Analyse: elke nieuwe peiling in context

Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0 Spanje · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026 · vastgezet

Spain votes on 29 November: the last poll before the call had the PP 8.4 points ahead (in het Engels)

DYM's poll was taken before the housing vote and the dissolution. It usually shows the PP higher than other pollsters; allowing for that, the lead is 6.5 points.

Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 2 november 2026

When the polls agree too much: herding, and how our forecast guards against it (in het Engels)

Polls of a close race should scatter by chance. In 2024 they barely did. Here is why that matters, and the four things our model does so a pack of look-alike polls cannot make it overconfident.

Photo: Nick-D, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australië · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

Essential has One Nation level with Labor as the Coalition edges up (in het Engels)

Essential puts Labor and One Nation on 28 each, while Roy Morgan has Labor 3.5 points clear of One Nation. Our projection: One Nation 63 seats, Labor 55, and a hung parliament 97 per cent likely.

Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0 Canada · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

Liberal lead dips in both new polls, but the majority holds (in het Engels)

Liaison Strategies has the Liberals 13 points ahead and Nanos 19.5, both closer than the week before. Our projection trims Mark Carney's party to 238 seats, still a majority in more than 99 per cent of our simulations.

Photo: WrS.tm.pl Polen · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

Ipsos puts PiS on 26 as the right's majority chance edges down to 90 per cent (in het Engels)

Ipsos's poll for TVP Info has KO 8 points ahead, with PiS well above where other pollsters have it. Our projection gives the parties of the right a majority in 90 per cent of our simulations, down from 92.

Photo: Michielverbeek, CC BY-SA 4.0 Nederland · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

Verian ziet het kabinet-Jetten zakken naar 44 zetels, en de tijd voor het Belastingplan dringt

Verian zet PRO 7 zetels voor de PVV en de drie kabinetspartijen samen op 44. Onze projectie: PRO 28, PVV 20, JA21 18.

Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0 Italië · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

SWG has FdI almost 9 points clear as talk turns to a spring election (in het Engels)

SWG's poll for Tg La7 puts Fratelli d'Italia on 29.3 and the PD on 20.6, yet has the centre-left ahead on coalitions. Our projection still gives the centre-left 223 of 400 seats.

Photo: Kritzolina, CC BY-SA 4.0 Duitsland · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

INSA and Forsa keep the AfD clear, and our projection now gives it 200 seats (in het Engels)

Both polls since our last round-up have the AfD ahead, by 10.5 points with INSA and 6 with Forsa. Our projection: AfD 200 seats on 27.7 per cent, CDU/CSU 148.

Photo: François GOGLINS, CC BY-SA 4.0 Frankrijk · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

Le Pen still 18 points clear in a quiet week for polls (in het Engels)

Cluster17's poll, the only one added this week, changes little. Marine Le Pen leads Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 18.2 points in our average, and our forecast gives her a 90 per cent chance of the Élysée.

Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

Labour's projected majority grows to 10 in the week of Healey's first Budget (in het Engels)

Four new polls all have Labour ahead, by 4 to 7 points. Our projection gives Labour 330 seats and a 46 per cent chance of a majority, and the one poll taken partly after the Budget has Labour up 2.

Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 2 november 2026

Georgia, Nevada and Alaska are the closest races for governor (in het Engels)

Thirty-six states elect a governor on Tuesday. Most look settled, but in Georgia, Nevada and Alaska the polling averages are within about a point and a half, and Ohio is not far behind.

Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0 Spanje · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

A month out, the PP and Vox hold 199 seats in our projection (in het Engels)

Spain votes on 29 November. Our projection gives the PP 134 seats on 31.1 per cent and Vox 65, a joint majority in 99 per cent of our simulations. Every private poll still has the PP first.

Photo: secretlondon123, CC BY-SA 2.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · De peilingen van de week · 23 oktober 2026

YouGov puts Labour four points ahead in a quiet polling week (in het Engels)

One poll was published in the week to 21 October, and our average barely moved: Labour 27.8, Reform UK 22.5, the Conservatives 21.5.

Photo: Gerd Eichmann, CC BY-SA 4.0 Frankrijk · De peilingen van de week · 23 oktober 2026

Le Pen leads all four polls; second place stays open (in het Engels)

Marine Le Pen is on 34.6 in our average, up 0.8, while Mélenchon and Philippe trade second place depending on the pollster.

