% of our simulations, down from 68% on Monday. State Navigate had Bottoms up 3, 50 to 47. Nevada has closed too: Joe Lombardo 52%, down from 82%, after Hart Research had Aaron Ford up 4, 49 to 45. Alaska is a toss-up: Dave Bronson 55%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 45%. In Ohio, Amy Acton is up to 64% against Vivek Ramaswamy; Suffolk had her ahead by 4, 48 to 44. Our projection splits the governors 25 to 25.

If the polls miss again

The Democrats are favored. They are not home yet. Our projection already allows for the usual polling error, but a miss of 2.6 points their way on top of it would keep the Senate Republican, and a miss of 4.1 points would cost them the House. Repeat the miss of 2014, 2016, 2020 or 2024 and the Republicans hold the Senate. Repeat 2016 or 2020 and they hold the House too; in 2020 the polls overstated the Democrats by 6.9 points. Replay all 12 misses since 2002 and the Democrats win the House in 10 and the Senate in 7. The misses have not all gone one way: in 2006, 2010 and 2012 the polls understated the Democrats. Try each year on our forecast page.

Ignore the early vote. About 7.5 million ballots have been cast in the four states we track, and across 75 races since 2016 the early-vote split missed the result by 11 points on average. The first polls close at 6 pm Eastern on Tuesday, and we follow the count live.