Italy General electionby 22 Dec 2027in 415 days Centre-left majority 61% No majority in the Camera 0% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com Italy
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New electoral law Our forecast now uses Italy's new electoral law, approved on 8 October 2026: no single-member seats, and 70 extra deputies and 35 extra senators for a coalition that comes first with 42% of the vote. The maps show which coalition leads in each former collegio; those are no longer seats. What changed →
Italy · The threshold

Azione and IV on the edge of Italy's threshold

To win seats a party needs 3% for a list, 10% for a coalition. A list in a coalition needs 1% for its votes to count towards the coalition; linguistic minority lists, such as the SVP, have their own rules.

Every party against the line

  1. Centre-left43.7% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  2. Centre-right41.2% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  3. FdI27.6% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  4. PD20.4% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  5. M5S12.7% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  6. FI7.1% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  7. FN6.7% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  8. AVS6.3% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  9. Lega5.7% on our projection over 99% to clear it
  10. Azione3.0% on our projection 50% to clear it
  11. IV2.4% on our projection 22% to clear it
  12. +Europa1.5% on our projection 2% to clear it
  13. NM1.1% on our projection under 1% to clear it

The black line marks the threshold. The chance allows for how far final polls usually miss for a party of that size (about a point at 5%) as if the election were held today; months out, polls move more than that. Our projection → · Build a coalition →