Australia Next federal electionby 20 May 2028in 565 days Hung parliament 97% Labor majority 1% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com Australia
Closest
Australia · Votes per seat

A seat costs Greens 6.4 times as many votes as One Nation

Australia elects its 150 seats by preferential voting in single-member seats. On our projection, 45 seats go to a different party than a strictly proportional split of the same votes would give. would win no seats at all.

Seats against the vote

  1. One Nation26.0% of the vote 63 seats; 39 in proportion (+24) 0.62 × the average votes per seat
  2. Labor26.6% of the vote 55 seats; 40 in proportion (+15) 0.73 × the average votes per seat
  3. Coalition22.9% of the vote 15 seats; 34 in proportion (-19) 2.29 × the average votes per seat
  4. Greens13.2% of the vote 5 seats; 20 in proportion (-15) 3.97 × the average votes per seat
  5. Others11.2% of the vote 0 seats; 17 in proportion (-17) no seats

"In proportion": each party's share of the seats if they followed its share of our projected vote exactly. What if the polls are wrong? → · The same votes under other countries' rules →