Three polls put FdI six to eight points ahead of the PD
Fratelli d'Italia is on 27.4 in our average and the PD on 20.3, each up 0.2, with little separating the week's three polls.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 19 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Three polls of the Italian vote were published in the week to 21 October, and they told much the same story. Our average has FdI on 27.4 per cent and the PD on 20.3, each up 0.2 points over the last week of polling. M5S is on 12.5, down 0.3. FI is on 7.4, unchanged, FN on 7.3, down 0.4, AVS on 6.3 and the Lega on 5.7. Azione is on 3.2.
Leads of 6.4 to 7.8 points
SWG, with fieldwork ending on 19 October, had FdI on 28.1, the PD on 20.7 and M5S on 12.7, a lead of 7.4 points. FN was on 7.2, FI on 7.1, AVS on 6.4 and the Lega on 5.2. Every figure was within a point of our average. SWG has tended to show FdI 0.5 points higher and FI 0.5 points lower than other pollsters across 187 polls; with its usual differences taken off, the lead is 6.8 points.
Only Numbers, which finished on 15 October, had FdI on 27.8, the PD on 20 and M5S on 11.1, a lead of 7.8 points. Its M5S figure was 1.4 points below our average, but that is usual for it: across 39 polls it has tended to show M5S 1.1 points lower than other pollsters, a clear difference. It also had the Lega on 6, and it usually shows the Lega 0.8 points higher. Like for like, its poll reads FdI 27.5, PD 19.7 and M5S 12.2.
Termometro Politico, also finishing on 15 October, had the narrowest lead: FdI 27.5, PD 21.1, a gap of 6.4 points. M5S was on 12.5, exactly our average. Its usual differences from other pollsters are small, all 0.2 points or less, so its poll reads almost the same once they are taken off.
All three polls had FdI first, the PD second and M5S third, and none differed from our average by more than the normal scatter of a single poll, about 3 points on a party's share 19 times in 20.
Our forecast
Our projection gives the centre-left 222 seats in the Camera dei Deputati, more than the 201 needed for a majority. The centre-right would have 142, FN 26 and Azione 10.
The centre-left wins a majority in the Camera in 61 per cent of our simulations, and the same share gives it a majority in both chambers, with 111 of 200 seats in the Senate in our projection. The Lega clears the 3 per cent threshold in 88 per cent of them.
The next general election is due by 22 December 2027 at the latest, 427 days away. Our average draws on 27 polls published in the last 30 days.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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