New electoral law Our forecast now uses Italy's new electoral law, approved on 8 October 2026: no single-member seats, and 70 extra deputies and 35 extra senators for a coalition that comes first with 42% of the vote. The maps show which coalition leads in each former collegio; those are no longer seats. What changed →
Italy · Battleground
Italy's battleground: Rovereto (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U02) is the closest
About three-eighths of the seats are won in single-member seats by the coalition with the most votes; the rest are shared by list. Below, the closest on today's polls, from our projection; it moves with every poll.
- 10within two points
- 38of these change hands since 2022
The closest single-member seats
- Rovereto (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U02)TAA Centre-right by 0.47 pts over Centre-left hold
- Pescara (Abruzzo - U02)ABR Centre-left by 0.51 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Massa (Toscana - U02)TOS Centre-left by 0.61 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Perugia (Umbria - U02)UMB Centre-left by 0.65 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Acireale (Sicilia 2 - U03)SIC2 Centre-left by 1.2 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- La Spezia (Liguria - U04)LIG Centre-left by 1.2 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Bolzano/Bozen (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U03)TAA SVP by 1.2 pts over Centre-left hold
- Chieti (Abruzzo - U01)ABR Centre-left by 1.4 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Pesaro (Marche - U04)MAR Centre-left by 1.6 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Eboli (Campania 2 - U07)CAM2 Centre-left by 1.6 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Messina (Sicilia 2 - U06)SIC2 Centre-left by 2.1 pts over Others gain from Others
- Reggio di Calabria (Calabria - U05)CAL Centre-right by 2.2 pts over Centre-left hold
- Monza (Lombardia 1 - U01)LOM1 Centre-right by 2.2 pts over Centre-left hold
- Trento (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U01)TAA Centre-left by 2.7 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Terni (Umbria - U01)UMB Centre-right by 2.8 pts over Centre-left hold
- Trieste (Friuli-Venezia Giulia - U03)FVG Centre-left by 2.9 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Lucca (Toscana - U03)TOS Centre-right by 3.1 pts over Centre-left hold
- Cologno Monzese (Lombardia 1 - U03)LOM1 Centre-left by 3.2 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Ferrara (Emilia-Romagna - U09)EMR Centre-right by 3.3 pts over Centre-left hold
- Chieri (Piemonte 1 - U04)PIE1 Centre-right by 3.6 pts over Centre-left hold
- Roma – Municipio XIV (Lazio 1 - U07)LAZ1 Centre-left by 3.9 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Parma (Emilia-Romagna - U02)EMR Centre-left by 4.3 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Galatina (Puglia - U10)PUG Centre-left by 4.4 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Ascoli Piceno (Marche - U01)MAR Centre-right by 4.8 pts over Centre-left hold
- Sesto San Giovanni (Lombardia 1 - U06)LOM1 Centre-left by 4.8 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Moncalieri (Piemonte 1 - U05)PIE1 Centre-left by 4.8 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto (Sicilia 2 - U05)SIC2 Centre-left by 4.9 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Rimini (Emilia-Romagna - U11)EMR Centre-left by 5.1 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Roma – Municipio V (Lazio 1 - U03)LAZ1 Centre-left by 5.3 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Rozzano (Lombardia 1 - U04)LOM1 Centre-right by 5.5 pts over Centre-left hold
- Padova (Veneto 2 - U03)VEN2 Centre-right by 5.5 pts over Centre-left hold
- Arezzo (Toscana - U09)TOS Centre-left by 5.6 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Brescia (Lombardia 3 - U04)LOM3 Centre-right by 5.7 pts over Centre-left hold
- Velletri (Lazio 1 - U08)LAZ1 Centre-right by 5.8 pts over Centre-left hold
- Bagheria (Sicilia 1 - U03)SIC1 Centre-left by 6.6 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Vibo Valentia (Calabria - U04)CAL Centre-right by 6.7 pts over Centre-left hold
- Benevento (Campania 2 - U03)CAM2 Centre-left by 6.8 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Altamura (Puglia - U06)PUG Centre-left by 7.2 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Guidonia Montecelio (Lazio 1 - U09)LAZ1 Centre-right by 7.7 pts over Centre-left hold
- Lecce (Puglia - U09)PUG Centre-left by 8.3 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Grosseto (Toscana - U01)TOS Centre-left by 8.3 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Brindisi (Puglia - U07)PUG Centre-left by 8.3 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Forlì (Emilia-Romagna - U10)EMR Centre-left by 8.5 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Macerata (Marche - U02)MAR Centre-right by 8.5 pts over Centre-left hold
- Carbonia (Sardegna - U02)SAR Centre-left by 8.5 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Mantova (Lombardia 4 - U04)LOM4 Centre-right by 8.6 pts over Centre-left hold
- Legnano (Lombardia 1 - U05)LOM1 Centre-right by 8.7 pts over Centre-left hold
- Venezia (Veneto 1 - U01)VEN1 Centre-right by 8.7 pts over Centre-left hold
- Savona (Liguria - U01)LIG Centre-right by 8.9 pts over Centre-left hold
- Roma – Municipio X (Lazio 1 - U05)LAZ1 Centre-left by 9.0 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Prato (Toscana - U06)TOS Centre-left by 9.2 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Rieti (Lazio 2 - U02)LAZ2 Centre-right by 9.3 pts over Centre-left hold
- L'Aquila (Abruzzo - U03)ABR Centre-right by 9.5 pts over Centre-left hold
- Campobasso (Molise - U01)MOL Centre-left by 9.6 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Collegno (Piemonte 1 - U03)PIE1 Centre-left by 11.0 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Nuoro (Sardegna - U03)SAR Centre-left by 11.1 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Ancona (Marche - U03)MAR Centre-left by 11.1 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Taranto (Puglia - U08)PUG Centre-left by 11.4 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Ragusa (Sicilia 2 - U01)SIC2 Centre-left by 11.6 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
- Pisa (Toscana - U04)TOS Centre-left by 11.7 pts over Centre-right gain from Centre-right
Nothing matches.
Gains among the closest
- Centre-left from Centre-right 37
- Centre-left from Others 1
The single-member seats by coalition
76 of 147 single-member seats change hands since 2022 on our projection.