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Move the polls → Every tool →Where the polls stood 19 months before each of the last three general elections, and what happened next. The biggest move from this point: Coalition in 2019, +5.9 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
Coalition led by 0.9. Labor won the vote instead, by 2.7.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition | 34.7 | 31.8 | −2.9 |
| Labor | 33.8 | 34.6 | +0.8 |
| Greens | 12.7 | 12.2 | −0.5 |
| One Nation | 5.9 | 6.4 | +0.5 |
Coalition led by 4.8. Coalition won the vote by 3.1 on 21 May.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition | 39.8 | 35.7 | −4.1 |
| Labor | 35.0 | 32.6 | −2.4 |
| Greens | 9.5 | 12.3 | +2.8 |
| One Nation | 3.2 | 5.0 | +1.8 |
Labor led by 1.5. Coalition won the vote instead, by 8.1.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition | 35.5 | 41.4 | +5.9 |
| Labor | 37.0 | 33.3 | −3.7 |
| Greens | 9.5 | 10.4 | +0.9 |
| One Nation | 8.5 | 3.1 | −5.4 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Party | Today | As in 2025 | As in 2022 | As in 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 26.6 | 27.4 | 24.2 | 22.9 |
| One Nation | 26.0 | 26.5 | 27.8 | 20.6 |
| Coalition | 22.9 | 20.0 | 18.8 | 28.8 |
| Greens | 13.2 | 12.7 | 16.0 | 14.1 |
One Nation and Coalition would overtake in two of the three. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters. Australia's figures are first preferences; the Coalition counts the Liberal, National, LNP and Country Liberal parties together.
Polls: Opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election, Opinion polling for the 2022 Australian federal election, Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