Photo: WrS.tm.pl Polen · De peilingen van de week · 21 oktober 2026

KO leads both polls as KKP gains in our average (in het Engels)

KO is on 33.4 in our average and PiS on 21.3. Our forecast still gives the right-wing parties together a likely Sejm majority.

Photo: Alexkom000, CC BY 4.0 Italië · De peilingen van de week · 21 oktober 2026

Three polls put FdI six to eight points ahead of the PD (in het Engels)

Fratelli d'Italia is on 27.4 in our average and the PD on 20.3, each up 0.2, with little separating the week's three polls.

Photo: Times, CC BY-SA 3.0 Duitsland · De peilingen van de week · 21 oktober 2026

Four polls put the AfD between 7 and 12 points ahead (in het Engels)

The AfD is on 26.1 in our average, up 0.8 points, while the SPD and the Linke each fell 0.6 in a week of four polls.

Photo: Leafsfan67, CC BY-SA 4.0 Canada · De peilingen van de week · 21 oktober 2026

Liberals lead by 15 and 22 points in two new polls (in het Engels)

The Liberals are on 47 in our average, up 0.5, and our forecast gives them a majority in over 99 percent of simulations.

Photo: Dietmar Rabich, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australië · De peilingen van de week · 21 oktober 2026

YouGov puts One Nation three points ahead of Labor (in het Engels)

One poll this week had One Nation on 27 and Labor on 24. Our forecast still points to a hung parliament with One Nation largest.

Nederland · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

Peil.nl ziet FvD en JA21 hoger, VVD en PVV lager dan andere peilers

Peil.nl geeft FvD doorgaans 2,2 punten hoger weer dan andere peilers. Volgens zijn staat van dienst heeft het PRO met 2,2 punten overschat.

Photo: P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 2 november 2026

The Senate is likely to come down to six races the polls cannot call (in het Engels)

Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Nebraska, Texas and Ohio are all within three points in the polling averages. Democrats need only some of them, but they cannot afford to lose all of them.

Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 16 oktober 2026

353 seats? The mega-poll's Labour majority comes from a split right, not tactical voting (in het Engels)

Run the mega-poll's own vote shares through our model and Labour still gets 358 seats. The difference from our 316 is a weaker Conservative Party and a stronger Restore Britain, not the tactical voting the coverage focused on.

Photo: Aawiosnaa, CC BY 4.0 Polen · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

Polls understated PiS in 31 of 32 final surveys since 2024 (in het Engels)

At four national votes since Tusk took office, final polls put PiS or its candidate too low. Our forecast makes no allowance for it.

Photo: Nebojša Tejić Spanje · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

Private polls understated Spain's PSOE at six of eight elections (in het Engels)

104 of 142 private final polls since 2004 had the PSOE too low, but even a repeat of 2023 would probably leave the PP and Vox a majority.

Photo: Jacques Paquier, CC BY 2.0 Frankrijk · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

France's Assembly would stay hung if it were elected now (in het Engels)

Our seat projection puts the left on 228 of 577 seats and the RN on 118, built on year-old Assembly polls and 2024's run-off pattern.

Photo: Canale ufficiale, CC BY-SA 2.0 Italië · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

Polls had Five Star 3.3 points too high at Italian regionals (in het Engels)

At general elections the same pollsters had the M5S too low. Our forecast corrects for that, and the 42% bonus may hang on which pattern holds.

Photo: TobyKohlhagen, CC BY 4.0 Australië · Analyse · 11 oktober 2026

Populist-right poll rises kept 82% at elections, other challengers 26% (in het Engels)

In 29 mid-term poll climbs across nine countries, the populist right held most of its gain and others did not. One Nation's rise is the largest yet.

Photo: Wilfredor Canada · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

Nanos: the NDP higher and the Conservatives lower, as at past elections (in het Engels)

Nanos has tended to show the NDP 2.3 points above other pollsters. Its final polls at eight elections overstated the NDP by 1.8 points.

Photo: Vysotsky, CC BY-SA 4.0 Nederland · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026

Verian ziet PVV 2 punten winnen, PRO nog altijd 5 punten voor

De PVV staat met 12,8 procent 1,1 punt boven ons gemiddelde. Rekening houdend met het gebruikelijke patroon van Verian is niet de PVV maar D66 tweede.

Photo: Steffen Prößdorf, CC BY-SA 4.0 Duitsland · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

INSA: higher on the AfD, lower on the Greens (in het Engels)

INSA has tended to show the AfD 0.7 points above other pollsters. Its final polls at four Bundestag elections were 1.1 points out per party.

Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 2 november 2026

Two days out, the polls have hardly moved. Neither has our forecast (in het Engels)

Democrats lead the generic ballot by about nine points, Trump's approval is in the high thirties, and the Senate battleground has spread into Kansas, Texas and Alaska. Here is where everything stands before Tuesday.

Photo: Rory Arnold / No 10 Downing Street, OGL 3.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 15 oktober 2026

The worst Labour polling miss since 1970, hidden by a landslide (in het Engels)

Every final poll put Labour too high, by four points on average. The landslide made the seat calls look right, so pollsters escaped the inquiries of 1992 and 2015.

Photo: Vox España Frankrijk · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

Le Pen leads for 2027, and her run-off rival matters most (in het Engels)

Our forecast gives Marine Le Pen an 80% chance of the presidency, and almost all of the doubt depends on who reaches the run-off against her.

Photo: European People's Party, CC BY 2.0 Spanje · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

PP and Vox on course for a Spanish majority (in het Engels)

Our projection gives the PP 137 seats and Vox 64, a majority together in practically all of our 2,000 simulated elections.

Photo: Governo Italiano, CC BY 3.0 it Italië · Analyse · 12 oktober 2026

Italy's 42% bonus hinges on where Vannacci's party stands (in het Engels)

Our projection gives the centre-left 223 seats under the new law, but with Futuro Nazionale inside the centre-right the bonus switches sides.

Photo: Alison Newman, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australië · Analyse · 10 oktober 2026

The Coalition leads in Victoria but falls short of a majority (in het Engels)

Our projection gives the Coalition 43 of 88 seats, Labor 26 and One Nation 13, with no majority in 64 per cent of simulations.

Photo: Januszk57, CC BY-SA 4.0 Polen · Analyse · 7 oktober 2026

Poland's right splinters, but together it still outnumbers Tusk's coalition (in het Engels)

Our projection puts KO first on 193 seats, yet four parties to its right would hold 246, and the 5% threshold decides much of the rest.

Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0 Canada · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026

Liaison Strategies has the NDP 4.4 points above the average (in het Engels)

Its NDP figure of 14.9% is high even for a pollster that usually shows the party 1.4 points above others. The Liberals lead by 16.8 points.

Photo: Franziska Kelch (WMDE), CC BY-SA 4.0 Duitsland · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026

Infratest dimap has the AfD 7 points clear of the CDU/CSU (in het Engels)

The Greens' 16% is 1.2 points above our average. Infratest dimap usually shows the CDU/CSU a little higher than other pollsters.

Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 30 oktober 2026

Two Dan Sullivans on the ballot, and Alaska won't finish counting until November 18 (in het Engels)

A namesake on the ballot, a ranked-choice count that ends on November 18, and a fix to our own forecast: Mary Peltola now edges ahead of Senator Dan Sullivan.

Photo: London Assembly, CC BY 3.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

Greens have shed two-fifths of their poll peak, Reform a quarter (in het Engels)

The Greens have lost a larger share of their peak support than any other party, yet the two by-elections they fought hardest were their best since 2015.

Photo: Thomas Bresson, CC BY 4.0 Frankrijk · Analyse · 12 oktober 2026

Polls overstated the RN at all six Assembly votes since 2002 (in het Engels)

Our replay of French final polls finds the National Rally polled too high at every legislative first round and presidential run-off, but not in presidential first rounds.

Photo: Nick-D, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australië · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

Roy Morgan: lower on One Nation, higher on the Greens (in het Engels)

Roy Morgan has tended to show One Nation 1.5 points below other pollsters. At past elections its final polls overstated the Greens and Labor.

Photo: Adrian Grycuk, CC BY-SA 3.0 pl Polen · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

United Surveys: close to the average on the big parties (in het Engels)

On KO, PiS and Konfederacja it is in line with other pollsters. It has tended to show PSL and Lewica a little higher.

Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0 Italië · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

SWG: close to the field, far from the results (in het Engels)

SWG's figures differ from other pollsters' by half a point at most. At past elections its final polls were 3.3 points out per party.

Photo: Antonio.velez, CC BY-SA 3.0 es Spanje · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

The CIS: the PSOE 4.2 points higher than everyone else (in het Engels)

The CIS has tended to show the PSOE well above other pollsters and the PP well below. At past elections its final polls were closer to the result.

