SWG has FdI almost 9 points clear as talk turns to a spring election
SWG's poll for Tg La7 puts Fratelli d'Italia on 29.3 and the PD on 20.6, yet has the centre-left ahead on coalitions. Our projection still gives the centre-left 223 of 400 seats.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 30 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
One new Camera poll has appeared since our last round-up. SWG's weekly poll for Tg La7, published on 26 October, had Fratelli d'Italia on 29.3 and the PD on 20.6, a lead of 8.7 points. A week earlier SWG had the gap at 7.4. The Five Star Movement was third on 12.4, Forza Italia on 7.4 and AVS on 6.3. Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale was on 5.6, just ahead of the Lega on 5.4. Thirty per cent of those asked named no party.
No other pollster has published since 22 October, when Lab21, Only Numbers and Termometro Politico had FdI ahead by 7.2 to 8.4 points.
The coalitions
SWG's coalition figures point the other way from its party lead. It had the centre-left, counting the PD, the M5S, AVS, Italia Viva and +Europa, on 44.9, and the centre-right of FdI, Forza Italia, the Lega and Noi Moderati on 44.1. SWG leaves Futuro Nazionale and Azione outside both. A week earlier its figures were 44.6 to 44.0.
Our projection
Our projection has not moved. With FdI on 27.5 and the PD on 20.3 in the poll average, the centre-left wins 223 of the 400 Camera seats on 43.6 per cent of the vote, the centre-right 142 on 41.1, Futuro Nazionale 25 and Azione 10. The centre-left wins a majority in 61 per cent of our simulations, the same as on 26 October. Those figures assume Futuro Nazionale runs alone. If it joins the centre-right, the centre-right takes 224 seats and the centre-left 165.
The poll check
SWG runs close to the other pollsters: its figures differ from theirs by half a point at most, so its 8.7-point lead stands as published. That is a little wider than the 7.1 points in our average.
What comes next
La Repubblica has reported that the vote could come between 16 May and early June 2027, well before the 22 December 2027 deadline. Giorgia Meloni is said to favour an early election, and President Mattarella to have agreed on condition that national and local elections are held on the same day. In SWG's poll, 41 per cent rated the government's work as effective.
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