Essential has One Nation level with Labor as the Coalition edges up
Essential puts Labor and One Nation on 28 each, while Roy Morgan has Labor 3.5 points clear of One Nation. Our projection: One Nation 63 seats, Labor 55, and a hung parliament 97 per cent likely.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 30 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
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Two national polls have been published since our last round-up. Essential Research (fieldwork 21 to 26 October) had Labor and One Nation level on 28, the Coalition on 23 and the Greens on 12. One Nation is up 3 points on Essential's September poll.
Roy Morgan (12 to 25 October) had a different order: Labor 26, the Coalition 23.5, One Nation 22.5 and the Greens 15.5. On Roy Morgan's own two-party-preferred count, Labor leads the Coalition 52.5 to 47.5 and One Nation 55 to 45. Its interviewing came after the attack on Helen Haines on 19 October, and Roy Morgan says the shifts in the week after it were within the margin of error.
Our poll average has Labor on 27.1, One Nation 26.0, the Coalition 22.5 and the Greens 13.5. Over the week the Coalition is up 1.2 points and One Nation down 0.8.
The poll check
Roy Morgan usually has One Nation about 1.5 points lower than other pollsters and the Greens about a point higher. Allowing for that, its 3.5-point gap between Labor and One Nation is closer to 3. Essential usually has the Coalition 1.3 points higher and the Greens 1.4 lower. Allowing for that, its tie becomes a One Nation lead of about 1 point, with the Coalition nearer 22.
Our projection
On today's polls One Nation wins 63 seats, Labor 55, the Coalition 15, independents 11, the Greens 5 and Centre Alliance 1. A week ago One Nation had 64 and the Coalition 14. No party reaches the 76 needed for a majority in 97 per cent of our simulations, up from 96; Labor wins a majority in 1 per cent. One Nation and the Coalition together reach 76 in 52 per cent.
Counted from the primaries on 2025 preference flows, Labor has 51.7 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote against the Coalition. The pollsters' own figures put it at 51.3.
The week
The Finance Minister, Katy Gallagher, said at least nine MPs would have security upgrades to their electorate offices brought forward, and security in the public areas of Parliament House is being stepped up. The Prime Minister is considering duress alarms. Helen Haines, the independent member for Indi, lost both legs in the attack and is in a serious but stable condition in a Melbourne hospital.
What comes next
Victoria holds its state election on 28 November; our projection there has the Coalition on 47 of 88 seats, two more than the 45 needed. New South Wales votes on 13 March. The next federal election is due by 20 May 2028.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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