Photo: Quintin Soloviev Verenigde Staten · De peilingen van de week · 30 oktober 2026

Democrats now favored for the Senate as Kansas and Iowa tip their way (in het Engels)

Four days out, our forecast gives the Democrats a 65% chance of the Senate, up from 43% on Monday, and 83% for the House. A polling miss like 2014, 2016, 2020 or 2024 would still keep the Senate Republican.

Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

Reform's seat cliff: each point now worth about 28 seats (in het Engels)

Restore Britain takes less from Reform in the polls than its share suggests. The bigger danger for Farage is how fast seats fall with each lost point.

Photo: Kerry Raymond, CC BY 4.0 Australië · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026

Essential has Labor 4 points ahead of One Nation (in het Engels)

Labor is up 2.7 points and the Coalition down 4.3 since Essential's last poll. One Nation is 1.8 points below our average.

Photo: Mateusz Opasiński, CC BY 4.0 Polen · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026

Social Changes has PiS 3.3 points above the average (in het Engels)

Its PiS figure of 24.1% is in line with how it usually differs from other pollsters. Allowing for that, KO's lead is 10.2 points.

Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0 Italië · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026

SWG has FdI 6.8 points ahead of the PD, with little change (in het Engels)

No party moved more than 0.3 points since SWG's poll a week earlier. Its figures sit close to the other pollsters'.

Photo: Remi Mathis, CC BY-SA 3.0 Frankrijk · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

Ifop: a slightly higher Philippe, and a long record (in het Engels)

Ifop's polls differ little from other pollsters'. At past elections its final polls were 1.4 points out per party, and overstated the RN.

Photo: Luis García (Zaqarbal), CC BY-SA 3.0 es Spanje · Analyse · 3 oktober 2026

The CIS, its rivals and the arithmetic of 52 provinces (in het Engels)

Spain's public pollster puts the PSOE ahead while every private pollster in our average puts the PP in front, and the seat law magnifies whichever proves right.

Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 26 oktober 2026

A pollster made up its numbers. Here is what that did to our forecast, and what we changed (in het Engels)

Wedgewood Polls admitted on October 20 that its surveys were fabricated. We held 25 of them, and they mattered in one race above all: Mississippi. Every one is gone, along with nine polls from a linked firm.

Photo: Owain.davies, CC BY-SA 4.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

Reform UK has lost over a quarter of its peak support (in het Engels)

A year ago Reform led on 31%. It now averages 23%, one poll has it third, and Farage is less popular than his party.

Photo: Le grand Cricri, CC BY-SA 3.0 Frankrijk · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026

Ifop has Philippe up 3 points, 12 behind Le Pen (in het Engels)

Édouard Philippe's 21% is 3.5 points above our average. Ifop has tended to show him a little higher than other pollsters, but not by that much.

Photo: Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australië · Analyse · 2 oktober 2026

Labor leads in NSW but falls short of a majority (in het Engels)

Five months before the 13 March election, our projection gives Labor 43 of 93 seats, four short, with One Nation on eight.

Photo: Architect of the Capitol Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 26 oktober 2026

Upset watch: the polling miss that would flip each close race (in het Engels)

Nine Senate and governor races are within 2.1 points on our numbers. A polling miss like 2024's flips seven of them to the Republicans; one like 2012's flips the other two to the Democrats.

Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

YouGov's Labour share now runs four points below other pollsters (in het Engels)

Through 2025 YouGov's Labour figure matched the rest of the industry. Since spring a four-point gap has opened, and YouGov's own first-stage answers show little of it.

Photo: Xfigpower, CC BY-SA 3.0 Frankrijk · Analyse · 4 oktober 2026

Parties sliding late in polls fell further 24 times in 29 (in het Engels)

Across 65 elections in nine countries, parties losing two points late usually finished below their final polls, a pattern that matters for France's crowded first round.

Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 26 oktober 2026

Every other forecaster has the Democrats favorites for the Senate. We don't (in het Engels)

Silver Bulletin gives the Democrats 76%, Split Ticket 65%, Decision Desk HQ 56%. We give them 43%. The gap comes down to one decision, and on November 4 we will score every forecast, ours included.

Photo: The Conservative Party, CC BY 2.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

56 of 59 final polls understated Tories against UKIP and Reform (in het Engels)

At every general election since 2015 final polls put the Conservatives too close to the challenger on the right, by 3.5 points on average, though Wales broke the pattern.

Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 22 oktober 2026

Stop watching the early vote. It won't tell you who wins (in het Engels)

Read as results, early-vote party splits missed by 11 points across 75 races. Comparing them with the same day last time does no better: a 10-point early-vote swing has gone with about 1 point in the result.

Photo: UK Prime Minister, CC BY 4.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

Burnham's honeymoon looks brief by Ipsos's measure, longer by others' (in het Engels)

Ipsos's long series puts Andy Burnham's start among the weakest since 1990, yet most pollsters rate him positively and Labour is six points up.

Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0 Verenigde Staten · De peilingen van de week · 21 oktober 2026

Ohio polls trim Democratic chances as the Senate stays a toss-up (in het Engels)

With 13 days to go, our forecast gives the Democrats a 52% chance of the Senate and 77% for the House. This week's 22 polls were all race polls.

Photo: Number 10, CC BY 4.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

Labour's 7-point mid-term deficit is normal for Britain, not elsewhere (in het Engels)

British governments sink about 8 points below their last result by mid-term, more than three times the drop elsewhere, then win much of it back.

Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0 Verenigde Staten · De peilingen van de week · 16 oktober 2026

Democrats hold their lead in a week with one new poll (in het Engels)

Our generic-ballot average is almost unchanged with 18 days to go, and our forecast gives the Democrats an 81 percent chance of winning the House.

Photo: Stephen.Bingham, CC BY-SA 2.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Analyse · 12 oktober 2026

Lib Dems top our May 2027 council projection as Reform gains (in het Engels)

Our ward-by-ward projection of 215 English councils puts three parties within 120 seats of each other and leaves Reform's newest councils exposed.

Photo: w_lemay, CC BY-SA 2.0 Verenigde Staten · Nieuwe peiling · 16 oktober 2026

RMG Research poll gives Democrats an 11-point lead (in het Engels)

The lead is wider than in RMG Research's September poll, and wider still once its usual difference from other pollsters is taken into account.

Photo: secretlondon123, CC BY-SA 2.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Peiler · 5 oktober 2026

More in Common: higher on the Conservatives, lower on the Greens (in het Engels)

Across 102 polls it has tended to show the Conservatives 1.7 points above other pollsters. Its one final poll, in 2024, was 1.5 points out per party.

Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

North Carolina mail ballots trail 2022 pace equally for both parties (in het Engels)

Measured against their own registered voters, North Carolina Democrats and Republicans are returning mail ballots at about 70 percent of their 2022 pace, with Maine ahead.

Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · De peilingen van de week · 5 oktober 2026

Three polls, three Labour leads, and no agreement on second place (in het Engels)

Labour rose a point in our average this week. The three pollsters agree on the size of its lead but not on who is behind it.

Photo: P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

Early vote counts missed results by 11 points across 75 races (in het Engels)

We matched pre-Election Day party splits with results in 75 state races since 2016. Alone they miss badly; added to polls, their state-level signal did not hold up.

Photo: Christian David, CC BY-SA 4.0 Verenigd Koninkrijk · Nieuwe peiling · 5 oktober 2026

Opinium puts Labour 4.9 points ahead of Reform UK (in het Engels)

Opinium has tended to show Labour higher than other pollsters. With that taken off, its lead is 4.7 points.

Photo: Marilyn Sudkamp, CC BY-SA 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

The Democrats are favored. A normal polling miss could change that (in het Engels)

Forecasters and markets give the Democrats the House at 90% or more. Replay the polls' recent misses and the Senate, and often the House, slips away.

Photo: Ac530, CC BY 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

No independent poll in 45 of 65 close House races (in het Engels)

Party-paid surveys fill the gap, Democratic-side releases outnumber Republican ones 118 to 31, and a single poll drove our own Idaho forecast for weeks.

Photo: Thesavagenorwegian, CC BY 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

Red-state polls have overstated Democrats by 4 points since 2018 (in het Engels)

The Senate majority runs through Republican-leaning states where final polls have missed toward Democrats, and a scenario built on those misses cuts their chances to 42%.

Photo: Missvain, CC BY 4.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 14 oktober 2026

Early mail ballots trail 2022 in two of three tracked states (in het Engels)

Fewer ballots are back in Pennsylvania and North Carolina than at this point in 2022, and past cycles warn against reading the party mix as a forecast.

Photo: LoneStarMike, CC BY 3.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

Eleven races could decide the Senate, and the margin is thin (in het Engels)

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 57% chance of Senate control, but the deciding seat is spread across 11 races and the edge is under two points.

Photo: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 Verenigde Staten · Analyse · 13 oktober 2026

Trump's approval is near the lowest of any midterm since 1946 (in het Engels)

History says a president this unpopular costs his party about 47 House seats, while our forecast has Republicans losing 16.